What boggles my mind is that the aggregated results are so consistently wrong. The aggregated efficacy of 67.5% is less than all the stratified efficacies. The 2 group efficacies are less than 9 out of 10 of the 10 group efficacies. I imagine plotting this and getting a little firework as the efficacy rates just keep going up and up. All of the aggregated efficacies are underestimates for all or almost all of the stratified efficacies.
I just read a NYTimes brief on measuring vaccine efficacy and saw plots in which the single number estimate for efficacy was surrounded by a region of uncertainty, which is what I expect when someone gives me a single number estimate of some measurement. I'm guessing that the clinical trials balanced age group participation in the trials so all age groups had the same vaccination rate, but I don't see how they could design to control for the increasing frailty of older bodies. Is it possible that the single number efficacy estimates understate the efficacy Oh, the quantity 1-vax/unvax is *efficacy* when measured during clinical trials. The same quantity is *effectiveness* when measured after vaccine deployment. A distinction which must be useful in some discussions. -- rec -- On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 11:21 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > Simpson's example: in a high school class females get higher grades in > their classes but males get higher scores on the SAT. For both genders SAT > scores and grades are positively correlated but in the whole class they are > negatively correlated. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 9:05 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> > wrote: > >> Indeed, Roger, >> >> Spirit of fun in the original already very clear. >> >> Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good >> reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of >> tautology, I do not understand. Fortunately _that_ is not an important >> question. >> >> Eric >> >> >> >> On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: >> >> Eric - >> >> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point: >> death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on. >> >> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to >> itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion. >> >> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few >> days. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> -- rec -- >> >> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐 >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger? >>>> >>>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which >>>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the >>>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one >>>> does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t >>>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are >>>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t >>>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that). >>>> Complain complain complain. >>>> >>>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of >>>> course, summary statistics. So: >>>> >>>> You said: >>>> >>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >>>> >>>> >>>> How about: >>>> >>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics! >>>> >>>> >>>> Eric >>>> >>>> >>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: >>>> >>>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today >>>> >>>> >>>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ >>>> >>>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: >>>> >>>> >>>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> >>>> >>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >>>> >>>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to >>>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could >>>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. >>>> >>>> -- rec -- >>>> >>>> >>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy >>>>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social >>>>> networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to >>>>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back >>>>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen. >>>>> >>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith >>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM >>>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>>>> friam@redfish.com> >>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax >>>>> >>>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other >>>>> conditions. >>>>> >>>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” >>>>> (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with >>>>> something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk >>>>> profile by category. >>>>> >>>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down…. >>>>> >>>>> Eric >>>>> >>>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we >>>>> should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals >>>>> being >>>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the >>>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near >>>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority >>>>> of >>>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she >>>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I >>>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of >>>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: >>>>> > >>>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK >>>>> > COVID-19 Data >>>>> > >>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>>>> > >>>>> m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ >>>>> > >>>>> LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n >>>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 >>>>> > >>>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor >>>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’ >>>>> > >>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>>>> > >>>>> m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e >>>>> > >>>>> 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ >>>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 >>>>> > >>>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun >>>>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really >>>>> want >>>>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. >>>>> But their source: >>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 >>>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. >>>>> > >>>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: >>>>> > >>>>> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars >>>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 >>>>> > >>>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is >>>>> higher than that among unvaxxed. >>>>> > >>>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is >>>>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these >>>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be >>>>> within error? >>>>> > >>>>> > -- >>>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ >>>>> > >>>>> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn >>>>> > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,fqQLi64iLssMYVmLhhr5W8t0KdMj_LE-IXRGm1vT8wMK2gPQywI6g3jvt0TsGwGqKRw2xXOg23Kouyrwk3s4pQeq7aJKphQnq4nB-Bu-GNStrNrMtw,,&typo=1> >>>>> un/subscribe >>>>> > >>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailm >>>>> > an%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2f2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,MKGWfqQ2Rq5b4hn9iSRvaahs4WgjbW9jAOdeU4ZqoXzT9toPBd-7CCO4Ts4HQA671NbIIzIkOILwQx2tI_FgCroihk_CnjcQHa4fNIGzmgDIVm5fvekhsNfMgKnJ&typo=1> >>>>> &c=E,1,5m3q9gwLjB5XgPfPMCUS8tSOyRmgs8 >>>>> > >>>>> oigic3gckRviSyeVj6o_a-VaEwwwPhcJt7wS65-CWA2pK-6wFh36mmNd1jOvXxdQYJTlzg >>>>> > ky_HdveQg2ry8kGqzQ,,&typo=1 FRIAM-COMIC >>>>> > >>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspo >>>>> > t.com >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ft.com&c=E,1,-7XZAMRZP6TA8dSxx_53ATuhaKiiofnaexLhMNZ74_ziSZfpFtS3N_L93yVoiW9xuICVr2DylBCCoHCtdKgUwMx7Ht-W9A4Q0-4GYJ6oO7X41yHzWBVf3ujc-1w,&typo=1> >>>>> %2f&c=E,1,g2WREPPELfNBefvRDG6LLsnR1UKZKBLNBalnm3PnxQvK_DKQefTBvLl >>>>> > Zy9Ci6bQW70bCMXoDcDNcdxjOxvGNQiXt9fPCIhZ6E-r5HJQdjHEGI71jMQ,,&typo=1 >>>>> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> - 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