Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months.
Get infected. Become contagious. Infect others. Show symptoms. Take a turn for the worse. Go into the hospital. Transferred to ICU. Put on ventilator. Linger for a month or more and probably don't recover. Die. That's more than 14-18 days. So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn't tell you if you're a hero or a bum for quite a while. And if you've caused an oops, now you've got to deal with the exponential growth problem again. Lag between cause and effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial. Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer's Apprentice in Fantasia? It seemed to be going so good at first. From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same. But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times over the past few months... From: Bill Prince Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising. Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: _____ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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