3.2M population with 5% tested = 160000 tested. 6432 cases out of 160000 tested = 4% infection rate?
From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:49 AM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? Utah 3.2M population 5% of the population tested (anyone can get tested on demand with very little waiting) 6432 cases so far. So that is .2% infection rate. 73 deaths so far. 1.1% death rate. 73/3.2M = .000023 or .0022% 22 per million According to one source, your odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is .000031 or .0031% So, if any of this is correct, I am slightly more likely to be struck by lightning than to die from this in Utah? Did I make a math error? From: James Howard Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:34 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? Plus the fact that the pool of uninfected people gets smaller every day (even if by a small amount). From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Steve Jones Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:27 AM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? The problem with terms like exponential growth, is that theyre still used though they never came to fruition On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 10:15 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com> wrote: Your 14-18 days is optimistic IMHO, more likely 1-2 months. Get infected. Become contagious. Infect others. Show symptoms. Take a turn for the worse. Go into the hospital. Transferred to ICU. Put on ventilator. Linger for a month or more and probably don’t recover. Die. That’s more than 14-18 days. So as you turn the dial, the gauge doesn’t tell you if you’re a hero or a bum for quite a while. And if you’ve caused an oops, now you’ve got to deal with the exponential growth problem again. Lag between cause and effect, plus exponential growth if you screw up, means be careful and go slow with the dial. Remember Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia? It seemed to be going so good at first. From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 9:29 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same. But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase 1 win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima steps continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times over the past few months... From: Bill Prince Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM To: af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it? I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However, the linear curve is still rising. Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up" around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really know about it for 14-18 days. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote: image _____ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com _____ Total Control Panel Login <https://asp.reflexion.net/login?domain=litewire.net> To: ja...@litewire.net <https://asp.reflexion.net/address-properties?aID=242260993&domain=litewire.net> From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your allow list. _____ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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