Well the local minima seems to be taking nice orderly steps down each week
except for a couple weeks back where it stayed about the same.
But the trends do not seem to be going up. So I will take that as a phase 1
win. Hopefully we are on the road to eradication. If the local minima steps
continue on the same trend, it looks like they will hit the bottom in a
month.... one month to go... I think I have said that several times over the
past few months...
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2020 8:14 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Do I dare jinx it?
I would love if they still did the 7-day moving average. If you look at the
logarithmic curve of total deaths, the curve is actually flattening. However,
the linear curve is still rising.
Since there is about a 2 to 2-1/2 hysteresis to the action/effect, we will know
more sometime between May 24 and May 30. Much of the country is "opening up"
around May 10, so if that negatively impacts the death rate, we won't really
know about it for 14-18 days.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 5/13/2020 7:06 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
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