Many people seem to assume they are not affected because their area is not New
York or New Jersey or Chicago, and that the difference is that those people are
different or live differently. To the extent this means dense population, mass
transit, etc. this may be partly true. To the extent this means those are
black and brown people, or poor people, or foreign people, or city people, or
Democrats, well … no comment. Other than I don’t think the virus cares about
most of those things.
But no doubt another big factor was the March 13 rush of Americans in Europe to
fly back, due to confusion about whether they would be unable to return after
the midnight deadline. They were required to fly into one of 13 designated
airports, presumably with enhanced screening and quarantine for people exposed
or infected. But it was clear at the time there was no enhanced screening,
people were crowded together at the airports, not checked, no masks or hand
sanitizer or temperature checks, and then they just got into their Ubers and
dispersed.
JFK, EWR and ORD were on the list of 13 airports. So was MIA. I’m going to
assume that Miami was not a popular portal for people returning from Europe.
New York, Newark and Chicago probably got the bulk of those flights. And those
people brought the virus from Europe. Maybe I’m wrong about Miami not being a
big destination for flights from Europe, but I know when I was traveling to
Europe on business, I either flew direct from Chicago, or connected in New York.
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:29 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
The students who came to Florida did not interact with the the locals very
much; especially the seniors in ALF and the like. They came down there, swapped
viruses, and took their infections back home with them.
Meanwhile, Florida man was hanging out in the swamps with the alligators.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 8:49 AM, Mark - Myakka Technologies wrote:
I have to put this in perspective for at least the state of Florida. Starting
in February, if you believed the reports, we were suppose to be the next NY.
We had spring break, we have an older population, we have Orlando, and we have
a republican governor. Our hospitals were suppose to be over run and turning
people away. A republican governor by default is incompetent, so things were
going to get out of hand quickly.
Where are we today? 1827 deaths. That is only about 2% of the total deaths in
the US. To dig even deeper, in 2017 (last year I can easily get) FL had
203,353 deaths for the year. That comes out to about 50,838 deaths per
quarter. Assuming the 1827 is off by 20% due to under reporting (bit of a
pissing match going on with state and ME's) that gives us about 2200 COVID-19
deaths. Assuming there is no overlap between COVID-19 and normal deaths we get
an increase of about 4% of deaths over 2017 deaths.
That 4% is most likely closer to 1% over 2019 being there is a natural increase
of about 1% - 2% per year on number of deaths in FL. Not to mention the
overlap of people who died of COVID-19 that would have died of something else
anyway.
We have almost 600,000 tests with only about a 7% positive rate. I find that
number very surprising being we are reportedly only testing the worst of the
worst.
The question is, why are we doing so well? Is it the government, the people,
the environment, pure dumb luck, or a combination?
I for one am very happy with the FL results so far and see no reason not to
start opening the state.
--
Best regards,
Mark <mailto:m...@mailmt.com> mailto:m...@mailmt.com
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
<http://www.Myakka.com> www.Myakka.com
------
Wednesday, May 13, 2020, 11:03:56 AM, you wrote:
Its all over. My mom sent me an Alex Jones video. I almost think matricide in
some cases is the more humane solution The big question is whether or not that
would be a covid related death and add to the graph
On Wed, May 13, 2020 at 9:29 AM < <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> ch...@wbmfg.com>
wrote:
Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase 1
win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima steps
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a
month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times over the
past few months...
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However,
the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up"
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really
know about it for 14-18 days.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
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