Title: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida. Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be the next NY. We had spring break, we have an older population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor. Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away. A republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going to get out of hand quickly.
Where are we today? 1827 deaths. That is only about 2% of the total deaths in the US. To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year. That comes out to about 50,838 deaths per quarter. Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths. Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL. Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of something else anyway.
We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate. I find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst of the worst.
The question is, why are we doing so well? Is it the government, the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?
I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not to start opening the state.
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Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:
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Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the graph
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
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Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times over the past few months...
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
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