LENT!
On 05/13/2020 11:16 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
I agree with your assessment as a fellow Florida man. ;-)
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
This is where the data comes from. It was created to track flu, but you
can see there is a column for total deaths too. You can break it down
by state, region, national.
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:10 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com <mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
Harold,
Just doing a quick calc. We are looking at 72000 deaths in that
time frame. That is less than 1% increase. That is a rounding
error. Being the yearly deaths increase naturally by 1% - 3% a
year, one can argue we will have a smaller increase this year than
normal.
BTW - where did you get that graph. I would like to keep track of
this and share it with a few co-workers.
--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
------
Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:14:35 PM, you wrote:
Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:
If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com <mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
Florida. Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY. We had spring break, we have an older
population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor. Our
hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away. A
republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
to get out of hand quickly.
Where are we today? 1827 deaths. That is only about 2% of the total
deaths in the US. To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year. That comes out to
about 50,838 deaths per quarter. Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths. Assuming there
is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase
of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a
natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in
FL. Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that
would have died of something else anyway.
We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate. I
find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only
testing the worst of the worst.
The question is, why are we doing so well? Is it the government,
the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?
I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason
not to start opening the state.
--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
------
Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:
Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think
matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question
is whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the
graph
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down
each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a
phase 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the
local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they
will hit the bottom in a month.... one month to go... I think I
have said that several times over the past few months...
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
*To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look
at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually
flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect,
we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the
country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts
the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>wrote:
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