Here's another example of why you need to be careful on how data is
presented. Here is the deaths that WaPo shows (correctly labeled as
"reported" although I'm not sure how many people notice that):
Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.54.32 PM.png
And here is the same data as reported on the state of CO website which
is based on date of death instead of date reported:
Screen Shot 2020-05-13 at 1.44.11 PM.png
These 2 graphs are fairly different in shape I'd say.
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 1:33 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com <mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
Robert,
That is BS. Don't even get me started on national media. This
website has been running since the beginning of the year
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Two things to keep in mind with Florida. If you look at
worldometers site some days you'll see FL jump by 100+ cases. That
doesn't mean FL had those deaths on that day. It was just reported
on that day. The arcis site is more accurate with the daily count,
being they will go back and adjust the data based on actual death
day and not reported day. Big difference with the graph.
As for the media games and stories with FL not reporting, there is
an issue with counting deaths. The total numbers from all the ME
offices were about 10% higher than what the state was officially
reporting. Not sure why, they are thinking maybe double counts.
Died in different county than register as resident. Counted in both
counties. The state decided that they would be the ones to report
the official numbers and asked the ME to not make their numbers
public. They are still collecting the data, but just not reporting it.
I really don't understand why this has become such a big deal with
the media. 10% or even 20% doesn't really change much in the
overall numbers. The national media is always getting things wrong
about FL. Hurricanes wiping out the whole state, pythons falling
out of trees, gators attacking people everyday, etc.
Once again, I feel things have been handled well down here. I won't
go as far as saying the government is responsible for how well we
are doing. I'm going mostly with environment and luck. Things are
starting to open up, so we'll see what happens in the next few
months. The true test will be once the Orlando area opens up.
--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
------
Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 1:26:05 PM, you wrote:
FL was not releasing Covid numbers till last week, was in the
national news...
On 5/13/20 10:14 AM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
Here are deaths in FL for weeks 1-17 for 2020 vs 2018:
If you sum it up, there are 272 more total deaths during this time
period in FL in 2020 than in 2018.
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:50 AM Mark - Myakka Technologies
<m...@mailmt.com <mailto:m...@mailmt.com>> wrote:
I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of
Florida. Starting in February, if you believed the reports, we were
suppose to be the next NY. We had spring break, we have an older
population, we have Orlando, and we have a republican governor. Our
hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning people away. A
republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were going
to get out of hand quickly.
Where are we today? 1827 deaths. That is only about 2% of the total
deaths in the US. To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can
easily get) FL had 203,353 deaths for the year. That comes out to
about 50,838 deaths per quarter. Assuming the 1827 is off by 20%
due to under reporting (bit of a pissing match going on with state
and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19 deaths. Assuming there
is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get an increase
of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a
natural increase of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in
FL. Not to mention the overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that
would have died of something else anyway.
We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate. I
find that number very surprising being we are reportedly only
testing the worst of the worst.
The question is, why are we doing so well? Is it the government,
the people, the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?
I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason
not to start opening the state.
--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
------
Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:
Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think
matricide in some cases is the more humane solution The big question
is whether or not that would be a covid related death and add to the
graph
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down
each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a
phase 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the
local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they
will hit the bottom in a month.... one month to go... I think I
have said that several times over the past few months...
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
*To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look
at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually
flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect,
we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the
country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts
the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>wrote:
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