Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Steven Kenney]

Interesting and great thread. Thanks for the info. Makes me wonder why these 
4011's are so good. I wonder how the 1072 compares. 

-- 
Steven Kenney 
Network Operations Manager 
WaveDirect Telecommunications 
http://www.wavedirect.net 
(519)737-WAVE (9283) 


From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: "af"  
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 12:50:56 AM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

Surprisingly bad BGP results from the CCR2004 
https://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=161044 

-- 
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Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Steven Kenney]

V7? Isn't that a fairy tale? :) 

-- 
Steven Kenney 
Network Operations Manager 
WaveDirect Telecommunications 
http://www.wavedirect.net 
(519)737-WAVE (9283) 


From: "af"  
To: "af"  
Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:51:07 AM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7 



Dennis Burgess 

Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security Engineer, 
Enterprise Wireless Engineer 
Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level 
Cambium: ePMP 

Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition" 
Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services 
Office: 314-735-0270 Website: http://www.linktechs.net 
Create Wireless Coverage's with www.towercoverage.com 

-Original Message- 
From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com 
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:51 PM 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

Surprisingly bad BGP results from the CCR2004 
https://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=161044 

-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com 
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com 

-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com 
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com 
-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com

Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Steven Kenney]

I ran some x86 mikrotik boxes in the past and the nics were indeed the issue we 
had. 

Which brand name fiber cards (sfp+ and higher) would you recommend that is 100% 
compatible with Mikrotik? 

Also running CHR in Vsphere also is an option. Anyone comment on that sort of 
performance? 

-- 
Steven Kenney 
Network Operations Manager 
WaveDirect Telecommunications 
http://www.wavedirect.net 
(519)737-WAVE (9283) 


From: "af"  
To: "af"  
Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 3:08:32 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 



We have some PR2200s still in stock, dual 4 core Xeons. Not exactly I7s though. 



Honestly any decent server should work as long as it has good NICs in it. .. 






Dennis Burgess 


Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security Engineer, 
Enterprise Wireless Engineer 

Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level 

Cambium: ePMP 



Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition” 

Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services 

Office : 314-735-0270 Website: [ http://www.linktechs.net/ | 
http://www.linktechs.net ] 

Create Wireless Coverage’s with [ 
https://mail.wavedirect.org/www.towercoverage.com | www.towercoverage.com ] 





From: AF  On Behalf Of James Howard 
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:55 AM 
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 




Not looking to switch from Mikrotik. Just wanted to know if there are any 
preconfigured i7 or better boxes that anybody’s selling right now. 




From: AF [ [ mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com | mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com ] 
] On Behalf Of [ mailto:fiber...@mail.com | fiber...@mail.com ] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:41 AM 
To: [ mailto:af@af.afmug.com | af@af.afmug.com ] 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 





The Juniper MX204 is awesome and available now, but it'll set you back at least 
ten grand... 





Here's a list of software routers you can try out: 





* VyOS - free, version 1.3 will support XDP with both software and hardware 
offload [ 
https://imsva91-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis/clicktime/v1/query?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.danosproject.org&umid=2CCFDEBF-A575-7F05-908C-03E304C9E10D&auth=079c058f437b7c6303d36c6513e5e8848d0c5ac4-1f675966b1244d6dbea145adbce4f693f5a13320
 | 
https://www.vyos.io/ ] 
* DANOS - free, load it on a white box switch to see some serious Mpps [ 
https://imsva91-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis/clicktime/v1/query?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.danosproject.org&umid=2CCFDEBF-A575-7F05-908C-03E304C9E10D&auth=079c058f437b7c6303d36c6513e5e8848d0c5ac4-1f675966b1244d6dbea145adbce4f693f5a13320
 | 
https://www.danosproject.org/ ] 
* FRR+VPP - free [ 
https://github.com/FRRouting/frr/wiki/Alternate-forwarding-planes:-VPP | 
https://github.com/FRRouting/frr/wiki/Alternate-forwarding-planes:-VPP ] 
* TNSR - $400(?)/year for 10G license [ 
https://imsva91-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis/clicktime/v1/query?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.tnsr.com&umid=2CCFDEBF-A575-7F05-908C-03E304C9E10D&auth=079c058f437b7c6303d36c6513e5e8848d0c5ac4-4e46a7a9d0e82d4f31d55e3745a5ace78d242077
 | 
https://www.tnsr.com/ ] 
* 6wind - ~3k$ for 10G license + 15% yearly [ 
https://www.6wind.com/vrouter-solutions/6wind-turbo-router/ | 
https://www.6wind.com/vrouter-solutions/6wind-turbo-router/ ] 
* Juniper vMX - ̃4k$ for perpetual 10G license with 2 million routes [ 
https://www.juniper.net/us/en/products-services/routing/mx-series/vmx/ | 
https://www.juniper.net/us/en/products-services/routing/mx-series/vmx/ ] 
* TheRouter - the Russian alternative :) [ 
https://imsva91-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis/clicktime/v1/query?url=https%3a%2f%2ftherouter.net&umid=2CCFDEBF-A575-7F05-908C-03E304C9E10D&auth=079c058f437b7c6303d36c6513e5e8848d0c5ac4-2f374aea5294d27435634fca9a02d61a97e9f714
 | 
https://therouter.net/ ] 








Jared 








Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 
From: "James Howard" < [ mailto:ja...@litewire.net | ja...@litewire.net ] > 
To: "'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'" < [ mailto:af@af.afmug.com | 
af@af.afmug.com ] > 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 


So what is awesome and available now? We had an i7 box (network appliance I 
guess) running Mikrotik take a dump so we need to get another backup (or two). 
Nobody seems to have i7 based Mikrotik boxes available. BGP is a must. We’re 
running CHR on our current boxes. 




From: AF [ [ mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com | mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com ] 
] On Behalf Of Dennis Burgess via AF 
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 9:51 AM 
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group < [ mailto:af@af.afmug.com | 
af@af.afmug.com ] > 
Cc: Dennis Burgess < [ mailto:dmburg...@linktechs.net | dmburg...@linktechs.net 
] > 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 




I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7 



Dennis Burgess 

Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Securi

Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Mike Hammett]

https://mikrotik.com/download 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:09:30 AM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

People keep talking about ROS v7 like it's a thing that actually exists... :) 




Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 
From: "Mike Hammett"  
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

That's only until v7, when it'll run native. 


- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions[http://www.ics-il.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL][https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb][https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions][https://twitter.com/ICSIL]
 
Midwest Internet Exchange[http://www.midwest-ix.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix][https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange][https://twitter.com/mdwestix]
 
The Brothers WISP[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp][https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg]
 



 

From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 5:16:55 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

Sometimes I wonder about the business practices of Mikrotik... 

> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 
> From: "Dennis Burgess via AF"  
> To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
> Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> 
> It runs 32 bit in emulation is what I heard. i.e. worse performance than 
> native 32bit.. 
> 
> 
> 
> Dennis Burgess 
> 
> Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
> Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security Engineer, 
> Enterprise Wireless Engineer 
> Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level 
> Cambium: ePMP 
> 
> Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition” 
> Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services 
> Office: 314-735-0270 Website: 
> http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net] 
> Create Wireless Coverage’s with 
> www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com] 
> 
> -Original Message- 
> From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com 
> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:13 AM 
> To: af@af.afmug.com 
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> 
> Well, I did expect it to match the RB4011, or even best it a bit. Alas, it 
> was not to be. Disappointing... 
> 
> Jared 
> 
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 
> > From: "Dennis Burgess via AF"  
> > To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
> > Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
> > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> > 
> > I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Dennis Burgess 
> > 
> > Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless 
> > Engineer, Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, 
> > Security Engineer, Enterprise Wireless Engineer Hurricane Electric: 
> > IPv6 Sage Level 
> > Cambium: ePMP 
> > 
> > Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition" 
> > Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services 
> > Office: 314-735-0270 Website: 
> > http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net] Create 
> > Wireless Coverage's with 
> > www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com] 
> > 
> > -Original Message- 
> > From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com 
> > Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:51 PM 
> > To: af@af.afmug.com 
> > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> > 
> > Surprisingly bad BGP results from the CCR2004 
> > https://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=161044[https://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=161044]
> >  
> > 
> > -- 
> > AF mailing list 
> > AF@af.afmug.com 
> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com[http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com]
> >  
> > 
> > -- 
> > AF mailing list 
> > AF@af.afmug.com 
> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com[http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com]
> >  
> > 
> 
> -- 
> AF mailing list 
> AF@af.afmug.com 
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com[http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com]
>  
> -- 
> AF mailing list 
> AF@af.afmug.com 
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com[http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com]
>  
> 

-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com 
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 AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com 
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com[http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com]
 

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http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com 

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Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[fiberrun]

Mike,

I'm sure you'll argue that ROS v7 exists for some values of "exists", but let's 
be honest, it doesn't exist for any practical values of exists.


Jared
 
 
 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020
From: "Mike Hammett" 
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

https://mikrotik.com/download
 

-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions[http://www.ics-il.com/]
[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL][https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb][https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions][https://twitter.com/ICSIL]
Midwest Internet Exchange[http://www.midwest-ix.com/]
[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix][https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange][https://twitter.com/mdwestix]
The Brothers WISP[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/]
[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp][https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg]


 


From: fiber...@mail.com
To: af@af.afmug.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:09:30 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

People keep talking about ROS v7 like it's a thing that actually exists... :)
 
 
 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020
From: "Mike Hammett" 
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

That's only until v7, when it'll run native.
 

-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions[http://www.ics-il.com/[http://www.ics-il.com/]]
[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL]][https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb[https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb]][https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions[https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions]][https://twitter.com/ICSIL[https://twitter.com/ICSIL]]
Midwest Internet 
Exchange[http://www.midwest-ix.com/[http://www.midwest-ix.com/]]
[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix]][https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange[https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange]][https://twitter.com/mdwestix[https://twitter.com/mdwestix]]
The Brothers 
WISP[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/]]
[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp]][https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg]]


 


From: fiber...@mail.com
To: af@af.afmug.com
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 5:16:55 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

Sometimes I wonder about the business practices of Mikrotik...

> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020
> From: "Dennis Burgess via AF" 
> To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" 
> Cc: "Dennis Burgess" 
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>
> It runs 32 bit in emulation is what I heard.  i.e. worse performance than 
> native 32bit..  
>
>
>
> Dennis Burgess
>
> Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
> Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security Engineer, 
> Enterprise Wireless Engineer
> Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level
> Cambium: ePMP
>
> Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition”
> Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services
> Office: 314-735-0270  Website: 
> http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net][http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net]]
> Create Wireless Coverage’s with 
> www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com][http://www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com]]
>
> -Original Message-
> From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com
> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:13 AM
> To: af@af.afmug.com
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>
> Well, I did expect it to match the RB4011, or even best it a bit. Alas, it 
> was not to be. Disappointing...
>
> Jared
>
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020
> > From: "Dennis Burgess via AF" 
> > To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" 
> > Cc: "Dennis Burgess" 
> > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
> >
> > I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7
> >
> >
> >
> > Dennis Burgess
> >
> > Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless
> > Engineer, Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer,
> > Security Engineer, Enterprise Wireless Engineer Hurricane Electric:
> > IPv6 Sage Level
> > Cambium: ePMP
> >
> > Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition"
> > Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services
> > Office: 314-735-0270  Website: 
> > http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net][http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net]]
> >  Create
> > Wireless Coverage's with 
> > www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com][http://www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com]]
> >
> > -Original Message-
> > From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com
> > Sent: Monday,

Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Mike Hammett]

It does not do BGP yet, no. 

It does not do ARM64 yet, no. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:56:27 AM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

Mike, 

I'm sure you'll argue that ROS v7 exists for some values of "exists", but let's 
be honest, it doesn't exist for any practical values of exists. 


Jared 




Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 
From: "Mike Hammett"  
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

https://mikrotik.com/download 


- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions[http://www.ics-il.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL][https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb][https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions][https://twitter.com/ICSIL]
 
Midwest Internet Exchange[http://www.midwest-ix.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix][https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange][https://twitter.com/mdwestix]
 
The Brothers WISP[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/] 
[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp][https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg]
 



 

From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:09:30 AM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

People keep talking about ROS v7 like it's a thing that actually exists... :) 




Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 
From: "Mike Hammett"  
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

That's only until v7, when it'll run native. 


- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions[http://www.ics-il.com/[http://www.ics-il.com/]] 
[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL[https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL]][https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb[https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb]][https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions[https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions]][https://twitter.com/ICSIL[https://twitter.com/ICSIL]]
 
Midwest Internet 
Exchange[http://www.midwest-ix.com/[http://www.midwest-ix.com/]] 
[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix[https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix]][https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange[https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange]][https://twitter.com/mdwestix[https://twitter.com/mdwestix]]
 
The Brothers 
WISP[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/[http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/]] 
[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp[https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp]][https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg]]
 



 

From: fiber...@mail.com 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 5:16:55 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 

Sometimes I wonder about the business practices of Mikrotik... 

> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 
> From: "Dennis Burgess via AF"  
> To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
> Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> 
> It runs 32 bit in emulation is what I heard. i.e. worse performance than 
> native 32bit.. 
> 
> 
> 
> Dennis Burgess 
> 
> Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless Engineer, 
> Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security Engineer, 
> Enterprise Wireless Engineer 
> Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level 
> Cambium: ePMP 
> 
> Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition” 
> Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services 
> Office: 314-735-0270 Website: 
> http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net][http://www.linktechs.net[http://www.linktechs.net]]
>  
> Create Wireless Coverage’s with 
> www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com][http://www.towercoverage.com[http://www.towercoverage.com]]
>  
> 
> -Original Message- 
> From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com 
> Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:13 AM 
> To: af@af.afmug.com 
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> 
> Well, I did expect it to match the RB4011, or even best it a bit. Alas, it 
> was not to be. Disappointing... 
> 
> Jared 
> 
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 
> > From: "Dennis Burgess via AF"  
> > To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group"  
> > Cc: "Dennis Burgess"  
> > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out 
> > 
> > I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Dennis Burgess 
> > 
> > Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless 
> > Engineer, Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, 
> > Security Engineer, Enterprise Wireless Engineer Hurricane Electric: 
> > IPv6 Sage Level 
> > Cambium: ePMP 
> > 
> > Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition" 
> > Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & 

[AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[Chuck McCown]

> 
> 
> We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
> Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no 
> paint or flags. 
> I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
> phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
> some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not 
> sure the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than 
> the camcorder on the ground.
>  
> I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
> view would see the flags. 
> Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
> Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?
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Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[Mike Hammett]

Hrm, not a bad idea. quicker, better paint view. 

Do both! ;-) 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: "Chuck McCown"  
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08:07 AM 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 














We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging. 
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags. 
I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage? I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images. It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route. Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use. Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground. 

I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags. 
Be good for engineering I would think. Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth. I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion? 


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Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[David Coudron]

Chuck,

I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.


David Coudron | 
david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 
612-991-7474 | fax 612-454-1546

Advantenon, Inc. | www.advantenon.com |3500 
Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720



Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on 
LinkedIn  |  Advantenon on 
Twitter




From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks




We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.
I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.

I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.
Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?
-- 
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AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com

Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out

[Josh Luthman]

Baltic seems to be the go to for x86 Mikrotik.  He seems to always be on
top of it.

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 3:13 PM Kurt Fankhauser 
wrote:

> I will second the Baltic Networks Vengence 2 CHR. Has been nothing but
> totally reliable since we got one in January. Only pushing about 1.5gbps
> through it though, but BGP converge times are insanely fast and it was darn
> near the same cost as a CCR1072.
>
> On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 12:25 PM James Howard  wrote:
>
>> Yeah, there seems to be is the key……  I did that with the last one and
>> had some compatibility issues with the SFP+ cards and didn’t really end up
>> saving any money over buying one already put together.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Adam Moffett
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 12, 2020 11:13 AM
>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>>
>>
>>
>> I'd imagine you can source a pretty burly network appliance PC from
>> somewhere.  There seem to be dozens of options.
>>
>>
>>
>> On 5/12/2020 11:57 AM, James Howard wrote:
>>
>> Baltic says they aren’t sure when they’re going to get the Maxxwave in
>> again.  We have one of the Maxxwave i7s and would just get more if they
>> were available.  I was hoping Dennis would reply.  They don’t seem to list
>> the PowerRouter that they used to sell on their site anymore.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com ] *On
>> Behalf Of *Ken Hohhof
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:45 AM
>> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
>> 
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>>
>>
>>
>> Baltic/Maxxwave has one, but their web store shows out of stock, is it
>> actually discontinued?  Linktechs might have one, if you don’t want to
>> build your own.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *James Howard
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:17 AM
>> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>>
>>
>>
>> So what is awesome and available now?  We had an i7 box (network
>> appliance I guess) running Mikrotik take a dump so we need to get another
>> backup (or two).  Nobody seems to have i7 based Mikrotik boxes available.
>> BGP is a must.  We’re running CHR on our current boxes.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com ] *On
>> Behalf Of *Dennis Burgess via AF
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 12, 2020 9:51 AM
>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
>> *Cc:* Dennis Burgess 
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>>
>>
>>
>> I would not expect it to be "AWSOME" till v7
>>
>>
>>
>> Dennis Burgess
>>
>> Mikrotik : Trainer, Network Associate, Routing Engineer, Wireless
>> Engineer, Traffic Control Engineer, Inter-Networking Engineer, Security
>> Engineer, Enterprise Wireless Engineer
>> Hurricane Electric: IPv6 Sage Level
>> Cambium: ePMP
>>
>> Author of "Learn RouterOS- Second Edition"
>> Link Technologies, Inc -- Mikrotik & WISP Support Services
>> Office: 314-735-0270  Website: http://www.linktechs.net
>> Create Wireless Coverage's with www.towercoverage.com
>>
>> -Original Message-
>> From: AF  On Behalf Of fiber...@mail.com
>> Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:51 PM
>> To: af@af.afmug.com
>> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] CCR2004 coming out
>>
>> Surprisingly bad BGP results from the CCR2004
>> https://forum.mikrotik.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=161044
>>
>> --
>> AF mailing list
>> AF@af.afmug.com
>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>
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>> --
>>
>> *Total Control Panel*
>>
>> Login 
>>
>> To: ja...@litewire.net
>> 
>>
>> From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com
>>
>> *You received this message because the domain afmug.com
>>  is on your allow list.*
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> *Total Control Panel*
>>
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>>
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>> 
>>
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>>
>> *You received this message because the domain afmug.com
>>  is on your allow list.*
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>> 
>>
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>>
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Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[chuck]

That sounds good.  I would like to know if he has to be prexact on his 
altitudes and what kind of software he uses for the stitching.  

From: David Coudron 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:38 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

Chuck,

I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.

  

David Coudron | david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 612-991-7474 | fax 
612-454-1546 



Advantenon, Inc. | www.advantenon.com |3500 Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, 
Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720



Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on LinkedIn  |  Advantenon on Twitter







From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 




   
  We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.  
  I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.

  I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.  
  Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?



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[AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Bill Prince]

  
  
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you
  look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is
  actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the
  action/effect, we will know more sometime between May 24 and May
  30. Much of the country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that
  negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it
  for 14-18 days.


bp



On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
  wrote:


  
  

  

  
  
  

  

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

From: Bill Prince 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.



bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



   



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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Josh Luthman]

Agreed.  Looks to me like we also have a lot of positive tests during the
week and weekdays are much smaller.  We should be concerned about the
overall picture, not the peaks and valleys.

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Bill Prince  wrote:

> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> [image: image]
>
> --
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>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide
in some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or
not that would be a covid related death and add to the graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM  wrote:

> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
> except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
> But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase
> 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima
> steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
> a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times
> over the past few months...
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> bp
> 
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> [image: image]
>
> --
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

With curve fitting you have to consider things like simulated annealing and 
local minima.  Lots of ways to project a trend, but peaks and valleys, 
especially periodic features like this are very good indicators.  
The stock market calls these “flags” and flags can make you rich.  

From: Josh Luthman 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:01 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Agreed.  Looks to me like we also have a lot of positive tests during the week 
and weekdays are much smaller.  We should be concerned about the overall 
picture, not the peaks and valleys.


Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Bill Prince  wrote:

  I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

  Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.



bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



 
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  AF@af.afmug.com
  http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Josh Luthman]

Well yes but I'm not gambling on deaths from the corona.

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 11:11 AM  wrote:

> With curve fitting you have to consider things like simulated annealing
> and local minima.  Lots of ways to project a trend, but peaks and valleys,
> especially periodic features like this are very good indicators.
> The stock market calls these “flags” and flags can make you rich.
>
> *From:* Josh Luthman
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:01 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
> Agreed.  Looks to me like we also have a lot of positive tests during the
> week and weekdays are much smaller.  We should be concerned about the
> overall picture, not the peaks and valleys.
>
> Josh Luthman
> Office: 937-552-2340
> Direct: 937-552-2343
> 1100 Wayne St
> Suite 1337
> Troy, OH 45373
>
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Bill Prince  wrote:
>
>> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
>> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
>> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>>
>> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we
>> will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
>> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
>> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>>
>>
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>>
>> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>>
>> [image: image]
>>
>> --
>> AF mailing list
>> AF@af.afmug.com
>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>
> --
> --
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>
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>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Ken Hohhof]

Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

 

Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a
turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on
ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don't recover.  Die.
That's more than 14-18 days.

 

So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn't tell you if you're a hero or a
bum for quite a while.  And if you've caused an oops, now you've got to deal
with the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect,
plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with
the dial.

 

Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer's Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed
to be going so good at first.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima
steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over
the past few months...

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com   

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
However, the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
"opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we
won't really know about it for 14-18 days.

 

bp

 

On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com   wrote:







  _  

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

No but the politicians are.  

From: Josh Luthman 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:14 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Well yes but I'm not gambling on deaths from the corona.


Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 11:11 AM  wrote:

  With curve fitting you have to consider things like simulated annealing and 
local minima.  Lots of ways to project a trend, but peaks and valleys, 
especially periodic features like this are very good indicators.  
  The stock market calls these “flags” and flags can make you rich.  

  From: Josh Luthman 
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:01 AM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

  Agreed.  Looks to me like we also have a lot of positive tests during the 
week and weekdays are much smaller.  We should be concerned about the overall 
picture, not the peaks and valleys.


  Josh Luthman
  Office: 937-552-2340
  Direct: 937-552-2343
  1100 Wayne St
  Suite 1337
  Troy, OH 45373


  On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Bill Prince  wrote:

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.



bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



   
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used
though they never came to fruition

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

> Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.
>
>
>
> Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a
> turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on
> ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.
> That’s more than 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a
> bum for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to
> deal with the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and
> effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go
> slow with the dial.
>
>
>
> Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed
> to be going so good at first.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
> except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
>
> But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase
> 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima
> steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
> a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times
> over the past few months...
>
>
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
>
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> [image: image]
>
>
>
> --
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert]

The market is so high for the actual conditions of the economy right 
now, I wonder how it could zoom with the news of a successful vaccine.   
That would be a very weird market boom...


On 5/13/20 8:10 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
With curve fitting you have to consider things like simulated 
annealing and local minima.  Lots of ways to project a trend, but 
peaks and valleys, especially periodic features like this are very 
good indicators.

The stock market calls these “flags” and flags can make you rich.
*From:* Josh Luthman
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:01 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
Agreed.  Looks to me like we also have a lot of positive tests during 
the week and weekdays are much smaller.  We should be concerned about 
the overall picture, not the peaks and valleys.

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Bill Prince  wrote:

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you
look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is
actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect,
we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the
country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively
impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.

bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

image

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

It kinda did for the first half of the curve. 

From: Steve Jones 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

  Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.



  Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a 
turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on 
ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  
That’s more than 14-18 days.



  So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.



  Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.



  From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?



  Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

  But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...



  From: Bill Prince 

  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

  To: af@af.afmug.com 

  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?



  I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

  Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.



bp On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:








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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

I always confuse Fantasia – Dukas’ (The Sorcerer’s Apprentice) with Grieg’s In 
the hall of the Mountain King.  

From: Ken Hohhof 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:14 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

 

Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a turn 
for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on ventilator.  
Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  That’s more than 
14-18 days.

 

So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

 

Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.

 

bp On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:










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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[James Howard]

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof 
mailto:af...@kwisp.com>> wrote:
Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a turn 
for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on ventilator.  
Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  That’s more than 
14-18 days.

So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> On Behalf Of 
ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?


I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.



bp




On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
[image]


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To: 
ja...@litewire.net

From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com





You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your allow list.



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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

Utah
3.2M population
5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little 
waiting)
6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.
73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.  

73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million

According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your 
lifetime is .31 or .0031%
So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by 
lightning than to die from this in Utah?
Did I make a math error?

From: James Howard 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

  Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

   

  Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a 
turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on 
ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  
That’s more than 14-18 days.

   

  So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

   

  Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

   

  From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

  But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

   

  From: Bill Prince 

  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

  To: af@af.afmug.com 

  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

  Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.

   

bp On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



 


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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Mark - Myakka Technologies]

Title: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?


I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida.  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL.  Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of something else anyway.  

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst of the worst. 
 
The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government, the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not to start opening the state.  




--
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Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:





Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM  wrote:




Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the past few months...
 
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
 
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
 
bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:







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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Ken Hohhof]

Chuck, I forget, did you buy Abbott stock?

https://www.businessinsider.com/abbott-to-make-millions-antibody-tests-coronavirus-by-june-2020-4

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:49 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Utah

3.2M population

5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little 
waiting)

6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.

73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.  

 

73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million

 

According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your 
lifetime is .31 or .0031%

So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by 
lightning than to die from this in Utah?

Did I make a math error?

 

From: James Howard 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM

To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof mailto:af...@kwisp.com> > wrote:

Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

 

Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a turn 
for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on ventilator.  
Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  That’s more than 
14-18 days.

 

So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

 

Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

 

From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> > On Behalf 
Of ch...@wbmfg.com  
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com   

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.

 

bp

 

On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com   wrote:



 


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You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your allow list.

 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

I dont know if its the same now as prior, but towns like miami are similar
to regions with malaria globally. The HIV infection rate is so high that
there is a large component of the population already taking many of the
current covid treatment meds. And if you buy into the water toxicity from
expelled/flushed meds entering the water and recirculating back into the
potable supply, florida may have effectively been inoculated. God that
would be epic, the homosexual community technically saved the republicans
from the plague. Im right wing, but have no issue with the rainbow people,
but I know my team tends to look down on them. Id love this theory to pan
out just so i can laugh and laugh and laugh at the pious on my team

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
wrote:

> I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida.
> Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be
> the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older population, we have
> Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our hospitals were suppose to
> be over run and turning people away.  A republican governor by default is
> incompetent, so things were going to get out of hand quickly.
>
> Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total
> deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get)
> FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to about 50,838 deaths
> per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit
> of a pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200
> COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal
> deaths we get an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
>
> That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural
> increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL.  Not to
> mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of
> something else anyway.
>
> We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I find
> that number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst
> of the worst.
>
> The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government, the
> people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?
>
>
> I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not
> to start opening the state.
>
>
>
>
> --
> Best regards,
> Markmailto:m...@mailmt.com 
>
> Myakka Technologies, Inc.
> www.Myakka.com
>
> --
>
> Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:
>
>
> Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide
> in some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or
> not that would be a covid related death and add to the graph
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM  wrote:
>
> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
> except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
> But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase
> 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima
> steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
> a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times
> over the past few months...
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
> bp
> 
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

I did for a short while...  no big run-up like I would have thought.  

From: Ken Hohhof 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:54 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Chuck, I forget, did you buy Abbott stock?

https://www.businessinsider.com/abbott-to-make-millions-antibody-tests-coronavirus-by-june-2020-4

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:49 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Utah

3.2M population

5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little 
waiting)

6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.

73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.  

 

73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million

 

According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your 
lifetime is .31 or .0031%

So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by 
lightning than to die from this in Utah?

Did I make a math error?

 

From: James Howard 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM

To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

  Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

   

  Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a 
turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on 
ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  
That’s more than 14-18 days.

   

  So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

   

  Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

   

  From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

  But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

   

  From: Bill Prince 

  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

  To: af@af.afmug.com 

  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

  Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.

   

bp On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



 


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  To: ja...@litewire.net
 
  From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com
 

   
 
You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your 
allow list.
   
 

 




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Bill Prince]

Title: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

  
  
The students who came to Florida did not interact with the the
  locals very much; especially the seniors in ALF and the like. They
  came down there, swapped viruses, and took their infections back
  home with them.
Meanwhile, Florida man was hanging out in the swamps with the
  alligators.


bp



On 5/13/2020 8:49 AM, Mark - Myakka
  Technologies wrote:


  
  
  I have
to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida.
 Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an
older population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican
governor.  Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning
people away.  A republican governor by default is incompetent,
so things were going to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the
total deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year
I can easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That
comes out to about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827
is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match
going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19
deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and
normal deaths we get an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017
deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a
natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths
in FL.  Not to mention the overlap of people who died of
COVID-19 that would have died of something else anyway.  

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.
 I find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only
testing the worst of the worst. 

The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the
government, the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a
combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no
reason not to start opening the state.  




--
Best regards,
Mark                            mailto:m...@mailmt.com
  
  Myakka
Technologies, Inc.
  www.Myakka.com
  
  --

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:

  
  

  


Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video.
I almost think matricide in some cases is the more
humane solution The big question is whether or not that
would be a covid related death and add to the graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM 
wrote:
  
  

  


Well the local minima seems to be taking
nice orderly steps down each week except for a
couple weeks back where it stayed about the
same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I
will take that as a phase 1 win.  Hopefully we
are on the road to eradication.  If the local
minima steps continue on the same trend, it
looks like they will hit the bottom in a
month one month to go...   I think I have
said that several times over the past few
months...

From: Bill Prince
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx
  it?
  
  I would love if they still
did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the
curve is actually flattening. However, the
linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis
to the action/effect, we will know more
sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of
the country is "opening up" around May 10,
so if that negatively impacts the death
rate, we won't really know about it for
14-18 days.

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Ken Hohhof]

Many people seem to assume they are not affected because their area is not New 
York or New Jersey or Chicago, and that the difference is that those people are 
different or live differently.  To the extent this means dense population, mass 
transit, etc. this may be partly true.  To the extent this means those are 
black and brown people, or poor people, or foreign people, or city people, or 
Democrats, well … no comment.  Other than I don’t think the virus cares about 
most of those things.

 

But no doubt another big factor was the March 13 rush of Americans in Europe to 
fly back, due to confusion about whether they would be unable to return after 
the midnight deadline.  They were required to fly into one of 13 designated 
airports, presumably with enhanced screening and quarantine for people exposed 
or infected.  But it was clear at the time there was no enhanced screening, 
people were crowded together at the airports, not checked, no masks or hand 
sanitizer or temperature checks, and then they just got into their Ubers and 
dispersed.

 

JFK, EWR and ORD were on the list of 13 airports.  So was MIA.  I’m going to 
assume that Miami was not a popular portal for people returning from Europe.  
New York, Newark and Chicago probably got the bulk of those flights.  And those 
people brought the virus from Europe.  Maybe I’m wrong about Miami not being a 
big destination for flights from Europe, but I know when I was traveling to 
Europe on business, I either flew direct from Chicago, or connected in New York.

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The students who came to Florida did not interact with the the locals very 
much; especially the seniors in ALF and the like. They came down there, swapped 
viruses, and took their infections back home with them.

Meanwhile, Florida man was hanging out in the swamps with the alligators.

 

bp

 

On 5/13/2020 8:49 AM, Mark - Myakka Technologies wrote:

I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida.  Starting 
in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be the next NY.  
We had spring break, we have an older population, we have Orlando, and we have 
a republican governor.  Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning 
people away.  A republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were 
going to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total deaths in 
the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get) FL had 
203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to about 50,838 deaths per 
quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a 
pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 
deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get 
an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural increase 
of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL.  Not to mention the 
overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of something else 
anyway.  

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I find that 
number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst of the 
worst. 

The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government, the people, 
the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not to 
start opening the state.  




--
Best regards,
Mark  mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
  www.Myakka.com

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:


Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide in 
some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or not that 
would be a covid related death and add to the graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM <  ch...@wbmfg.com> 
wrote:


Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.
Since ther

Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[Brian Webster]

Thinking about altitudes and such, if you just always have something in view of 
the images that is a known size/dimensions you can scale any view/image from 
that. So long as your camera is on a gimbal mount and it’s shooting level, you 
don’t get measurement distortion from odd angles.

 

There are software packages out there where they stitch together all sorts of 
images of a place/area. They use math to calculate the vanishing point and then 
use it to draw a 3D point cloud very much like a LIDAR process. The methods I 
had read about don’t always use GPS to tie precision location and have that 
good down to say a 1 foot level. I do think you can dimension off the results 
relative to what is in the object/cloud. I had considered this for some tower 
mapping projects quite a few years ago, I am sure the software and methods got 
better over time. There were programs that would take video footage and sample 
out static pictures to use as part of the process.

 

https://www.geospatialworld.net/article/3d-modeling-of-cities-can-be-done-using-images-alone/

https://expertphotography.com/create-a-3d-model-from-photos/

http://ai.stanford.edu/~micusik/Papers/Micusik-Kosecka-CVPR09.pdf

https://www.zdnet.com/article/replacing-google-street-view-with-complete-3d-models-of-cities-video/

 

 

Thank you,

Brian Webster

www.wirelessmapping.com

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:06 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

 

That sounds good.  I would like to know if he has to be prexact on his 
altitudes and what kind of software he uses for the stitching.  

 

From: David Coudron 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:38 AM

To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

 

Chuck,

 

I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.

 

  

David Coudron | david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 612-991-7474 | fax 
612-454-1546 

 

Advantenon, Inc. |   www.advantenon.com |3500 
Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720

 

  Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on LinkedIn 
   |  Advantenon on Twitter 
 

 

 

  _  

From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 

 





 

 

We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.  

I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.

 

I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.  

Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?

  _  

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Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[chuck]

Like to find something that can automatically adjust the scale by matching the 
same features on the edges of a bunch of images.  
I use a product, I think it comes with Windows, to stich now, but you better 
have the exact same scale before you start.  It is pretty ugly if you don’t.  

From: Brian Webster 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:34 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

Thinking about altitudes and such, if you just always have something in view of 
the images that is a known size/dimensions you can scale any view/image from 
that. So long as your camera is on a gimbal mount and it’s shooting level, you 
don’t get measurement distortion from odd angles.

 

There are software packages out there where they stitch together all sorts of 
images of a place/area. They use math to calculate the vanishing point and then 
use it to draw a 3D point cloud very much like a LIDAR process. The methods I 
had read about don’t always use GPS to tie precision location and have that 
good down to say a 1 foot level. I do think you can dimension off the results 
relative to what is in the object/cloud. I had considered this for some tower 
mapping projects quite a few years ago, I am sure the software and methods got 
better over time. There were programs that would take video footage and sample 
out static pictures to use as part of the process.

 

https://www.geospatialworld.net/article/3d-modeling-of-cities-can-be-done-using-images-alone/

https://expertphotography.com/create-a-3d-model-from-photos/

http://ai.stanford.edu/~micusik/Papers/Micusik-Kosecka-CVPR09.pdf

https://www.zdnet.com/article/replacing-google-street-view-with-complete-3d-models-of-cities-video/

 

 

Thank you,

Brian Webster

www.wirelessmapping.com

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:06 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

 

That sounds good.  I would like to know if he has to be prexact on his 
altitudes and what kind of software he uses for the stitching.  

 

From: David Coudron 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:38 AM

To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

 

Chuck,

 

I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.

 

  

David Coudron | david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 612-991-7474 | fax 
612-454-1546 

 

Advantenon, Inc. | www.advantenon.com |3500 Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, 
Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720

 

Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on LinkedIn  |  Advantenon on Twitter

 

 




From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 

 





 

   

  We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.  

  I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.

   

  I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.  

  Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?




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Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

[Ken Hohhof]

Whatever his faults, I don’t think anyone was questioning his intelligence.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Darin Steffl
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:50 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

 

Elon is stressed that he's not completing his mission to save earth and 
humanity. If you think he's about money, think again. His only goal is to save 
us from ourselves by helping drive us into a sustainable future, and get to 
Mars before we ruin earth.

 

All the money he has made has been used to start the next business to achieve 
his goals. Tesla to reduce pollution with electric cars, tesla energy to 
produce and store green energy, SpaceX to reduce the cost of going into space 
with reusable rockets and get to Mars, starlink to fund even more for SpaceX, 
neuralink for AI because why not, the boring company to reduce the cost of 
building tunnels and ease road congestion, etc. 

 

All of these companies do make money but he's an innovator at heart, not a 
greedy money guy. When shit needs to get done, he sleeps at the factory and 
works his butt off more than the suit and tie, for hire CEO's. 

 

He opened the Fremont factory early because his mission is being threatened and 
he needs to keep tesla going for all of humanity, not for himself. The governor 
also said industries that tesla fits into could be opened but Alameda County 
said no. 

 

Yes he is going a little crazy on Twitter but imagine the stress he's under. 
He'll get through it. 

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020, 11:12 AM Steven Kenney mailto:st...@wavedirect.org> > wrote:

He's far more intelligent than people give him credit for.  They don't realize 
they are being played.  He's a supreme troll that easily triggers people.  
Watching the aftermath is more entertaining than his tweets. 

 

-- 
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)

 


  _  


From: "Josh Luthman" mailto:j...@imaginenetworksllc.com> >
To: "af" mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:05:00 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

 

Maybe it has something to do with him selling things for cash to buy Tesla 
stock.  Like tweeting the price is too high on the Friday before he wants to 
buy some on Monday.



Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373

 

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:58 AM Ken Hohhof mailto:af...@kwisp.com> > wrote:

Elon seems to be having a bit of a meltdown lately.  Or is that just Elon being 
Elon?  Mid life crisis?

 

If you’ve watched the TV show Elementary, I’m reminded of Sherlock explaining 
to Agatha why he shouldn’t procreate.

 

 

From: AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> > On Behalf 
Of Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:38 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

 

Could provide a fix for the pork shortage. 

Did I really just say that?!?

 

bp

 

On 5/13/2020 7:33 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com   wrote:

I am not against Musk opening if done properly but this made me chortle a bit.



 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

[Josh Luthman]

For sure.  You can be super damn lucky or not to get where he's at but you
can't be dumb.

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:00 PM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

> Whatever his faults, I don’t think anyone was questioning his intelligence.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Darin Steffl
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:50 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
>
>
>
> Elon is stressed that he's not completing his mission to save earth and
> humanity. If you think he's about money, think again. His only goal is to
> save us from ourselves by helping drive us into a sustainable future, and
> get to Mars before we ruin earth.
>
>
>
> All the money he has made has been used to start the next business to
> achieve his goals. Tesla to reduce pollution with electric cars, tesla
> energy to produce and store green energy, SpaceX to reduce the cost of
> going into space with reusable rockets and get to Mars, starlink to fund
> even more for SpaceX, neuralink for AI because why not, the boring company
> to reduce the cost of building tunnels and ease road congestion, etc.
>
>
>
> All of these companies do make money but he's an innovator at heart, not a
> greedy money guy. When shit needs to get done, he sleeps at the factory and
> works his butt off more than the suit and tie, for hire CEO's.
>
>
>
> He opened the Fremont factory early because his mission is being
> threatened and he needs to keep tesla going for all of humanity, not for
> himself. The governor also said industries that tesla fits into could be
> opened but Alameda County said no.
>
>
>
> Yes he is going a little crazy on Twitter but imagine the stress he's
> under. He'll get through it.
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020, 11:12 AM Steven Kenney  wrote:
>
> He's far more intelligent than people give him credit for.  They don't
> realize they are being played.  He's a supreme troll that easily triggers
> people.  Watching the aftermath is more entertaining than his tweets.
>
>
>
> --
> Steven Kenney
> Network Operations Manager
> WaveDirect Telecommunications
> http://www.wavedirect.net
> (519)737-WAVE (9283)
>
>
> --
>
> *From: *"Josh Luthman" 
> *To: *"af" 
> *Sent: *Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:05:00 AM
> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
>
>
>
> Maybe it has something to do with him selling things for cash to buy Tesla
> stock.  Like tweeting the price is too high on the Friday before he wants
> to buy some on Monday.
>
>
> Josh Luthman
> Office: 937-552-2340
> Direct: 937-552-2343
> 1100 Wayne St
> Suite 1337
> Troy, OH 45373
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:58 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:
>
> Elon seems to be having a bit of a meltdown lately.  Or is that just Elon
> being Elon?  Mid life crisis?
>
>
>
> If you’ve watched the TV show Elementary, I’m reminded of Sherlock
> explaining to Agatha why he shouldn’t procreate.
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:38 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
>
>
>
> Could provide a fix for the pork shortage.
>
> Did I really just say that?!?
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:33 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> I am not against Musk opening if done properly but this made me chortle a
> bit.
>
> [image: image]
>
>
>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
>
> --
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>
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> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
> --
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>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

[Josh Luthman]

Did he also want to save humanity from inconvenient online payment
transactions with Paypal...?

Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:51 PM Darin Steffl 
wrote:

> Elon is stressed that he's not completing his mission to save earth and
> humanity. If you think he's about money, think again. His only goal is to
> save us from ourselves by helping drive us into a sustainable future, and
> get to Mars before we ruin earth.
>
> All the money he has made has been used to start the next business to
> achieve his goals. Tesla to reduce pollution with electric cars, tesla
> energy to produce and store green energy, SpaceX to reduce the cost of
> going into space with reusable rockets and get to Mars, starlink to fund
> even more for SpaceX, neuralink for AI because why not, the boring company
> to reduce the cost of building tunnels and ease road congestion, etc.
>
> All of these companies do make money but he's an innovator at heart, not a
> greedy money guy. When shit needs to get done, he sleeps at the factory and
> works his butt off more than the suit and tie, for hire CEO's.
>
> He opened the Fremont factory early because his mission is being
> threatened and he needs to keep tesla going for all of humanity, not for
> himself. The governor also said industries that tesla fits into could be
> opened but Alameda County said no.
>
> Yes he is going a little crazy on Twitter but imagine the stress he's
> under. He'll get through it.
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020, 11:12 AM Steven Kenney  wrote:
>
>> He's far more intelligent than people give him credit for.  They don't
>> realize they are being played.  He's a supreme troll that easily triggers
>> people.  Watching the aftermath is more entertaining than his tweets.
>>
>> --
>> Steven Kenney
>> Network Operations Manager
>> WaveDirect Telecommunications
>> http://www.wavedirect.net
>> (519)737-WAVE (9283)
>>
>> --
>> *From: *"Josh Luthman" 
>> *To: *"af" 
>> *Sent: *Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:05:00 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
>>
>> Maybe it has something to do with him selling things for cash to buy
>> Tesla stock.  Like tweeting the price is too high on the Friday before he
>> wants to buy some on Monday.
>>
>> Josh Luthman
>> Office: 937-552-2340
>> Direct: 937-552-2343
>> 1100 Wayne St
>> Suite 1337
>> Troy, OH 45373
>>
>>
>> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:58 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:
>>
>>> Elon seems to be having a bit of a meltdown lately.  Or is that just
>>> Elon being Elon?  Mid life crisis?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> If you’ve watched the TV show Elementary, I’m reminded of Sherlock
>>> explaining to Agatha why he shouldn’t procreate.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:38 AM
>>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Could provide a fix for the pork shortage.
>>>
>>> Did I really just say that?!?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> bp
>>>
>>> 
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 5/13/2020 7:33 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>>>
>>> I am not against Musk opening if done properly but this made me chortle
>>> a bit.
>>>
>>> [image: image]
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> AF mailing list
>>> AF@af.afmug.com
>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>>
>>
>> --
>> AF mailing list
>> AF@af.afmug.com
>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>> --
>> AF mailing list
>> AF@af.afmug.com
>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>
> --
> AF mailing list
> AF@af.afmug.com
> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh

[Bill Prince]

  
  
Depends on what you think of the big credit card companies.
  Interest rates on those are pretty crazy, and I know they impact
  low income people way more than high income people.



bp



On 5/13/2020 11:00 AM, Josh Luthman
  wrote:


  
  

  

  Did he also want to save humanity from inconvenient
online payment transactions with Paypal...?
  
  
  Josh Luthman
  Office: 937-552-2340
  Direct: 937-552-2343
  1100 Wayne St
  Suite 1337
  Troy, OH 45373
  


  
  
  
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:51
  PM Darin Steffl 
  wrote:


  Elon is stressed that he's not completing his
mission to save earth and humanity. If you think he's about
money, think again. His only goal is to save us from
ourselves by helping drive us into a sustainable future, and
get to Mars before we ruin earth.


All the money he has made has been used to
  start the next business to achieve his goals. Tesla to
  reduce pollution with electric cars, tesla energy to
  produce and store green energy, SpaceX to reduce the cost
  of going into space with reusable rockets and get to Mars,
  starlink to fund even more for SpaceX, neuralink for AI
  because why not, the boring company to reduce the cost of
  building tunnels and ease road congestion, etc. 


All of these companies do make money but
  he's an innovator at heart, not a greedy money guy. When
  shit needs to get done, he sleeps at the factory and works
  his butt off more than the suit and tie, for hire CEO's. 


He opened the Fremont factory early because
  his mission is being threatened and he needs to keep tesla
  going for all of humanity, not for himself. The governor
  also said industries that tesla fits into could be opened
  but Alameda County said no. 


Yes he is going a little crazy on Twitter
  but imagine the stress he's under. He'll get through it. 
  
  
  
On Wed, May 13, 2020,
  11:12 AM Steven Kenney 
  wrote:


  

  He's far more intelligent than people give him
credit for.  They don't realize they are being
played.  He's a supreme troll that easily triggers
people.  Watching the aftermath is more entertaining
than his tweets. 
  
  
  -- 
Steven Kenney
Network Operations Manager
WaveDirect Telecommunications
http://www.wavedirect.net
(519)737-WAVE (9283)
  
  
  
  From: "Josh Luthman" 
To: "af" 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:05:00 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Made me laugh
  
  
  
  
Maybe it has something to do with him
  selling things for cash to buy Tesla stock.  Like
  tweeting the price is too high on the Friday
  before he wants to buy some on Monday.
  

  
Josh Luthman
Office: 937-552-2340
Direct: 937-552-2343
1100 Wayne St
Suite 1337
Troy, OH 45373

  
  



  On Wed, May 13,
2020 at 10:58 AM Ken Hohhof 
wrote:
  
  

  
Elon seems to be having
  a bit of a meltdown lately.  Or is that
  just Elon being Elon?  Mid life crisis?
 
If you’ve watched the
  TV show Elementary, I’m reminded of

Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[David Coudron]

He had said he loads the flight plan into the drone before launching.  So the 
horizontal path is prescribed for sure and I am guessing altitude is too. He 
did mention the name of the stitching software but I didn’t retain it at the 
time. I will find out. Might take a day or so.

Get Outlook for iOS

From: AF  on behalf of ch...@wbmfg.com 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:37:22 PM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

Like to find something that can automatically adjust the scale by matching the 
same features on the edges of a bunch of images.
I use a product, I think it comes with Windows, to stich now, but you better 
have the exact same scale before you start.  It is pretty ugly if you don’t.

From: Brian Webster
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:34 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks


Thinking about altitudes and such, if you just always have something in view of 
the images that is a known size/dimensions you can scale any view/image from 
that. So long as your camera is on a gimbal mount and it’s shooting level, you 
don’t get measurement distortion from odd angles.



There are software packages out there where they stitch together all sorts of 
images of a place/area. They use math to calculate the vanishing point and then 
use it to draw a 3D point cloud very much like a LIDAR process. The methods I 
had read about don’t always use GPS to tie precision location and have that 
good down to say a 1 foot level. I do think you can dimension off the results 
relative to what is in the object/cloud. I had considered this for some tower 
mapping projects quite a few years ago, I am sure the software and methods got 
better over time. There were programs that would take video footage and sample 
out static pictures to use as part of the process.



https://www.geospatialworld.net/article/3d-modeling-of-cities-can-be-done-using-images-alone/

https://expertphotography.com/create-a-3d-model-from-photos/

http://ai.stanford.edu/~micusik/Papers/Micusik-Kosecka-CVPR09.pdf

https://www.zdnet.com/article/replacing-google-street-view-with-complete-3d-models-of-cities-video/





Thank you,

Brian Webster

www.wirelessmapping.com



From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:06 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks



That sounds good.  I would like to know if he has to be prexact on his 
altitudes and what kind of software he uses for the stitching.



From: David Coudron

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:38 AM

To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks



Chuck,



I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.





David Coudron | david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 612-991-7474 | fax 
612-454-1546



Advantenon, Inc. | www.advantenon.com |3500 
Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720



Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on 
LinkedIn  |  Advantenon on 
Twitter







From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks









We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.

I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.



I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.

Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?



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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert Andrews]

LENT!

On 05/13/2020 11:16 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:

I agree with your assessment as a fellow Florida man.  ;-)

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

This is where the data comes from.  It was created to track flu, but you 
can see there is a column for total deaths too.  You can break it down 
by state, region, national.


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:10 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:


Harold,

Just doing a quick calc.  We are looking at 72000 deaths in that
time frame.  That is less than 1% increase.  That is a rounding
error.  Being the yearly deaths increase naturally by 1% - 3% a
year, one can argue we will have a smaller increase this year than
normal.

BTW - where did you get that graph.  I would like to keep track of
this and share it with a few co-workers.


--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:14:35 PM, you wrote:


Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:



If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:

I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
Florida.  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older
population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our
hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A
republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total
deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to
about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there
is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase
of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a
natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in
FL.  Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that
would have died of something else anyway.

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I
find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only
testing the worst of the worst.

The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government,
the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason
not to start opening the state.




--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:


Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think
matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question
is whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the
graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down
each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a
phase 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the
local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they
will hit the bottom in a month one month to go...   I think I
have said that several times over the past few months...

*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
*To: *af@af.afmug.com 
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look
at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually
flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect,
we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the
country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts
the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.

bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:




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AF

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert Andrews]

No worries, I don't live in FLA so I'll just raise my SEP field and not 
worry about something far away that I probably won't visit for 2-3 
years.But suppressing the ME's from talking isn't supposed to be 
what this country is about.   It strikes me funny whenever I hear about 
one part of government shutting up another part of government.. 
Whatever the reason.


On 05/13/2020 11:33 AM, Mark - Myakka Technologies wrote:

Robert,

That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This website 
has been running since the beginning of the year


https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at worldometers 
site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+ cases.  That doesn't mean FL 
had those deaths on that day.  It was just reported on that day.  The 
arcis site is more accurate with the daily count, being they will go 
back and adjust the data based on actual death day and not reported day. 
  Big difference with the graph.


As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting, there is an 
issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the ME offices 
were about 10% higher than what the state was officially reporting.  Not 
sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts.  Died in different 
county than register as resident.  Counted in both counties.  The state 
decided that they would be the ones to report the official numbers and 
asked the ME to not make their numbers public.  They are still 
collecting the data, but just not reporting it.


I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal with the 
media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the overall 
numbers.  The national media is always getting things wrong about FL. 
  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling out of trees, 
gators attacking people everyday, etc.


Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here.  I won't go 
as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we are 
doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck.  Things are starting 
to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few months.  The true 
test will be once the Orlando area opens up.




--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:


	FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the national 
news...


On 5/13/20 10:14 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:

Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:



If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time 
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:


	I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida. 
  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to 
be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older population, we 
have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our hospitals were 
suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A republican governor 
by default is incompetent, so things were going to get out of hand quickly.


Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total 
deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily 
get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to about 50,838 
deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under 
reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state and ME's) that 
gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap 
between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase of about 4% of 
deaths over 2017 deaths.


That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural 
increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL.  Not to 
mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died 
of something else anyway.


We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I find 
that number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the 
worst of the worst.


The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government, the 
people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?



I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not 
to start opening the state.





--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:


	Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think 
matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question is 
whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the graph


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM > wrote:


	Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each 
week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But 

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert Andrews]

It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they 
would look pretty similar?


On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data is 
presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled as 
"reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):


Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png

And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website which 
is based on date of death instead of date reported:


Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png

These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:


Robert,

That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This
website has been running since the beginning of the year

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+ cases.  That
doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just reported
on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily count,
being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual death
day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.

As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting, there is
an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the ME
offices were about 10% higher than what the state was officially
reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts. 
Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted in both

counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to report
the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not reporting it.

I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal with
the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things wrong
about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling
out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.

Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here.  I won't
go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we
are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck.  Things are
starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.



--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:


FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the
national news...

On 5/13/20 10:14 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:

Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:



If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:

I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
Florida.  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older
population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our
hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A
republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total
deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to
about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there
is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase
of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a
natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in
FL.  Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that
would have died of something else anyway.

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I
find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only
testing the worst of the worst.

The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government,
the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason
not to start opening the state.




--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myak

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert Andrews]

Maybe starlink is actually Musk's "Rod's from God" weapon.   With a 
possible 64K of them, he can afford to start dropping them on 
snake/spider pits like that office...


On 05/13/2020 12:17 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
as long as those spiders stay in a cage youre fine and i dont have to 
drive to florida and burn your house and neighborhood to the ground. 
keep the lid on that


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:14 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:


Ken,

I have to admit I have some Florida man in me.  Working at my desk
in my home office.  Sitting on the desk next to me is a Green Bottle
Blue Tarantula and a Red Rump Tarantula.  Both are babies I'm
raising. One is the size of a dime, the other about a quarter. 
Sitting across from me is a tank with a 4'+ corn snake.  That is

just what I have in my office.  Not going to mention what is in the
rest of the house.


--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 3:04:35 PM, you wrote:


Oh, come on, Florida Man stories write themselves.

And if you don’t want the media to run articles about pythons, maybe
don’t have an event called “Python Bowl 2020”.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article238043244.html


*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Mark - Myakka
Technologies
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 1:33 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Robert,

That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This
website has been running since the beginning of the year

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+ cases.  That
doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just reported
on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily count,
being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual death
day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.

As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting, there is
an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the ME
offices were about 10% higher than what the state was officially
reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts. 
Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted in both

counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to report
the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not reporting it.

I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal with
the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things wrong
about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling
out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.

Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here.  I won't
go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we
are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck.  Things are
starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.



--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com 

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:

FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the
national news...

On 5/13/20 10:14 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:

Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:



If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:

I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
Florida.  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older
population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our
hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A
republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total
deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to
about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
and ME's) that gives us about 22

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

This amazes me. Not saying the media bais is presenting as patently false
news, but this disease is apparently becoming self aware and leans left.
Its learned to target based on where you live and who you vote for.
https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:20 PM Robert Andrews 
wrote:

> It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they
> would look pretty similar?
>
> On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
> > Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data is
> > presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled as
> > "reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
> >
> > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
> >
> > And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website which
> > is based on date of death instead of date reported:
> >
> > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
> >
> > These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
> >
> > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
> > mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
> >
> > Robert,
> >
> > That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This
> > website has been running since the beginning of the year
> >
> >
> https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
> >
> > Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
> > worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+ cases.  That
> > doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just reported
> > on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily count,
> > being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual death
> > day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.
> >
> > As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting, there is
> > an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the ME
> > offices were about 10% higher than what the state was officially
> > reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts.
> > Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted in both
> > counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to report
> > the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
> > public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not reporting
> it.
> >
> > I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal with
> > the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
> > overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things wrong
> > about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling
> > out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
> >
> > Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here.  I won't
> > go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we
> > are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck.  Things are
> > starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
> > months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Best regards,
> > Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
> >
> > Myakka Technologies, Inc.
> > www.Myakka.com 
> >
> > --
> >
> > Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >   FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the
> > national news...
> >
> > On 5/13/20 10:14 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
> >
> >   Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:
> >
> >
> >
> > If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
> > period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.
> >
> > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
> > mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
> >
> >   I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
> > Florida.  Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
> > suppose to be the next NY.  We had spring break, we have an older
> > population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor.  Our
> > hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away.  A
> > republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
> > to get out of hand quickly.
> >
> > Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total
> > deaths in the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
> > easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to
> > about 50,838 deaths per quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
> > due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
> > and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths.  Assuming there
> > is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase
> > of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
> >
> > That 4% is most likely 

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Robert Andrews]

Ok so you keep wanting to politicize the discussion?  How about that 
trump followers are the ones marching around meeting in groups without 
face masks because they need to show its their rights?   And maybe just 
maybe the virus could give two swats of a cows tail about someones 
rights when it flies through the air and lands on someones eyeball from 
another someone  this is shouting at the top of their lungs about their 
rights.  Seems more like Darwinian selection than media bias.


 Now I know personally that a VERY Trump area in far northeast 
California, modoc county has zero cases.   But that area has natural 
social distancing.   I've been there and watched a lot of people without 
masks, but they also don't feel the need to gather in groups to proclaim 
the right not to wear masks.   Should be interesting to see if they get 
any cases now that the restaurants have reopened.   But if there aren't 
any cases there and nobody brings it in, they should be good to go.



On 05/13/2020 12:23 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
This amazes me. Not saying the media bais is presenting as patently 
false news, but this disease is apparently becoming self aware and leans 
left. Its learned to target based on where you live and who you vote 
for. 
https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:20 PM Robert Andrews > wrote:


It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they
would look pretty similar?

On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
 > Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data is
 > presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled as
 > "reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
 >
 > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
 >
 > And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website
which
 > is based on date of death instead of date reported:
 >
 > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
 >
 > These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
 >
 > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
 > mailto:m...@mailmt.com> >> wrote:
 >
 > Robert,
 >
 > That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This
 > website has been running since the beginning of the year
 >
 >
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
 >
 > Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
 > worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+
cases.  That
 > doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just
reported
 > on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily
count,
 > being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual death
 > day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.
 >
 > As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting,
there is
 > an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the ME
 > offices were about 10% higher than what the state was officially
 > reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts.
 > Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted
in both
 > counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to
report
 > the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
 > public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not
reporting it.
 >
 > I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal
with
 > the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
 > overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things
wrong
 > about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling
 > out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
 >
 > Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here. 
I won't

 > go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we
 > are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck. 
Things are

 > starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
 > months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.
 >
 >
 >
 > --
 > Best regards,
 > Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com 
 >
 > Myakka Technologies, Inc.
 > www.Myakka.com  
 >
 > --
 >
 > Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:
 >
 >
 >   FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the
 > national news...
 >
 > On 5/13/20 10:14 AM,

Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

[chuck]

Thank you very much.  

From: David Coudron 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:25 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

He had said he loads the flight plan into the drone before launching.  So the 
horizontal path is prescribed for sure and I am guessing altitude is too. He 
did mention the name of the stitching software but I didn’t retain it at the 
time. I will find out. Might take a day or so. 

Get Outlook for iOS



From: AF  on behalf of ch...@wbmfg.com 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:37:22 PM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 

Like to find something that can automatically adjust the scale by matching the 
same features on the edges of a bunch of images.  
I use a product, I think it comes with Windows, to stich now, but you better 
have the exact same scale before you start.  It is pretty ugly if you don’t.  

From: Brian Webster 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:34 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks

Thinking about altitudes and such, if you just always have something in view of 
the images that is a known size/dimensions you can scale any view/image from 
that. So long as your camera is on a gimbal mount and it’s shooting level, you 
don’t get measurement distortion from odd angles.



There are software packages out there where they stitch together all sorts of 
images of a place/area. They use math to calculate the vanishing point and then 
use it to draw a 3D point cloud very much like a LIDAR process. The methods I 
had read about don’t always use GPS to tie precision location and have that 
good down to say a 1 foot level. I do think you can dimension off the results 
relative to what is in the object/cloud. I had considered this for some tower 
mapping projects quite a few years ago, I am sure the software and methods got 
better over time. There were programs that would take video footage and sample 
out static pictures to use as part of the process.



https://www.geospatialworld.net/article/3d-modeling-of-cities-can-be-done-using-images-alone/

https://expertphotography.com/create-a-3d-model-from-photos/

http://ai.stanford.edu/~micusik/Papers/Micusik-Kosecka-CVPR09.pdf

https://www.zdnet.com/article/replacing-google-street-view-with-complete-3d-models-of-cities-video/





Thank you,

Brian Webster

www.wirelessmapping.com



From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:06 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks



That sounds good.  I would like to know if he has to be prexact on his 
altitudes and what kind of software he uses for the stitching.  



From: David Coudron 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 7:38 AM

To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks



Chuck,



I was just talking to a guy that uses a drone to fly construction sites.   He 
uses a 4 MP camera and makes multiple passes.   He stitches the video together 
with software.   Each pixel in the resulting image is 1 centimeter.  The 
construction company uses this as sort of an asbuilt.   They file this and can 
look later to see where rebar is in the cement floor and walls.   Where 
plumbing goes through cement, etc.   He does this at multiple stages of the 
construction process.   You could definitely do what you are asking about 
according to what he is doing.



  

David Coudron | david.coud...@advantenon.com  | mobile 612-991-7474 | fax 
612-454-1546 



Advantenon, Inc. | www.advantenon.com |3500 Vicksburg Lane N, Suite 315, 
Plymouth, MN 55447 | toll free 800-704-4720



Advantenon Blog  | Advantenon on LinkedIn  |  Advantenon on Twitter








From: AF  on behalf of Chuck McCown 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:08 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: [AFMUG] documenting underground marks 









   

  We strive to have video and photo evidence of marks before we start digging.  
Sometimes we fail but most of the time when we hit something there is no paint 
or flags.  

  I am wondering if a drone video would be better than our handheld 
phone/camcorder footage?  I have never used a drone personally but have seen 
some of the images.  It sure would be quick and easy to fly a route.  Not sure 
the altitude you would want to use.  Not sure if it would see more than the 
camcorder on the ground.



  I am thinking that the aerial view would see the paint better but the ground 
view would see the flags.  

  Be good for engineering I would think.  Hopefully much better resolution than 
Google earth.  I wonder if you can correct the perspective distortion?

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

Guys, there has been a LENT request.  Let's all drop it for now.  Please.

-Original Message- 
From: Robert Andrews

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 1:41 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

Ok so you keep wanting to politicize the discussion?  How about that
trump followers are the ones marching around meeting in groups without
face masks because they need to show its their rights?   And maybe just
maybe the virus could give two swats of a cows tail about someones
rights when it flies through the air and lands on someones eyeball from
another someone  this is shouting at the top of their lungs about their
rights.  Seems more like Darwinian selection than media bias.

 Now I know personally that a VERY Trump area in far northeast
California, modoc county has zero cases.   But that area has natural
social distancing.   I've been there and watched a lot of people without
masks, but they also don't feel the need to gather in groups to proclaim
the right not to wear masks.   Should be interesting to see if they get
any cases now that the restaurants have reopened.   But if there aren't
any cases there and nobody brings it in, they should be good to go.


On 05/13/2020 12:23 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
This amazes me. Not saying the media bais is presenting as patently false 
news, but this disease is apparently becoming self aware and leans left. 
Its learned to target based on where you live and who you vote for. 
https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/


On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:20 PM Robert Andrews > wrote:


It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they
would look pretty similar?

On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
 > Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data is
 > presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled 
as

 > "reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
 >
 > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
 >
 > And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website
which
 > is based on date of death instead of date reported:
 >
 > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
 >
 > These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
 >
 > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
 > mailto:m...@mailmt.com> >> wrote:
 >
 > Robert,
 >
 > That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.  This
 > website has been running since the beginning of the year
 >
 >

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
 >
 > Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
 > worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+
cases.  That
 > doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just
reported
 > on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily
count,
 > being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual 
death

 > day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.
 >
 > As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting,
there is
 > an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all the 
ME
 > offices were about 10% higher than what the state was 
officially
 > reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double 
counts.

 > Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted
in both
 > counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to
report
 > the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
 > public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not
reporting it.
 >
 > I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal
with
 > the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
 > overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things
wrong
 > about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons 
falling

 > out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
 >
 > Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here. I 
won't
 > go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well 
we
 > are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck. Things 
are

 > starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
 > months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.
 >
 >
 >
 > --
 > Best regards,
 > Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com 
 >
 > Myakka Technologies, Inc.
 > www.Myakka.com  
 >
 > --
 >
  

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[James Howard]

So you're theory is that there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow?

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:00 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

I dont know if its the same now as prior, but towns like miami are similar to 
regions with malaria globally. The HIV infection rate is so high that there is 
a large component of the population already taking many of the current covid 
treatment meds. And if you buy into the water toxicity from expelled/flushed 
meds entering the water and recirculating back into the potable supply, florida 
may have effectively been inoculated. God that would be epic, the homosexual 
community technically saved the republicans from the plague. Im right wing, but 
have no issue with the rainbow people, but I know my team tends to look down on 
them. Id love this theory to pan out just so i can laugh and laugh and laugh at 
the pious on my team

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies 
mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida.  Starting 
in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be the next NY.  
We had spring break, we have an older population, we have Orlando, and we have 
a republican governor.  Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning 
people away.  A republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were 
going to get out of hand quickly.

Where are we today? 1827 deaths.  That is only about 2% of the total deaths in 
the US.  To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get) FL had 
203,353 deaths for the year.  That comes out to about 50,838 deaths per 
quarter.  Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a 
pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 
deaths.  Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get 
an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.

That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural increase 
of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL.  Not to mention the 
overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of something else 
anyway.

We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate.  I find that 
number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst of the 
worst.

The question is, why are we doing so well?  Is it the government, the people, 
the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?


I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not to 
start opening the state.




--
Best regards,
Markmailto:m...@mailmt.com

Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com

--

Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:

Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide in 
some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or not that 
would be a covid related death and add to the graph

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.

bp


On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

[cid:image001.png@01D62936.0CDC1110]


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From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Carl Peterson]

There shouldn't need to be a lent request.  It is always lent.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:45 PM  wrote:

> Guys, there has been a LENT request.  Let's all drop it for now.  Please.
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Robert Andrews
> Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 1:41 PM
> To: af@af.afmug.com
> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
> Ok so you keep wanting to politicize the discussion?  How about that
> trump followers are the ones marching around meeting in groups without
> face masks because they need to show its their rights?   And maybe just
> maybe the virus could give two swats of a cows tail about someones
> rights when it flies through the air and lands on someones eyeball from
> another someone  this is shouting at the top of their lungs about their
> rights.  Seems more like Darwinian selection than media bias.
>
>   Now I know personally that a VERY Trump area in far northeast
> California, modoc county has zero cases.   But that area has natural
> social distancing.   I've been there and watched a lot of people without
> masks, but they also don't feel the need to gather in groups to proclaim
> the right not to wear masks.   Should be interesting to see if they get
> any cases now that the restaurants have reopened.   But if there aren't
> any cases there and nobody brings it in, they should be good to go.
>
>
> On 05/13/2020 12:23 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
> > This amazes me. Not saying the media bais is presenting as patently
> false
> > news, but this disease is apparently becoming self aware and leans left.
> > Its learned to target based on where you live and who you vote for.
> >
> https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/
> >
> > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:20 PM Robert Andrews  > > wrote:
> >
> > It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they
> > would look pretty similar?
> >
> > On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
> >  > Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data
> is
> >  > presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled
> > as
> >  > "reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
> >  >
> >  > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
> >  >
> >  > And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website
> > which
> >  > is based on date of death instead of date reported:
> >  >
> >  > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
> >  >
> >  > These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
> >  >
> >  > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
> >  > mailto:m...@mailmt.com>  > >> wrote:
> >  >
> >  > Robert,
> >  >
> >  > That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.
> This
> >  > website has been running since the beginning of the year
> >  >
> >  >
> >
> >
> https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
> >  >
> >  > Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
> >  > worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+
> > cases.  That
> >  > doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just
> > reported
> >  > on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily
> > count,
> >  > being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual
> > death
> >  > day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.
> >  >
> >  > As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting,
> > there is
> >  > an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all
> the
> > ME
> >  > offices were about 10% higher than what the state was
> > officially
> >  > reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double
> > counts.
> >  > Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted
> > in both
> >  > counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to
> > report
> >  > the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their
> numbers
> >  > public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not
> > reporting it.
> >  >
> >  > I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal
> > with
> >  > the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
> >  > overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things
> > wrong
> >  > about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons
> > falling
> >  > out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
> >  >
> >  > Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here. I
> > won't
> >  > go as far as saying the government is responsible for how
> well
> > we
> >  > are doing.  I'm going 

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

"News" "journalism" "integrity" "democracacy dies in darkness"

On Wed, May 13, 2020, 2:41 PM Robert Andrews  wrote:

> Ok so you keep wanting to politicize the discussion?  How about that
> trump followers are the ones marching around meeting in groups without
> face masks because they need to show its their rights?   And maybe just
> maybe the virus could give two swats of a cows tail about someones
> rights when it flies through the air and lands on someones eyeball from
> another someone  this is shouting at the top of their lungs about their
> rights.  Seems more like Darwinian selection than media bias.
>
>   Now I know personally that a VERY Trump area in far northeast
> California, modoc county has zero cases.   But that area has natural
> social distancing.   I've been there and watched a lot of people without
> masks, but they also don't feel the need to gather in groups to proclaim
> the right not to wear masks.   Should be interesting to see if they get
> any cases now that the restaurants have reopened.   But if there aren't
> any cases there and nobody brings it in, they should be good to go.
>
>
> On 05/13/2020 12:23 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
> > This amazes me. Not saying the media bais is presenting as patently
> > false news, but this disease is apparently becoming self aware and leans
> > left. Its learned to target based on where you live and who you vote
> > for.
> >
> https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/
> >
> > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 2:20 PM Robert Andrews  > > wrote:
> >
> > It looks like, if you pull out the 15% plotted on a single day, they
> > would look pretty similar?
> >
> > On 05/13/2020 11:57 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
> >  > Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data
> is
> >  > presented.  Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled
> as
> >  > "reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
> >  >
> >  > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
> >  >
> >  > And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website
> > which
> >  > is based on date of death instead of date reported:
> >  >
> >  > Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
> >  >
> >  > These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
> >  >
> >  > On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
> >  > mailto:m...@mailmt.com>  > >> wrote:
> >  >
> >  > Robert,
> >  >
> >  > That is BS.  Don't even get me started on national media.
> This
> >  > website has been running since the beginning of the year
> >  >
> >  >
> >
> https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
> >  >
> >  > Two things to keep in mind with Florida.  If you look at
> >  > worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+
> > cases.  That
> >  > doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day.  It was just
> > reported
> >  > on that day.  The arcis site is more accurate with the daily
> > count,
> >  > being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual
> death
> >  > day and not reported day.  Big difference with the graph.
> >  >
> >  > As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting,
> > there is
> >  > an issue with counting deaths.  The total numbers from all
> the ME
> >  > offices were about 10% higher than what the state was
> officially
> >  > reporting.  Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double
> counts.
> >  > Died in different county than register as resident.  Counted
> > in both
> >  > counties.  The state decided that they would be the ones to
> > report
> >  > the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their
> numbers
> >  > public.  They are still collecting the data, but just not
> > reporting it.
> >  >
> >  > I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal
> > with
> >  > the media.  10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
> >  > overall numbers.  The national media is always getting things
> > wrong
> >  > about FL.  Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons
> falling
> >  > out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
> >  >
> >  > Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here.
> > I won't
> >  > go as far as saying the government is responsible for how
> well we
> >  > are doing.  I'm going mostly with environment and luck.
> > Things are
> >  > starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
> >  > months.  The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.
> >  >
> >  >
> >  >

[AFMUG] OT - patch Tuesday

[Ken Hohhof]

I saw there was an update yesterday when I shut down my laptop, didn't
realize it was another biggy.  At least there is still some news that has
nothing to do with politics or pandemics.

 

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/05/microsoft-patch-tuesday-may-2020-edition
/

 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Mike Black]

3.2M population with 5% tested = 16 tested.  6432 cases out of 16 
tested = 4% infection rate?

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:49 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Utah

3.2M population

5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little 
waiting)

6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.

73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.  

 

73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million

 

According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your 
lifetime is .31 or .0031%

So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by 
lightning than to die from this in Utah?

Did I make a math error?

 

From: James Howard 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM

To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

 

Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a turn 
for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on ventilator.  
Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  That’s more than 
14-18 days.

 

So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

 

Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

 

From: Bill Prince 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

To: af@af.afmug.com 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know 
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" 
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really 
know about it for 14-18 days.

 

bp

 

On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

image

 


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From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com




You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your allow list.

 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Chuck Macenski]

To calculate the infection rate of a specific population, you would need a
statistically significant randomized sample of the target population. Given
the testing regimen where people either self-select, take multiple tests,
or are symptomatic, I am not really sure what conclusions you can draw.

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 4:28 PM Mike Black  wrote:

> 3.2M population with 5% tested = 16 tested.  6432 cases out of 16
> tested = 4% infection rate?
>
>
>
> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:49 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> Utah
>
> 3.2M population
>
> 5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very
> little waiting)
>
> 6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.
>
> 73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.
>
>
>
> 73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million
>
>
>
> According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your
> lifetime is .31 or .0031%
>
> So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by
> lightning than to die from this in Utah?
>
> Did I make a math error?
>
>
>
> *From:* James Howard
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM
>
> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day
> (even if by a small amount).
>
>
>
> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used
> though they never came to fruition
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:
>
> Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.
>
>
>
> Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a
> turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on
> ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.
> That’s more than 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a
> bum for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to
> deal with the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and
> effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go
> slow with the dial.
>
>
>
> Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed
> to be going so good at first.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
> except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
>
> But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase
> 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima
> steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
> a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times
> over the past few months...
>
>
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
>
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> 
>
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> [image: image]
>
>
>
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> To: ja...@litewire.net
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> From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com
>
> *You received this message because the domain afmug.com 
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Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[Steve Jones]

you can draw that the rate of infection is probably lower than current
statistics show. Its just like cnn or fox taking a poll of their viewers.
all results will be skewed toward the intended answer, same here, the
intended outcome is keeping the rates up, but like those polls, history
will show that the actual numbers ar emuch less

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 4:41 PM Chuck Macenski  wrote:

> To calculate the infection rate of a specific population, you would need a
> statistically significant randomized sample of the target population. Given
> the testing regimen where people either self-select, take multiple tests,
> or are symptomatic, I am not really sure what conclusions you can draw.
>
> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 4:28 PM Mike Black  wrote:
>
>> 3.2M population with 5% tested = 16 tested.  6432 cases out of 16
>> tested = 4% infection rate?
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *
>> ch...@wbmfg.com
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:49 AM
>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>>
>>
>>
>> Utah
>>
>> 3.2M population
>>
>> 5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very
>> little waiting)
>>
>> 6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.
>>
>> 73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.
>>
>>
>>
>> 73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million
>>
>>
>>
>> According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your
>> lifetime is .31 or .0031%
>>
>> So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by
>> lightning than to die from this in Utah?
>>
>> Did I make a math error?
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* James Howard
>>
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM
>>
>> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
>>
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>>
>>
>>
>> Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day
>> (even if by a small amount).
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>>
>>
>>
>> The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used
>> though they never came to fruition
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:
>>
>> Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.
>>
>>
>>
>> Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a
>> turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on
>> ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.
>> That’s more than 14-18 days.
>>
>>
>>
>> So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a
>> bum for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to
>> deal with the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and
>> effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go
>> slow with the dial.
>>
>>
>>
>> Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It
>> seemed to be going so good at first.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>>
>>
>>
>> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each
>> week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
>>
>> But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a
>> phase 1 win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local
>> minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the
>> bottom in a month one month to go...   I think I have said that several
>> times over the past few months...
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Bill Prince
>>
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
>>
>> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>>
>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>>
>>
>>
>> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
>> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
>> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>>
>> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we
>> will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
>> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
>> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>>
>>
>>
>> bp
>>
>> 
>>
>>
>>
>> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>>
>> [image: image]
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> --
>> AF mailing list
>> AF@af.afmug.com
>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>>
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>>
>> --
>>
>> *Total Control Panel*
>>
>> Login 
>>
>> To: ja...@litewire.net
>> 

Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

[chuck]

No.
You cannot assume any of the cases were even tested out of the 16 number.  
There could have been 5000 cases before testing even started.  

From: Mike Black 
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 3:27 PM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

3.2M population with 5% tested = 16 tested.  6432 cases out of 16 
tested = 4% infection rate?

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:49 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Utah

3.2M population

5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little 
waiting)

6432 cases so far.  So that is .2% infection rate.

73 deaths so far.  1.1% death rate.  

 

73/3.2M = .23 or .0022%  22 per million

 

According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your 
lifetime is .31 or .0031%

So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by 
lightning than to die from this in Utah?

Did I make a math error?

 

From: James Howard 

Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM

To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' 

Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even 
if by a small amount).

 

From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

 

The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used 
though they never came to fruition

 

On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

  Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.

   

  Get infected.  Become contagious.  Infect others.  Show symptoms.  Take a 
turn for the worse.  Go into the hospital.  Transferred to ICU.  Put on 
ventilator.  Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover.  Die.  
That’s more than 14-18 days.

   

  So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum 
for quite a while.  And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with 
the exponential growth problem again.  Lag between cause and effect, plus 
exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial.

   

  Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia?  It seemed to 
be going so good at first.

   

  From: AF  On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
  To: af@af.afmug.com
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week 
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.

  But the trends do not seem to be going up.  So I will take that as a phase 1 
win.  Hopefully we are on the road to eradication.  If the local minima steps 
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a 
month one month to go...   I think I have said that several times over the 
past few months...

   

  From: Bill Prince 

  Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM

  To: af@af.afmug.com 

  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?

   

  I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the 
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, 
the linear curve is still rising.

  Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will 
know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening 
up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't 
really know about it for 14-18 days.

   

bp On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:



 


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[AFMUG] masks

[Robert]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbtdpiB1Byg


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Re: [AFMUG] OT: Caldo de Albondigas

[Ken Hohhof]

Albondigas sounds much yummier than meatballs.

Alboondigas!

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Jaime Solorza
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 6:14 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: [AFMUG] OT: Caldo de Albondigas

 

Meatball soup...yum yum

 

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Re: [AFMUG] OT: Caldo de Albondigas

[Jaime Solorza]

Claro que si mi buen Ken

On Wed, May 13, 2020, 5:46 PM Ken Hohhof  wrote:

> Albondigas sounds much yummier than meatballs.
>
> Alboondigas!
>
>
>
> *From:* AF  *On Behalf Of *Jaime Solorza
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 6:14 PM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
> *Subject:* [AFMUG] OT: Caldo de Albondigas
>
>
>
> Meatball soup...yum yum
>
>
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