Eric - No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point: death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.
I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion. I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few days. -- rec -- -- rec -- On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐 > > > > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> > wrote: > >> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger? >> >> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which >> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the >> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one >> does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t >> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are >> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t >> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that). >> Complain complain complain. >> >> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of >> course, summary statistics. So: >> >> You said: >> >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >> >> >> How about: >> >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics! >> >> >> Eric >> >> >> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: >> >> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today >> >> >> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ >> >> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: >> >> >> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> >> >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >> >> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to >> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could >> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> >> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> >> wrote: >> >>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy >>> and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social >>> networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to >>> these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back >>> except people that go way out of their way like Glen. >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith >>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM >>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>> friam@redfish.com> >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax >>> >>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other >>> conditions. >>> >>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like >>> jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something >>> else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile by >>> category. >>> >>> Time, time, time, to chase things down…. >>> >>> Eric >>> >>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> > >>> > >>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should >>> fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being >>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the >>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near >>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of >>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she >>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I >>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of >>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: >>> > >>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK >>> > COVID-19 Data >>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ >>> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n >>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 >>> > >>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor >>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’ >>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >>> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e >>> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ >>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 >>> > >>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun >>> Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want >>> to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. >>> But their source: >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 >>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. >>> > >>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: >>> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars >>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 >>> > >>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher >>> than that among unvaxxed. >>> > >>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is >>> mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these >>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? 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