The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used
though they never came to fruition
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com> wrote:
> Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.
>
>
>
> Get infected. Become contagious. Infect others. Show symptoms. Take a
> turn for the worse. Go into the hospital. Transferred to ICU. Put on
> ventilator. Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover. Die.
> That’s more than 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a
> bum for quite a while. And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to
> deal with the exponential growth problem again. Lag between cause and
> effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go
> slow with the dial.
>
>
>
> Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia? It seemed
> to be going so good at first.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
> except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
>
> But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase
> 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima
> steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in
> a month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times
> over the past few months...
>
>
>
> *From:* Bill Prince
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
>
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
>
>
>
> I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at
> the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening.
> However, the linear curve is still rising.
>
> Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will
> know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is
> "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate,
> we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
>
>
>
> bp
>
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
>
>
> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
> [image: image]
>
>
>
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