This article may help https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8.pdf
On Thu, Aug 19, 2021 at 8:36 PM Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > What boggles my mind is that the aggregated results are so > consistently wrong. The aggregated efficacy of 67.5% is less than all the > stratified efficacies. The 2 group efficacies are less than 9 out of 10 of > the 10 group efficacies. I imagine plotting this and getting a little > firework as the efficacy rates just keep going up and up. All of the > aggregated efficacies are underestimates for all or almost all of the > stratified efficacies. > > I just read a NYTimes brief on measuring vaccine efficacy and saw plots in > which the single number estimate for efficacy was surrounded by a region of > uncertainty, which is what I expect when someone gives me a single number > estimate of some measurement. I'm guessing that the clinical trials > balanced age group participation in the trials so all age groups had the > same vaccination rate, but I don't see how they could design to control for > the increasing frailty of older bodies. Is it possible that the single > number efficacy estimates understate the efficacy > > Oh, the quantity 1-vax/unvax is *efficacy* when measured during clinical > trials. The same quantity is *effectiveness* when measured after vaccine > deployment. A distinction which must be useful in some discussions. > > -- rec -- > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 11:21 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Simpson's example: in a high school class females get higher grades in >> their classes but males get higher scores on the SAT. For both genders SAT >> scores and grades are positively correlated but in the whole class they are >> negatively correlated. >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 9:05 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> >> wrote: >> >>> Indeed, Roger, >>> >>> Spirit of fun in the original already very clear. >>> >>> Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good >>> reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of >>> tautology, I do not understand. Fortunately _that_ is not an important >>> question. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> >>> >>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: >>> >>> Eric - >>> >>> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that >>> point: death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so >>> on. >>> >>> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to >>> itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion. >>> >>> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few >>> days. >>> >>> -- rec -- >>> >>> -- rec -- >>> >>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐 >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> --- >>>> Frank C. Wimberly >>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>> >>>> 505 670-9918 >>>> Santa Fe, NM >>>> >>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger? >>>>> >>>>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which >>>>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the >>>>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one >>>>> does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t >>>>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are >>>>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and >>>>> can’t >>>>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that). >>>>> Complain complain complain. >>>>> >>>>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of >>>>> course, summary statistics. So: >>>>> >>>>> You said: >>>>> >>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> How about: >>>>> >>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the >>>>> statistics! >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Eric >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ >>>>> >>>>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> >>>>> >>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >>>>> >>>>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to >>>>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you >>>>> could >>>>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. >>>>> >>>>> -- rec -- >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the >>>>>> economy and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller >>>>>> social networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach >>>>>> themselves to these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity >>>>>> to >>>>>> push back except people that go way out of their way like Glen. >>>>>> >>>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>>> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith >>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM >>>>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>>>>> friam@redfish.com> >>>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax >>>>>> >>>>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other >>>>>> conditions. >>>>>> >>>>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” >>>>>> (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with >>>>>> something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk >>>>>> profile by category. >>>>>> >>>>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down…. >>>>>> >>>>>> Eric >>>>>> >>>>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we >>>>>> should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals >>>>>> being >>>>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the >>>>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near >>>>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority >>>>>> of >>>>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she >>>>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I >>>>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of >>>>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: >>>>>> UK >>>>>> > COVID-19 Data >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>>>>> > >>>>>> m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ >>>>>> > >>>>>> LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n >>>>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor >>>>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’ >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>>>>> > >>>>>> m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e >>>>>> > >>>>>> 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ >>>>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 >>>>>> > >>>>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a >>>>>> Falun Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't >>>>>> really want to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off >>>>>> as garbage. But their source: >>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 >>>>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars >>>>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 >>>>>> > >>>>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is >>>>>> higher than that among unvaxxed. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern >>>>>> is mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are >>>>>> these >>>>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be >>>>>> within error? >>>>>> > >>>>>> > -- >>>>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ >>>>>> > >>>>>> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>>> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn >>>>>> > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,fqQLi64iLssMYVmLhhr5W8t0KdMj_LE-IXRGm1vT8wMK2gPQywI6g3jvt0TsGwGqKRw2xXOg23Kouyrwk3s4pQeq7aJKphQnq4nB-Bu-GNStrNrMtw,,&typo=1> >>>>>> un/subscribe >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailm >>>>>> > an%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2f2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,MKGWfqQ2Rq5b4hn9iSRvaahs4WgjbW9jAOdeU4ZqoXzT9toPBd-7CCO4Ts4HQA671NbIIzIkOILwQx2tI_FgCroihk_CnjcQHa4fNIGzmgDIVm5fvekhsNfMgKnJ&typo=1> >>>>>> &c=E,1,5m3q9gwLjB5XgPfPMCUS8tSOyRmgs8 >>>>>> > >>>>>> oigic3gckRviSyeVj6o_a-VaEwwwPhcJt7wS65-CWA2pK-6wFh36mmNd1jOvXxdQYJTlzg >>>>>> > ky_HdveQg2ry8kGqzQ,,&typo=1 FRIAM-COMIC >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspo >>>>>> > t.com >>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ft.com&c=E,1,-7XZAMRZP6TA8dSxx_53ATuhaKiiofnaexLhMNZ74_ziSZfpFtS3N_L93yVoiW9xuICVr2DylBCCoHCtdKgUwMx7Ht-W9A4Q0-4GYJ6oO7X41yHzWBVf3ujc-1w,&typo=1> >>>>>> %2f&c=E,1,g2WREPPELfNBefvRDG6LLsnR1UKZKBLNBalnm3PnxQvK_DKQefTBvLl >>>>>> > Zy9Ci6bQW70bCMXoDcDNcdxjOxvGNQiXt9fPCIhZ6E-r5HJQdjHEGI71jMQ,,&typo=1 >>>>>> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> - 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