Wonderful. The Morris article checks pretty much every box I would have thought to ask for. The Conclusion section is like the last 15 pages of the musical score to Oklahoma. As my first-cellist student friend once commented, half in despair: “Then you get to the finale ultimo and there’s still more!”
You know what caught my eye, though, was the efficacy numbers in Morris’s 6th and final table. There is a thing we know about Gompertz distributions of morbidity and mortality. These are the distributions that say (originally for mortality, but there are similar patterns in morbidity) that the frequency (and, from sampling that, to some extent the diversity) of things you get sick or die of increases exponentially with age through the lifecourse, esp. if you can correct for things like violent death among the young that tend to add a constant component. But, for humans somewhere in the 80-90 year age frame, that exponential increase seems to stop. It’s not that people’s morbidity and mortality drop off, as if the survivors are somehow supermen: they continue to get sick at the full diversity and rate of the top of the exponential curve; it’s just that that rate levels off and remains roughly constant. I think I have heard numbers like 1/3 die per year in that late plateau stage. That seems a little high, but not wildly off: for every 10^5 people at age 90, there might be only one surviving to 100. Anyway, it is at that termination of the Gompertz exponential that we see this sudden increase in survivorship among the old and vaccinated. I wonder if the two are somehow related, and if, within what we already know, the correct statistical model is defined, or if there is some other variable we would need to measure. Eric > On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > > The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today > > https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ > > <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/> > > The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: > > https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> > > Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! > > Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take > two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try > offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. > > -- rec -- > > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com > <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and > their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks > and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to these crazy > ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except people that > go way out of their way like Glen. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On > Behalf Of David Eric Smith > Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com > <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax > > This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other > conditions. > > If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like jury > duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something else, > that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile by category. > > Time, time, time, to chase things down…. > > Eric > > > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com > > <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > > > > > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should fire > > her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun > > influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of > > hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think > > closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of > > hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she > > ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I > > decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of > > hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: > > > > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK > > COVID-19 Data > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ > > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n > > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 > > > > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls > > Mandates ‘Diabolic’ > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e > > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ > > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 > > > > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun Gong > > outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want to > > do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But > > their source: > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 > > > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1> > > seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. > > > > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: > > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars > > <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars> > > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 > > > > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher than > > that among unvaxxed. > > > > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is mostly > > about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these counter > > examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? 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