Indeed, Roger, Spirit of fun in the original already very clear.
Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of tautology, I do not understand. Fortunately _that_ is not an important question. Eric > On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > > Eric - > > No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point: > death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on. > > I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to > itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion. > > I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few days. > > -- rec -- > > -- rec -- > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com > <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com>> wrote: > So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐 > > > > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu > <mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote: > May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger? > > Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which feels > like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the difference > between what one can do with summary statistics and what one does with > population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t use terms > (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are explained > (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t explain > them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that). Complain > complain complain. > > Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of > course, summary statistics. So: > > You said: > >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! > > > How about: > >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics! > > > Eric > > >> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org >> <mailto:r...@elf.org>> wrote: >> >> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today >> >> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ >> >> <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/> >> >> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: >> >> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated >> >> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> >> >> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! >> >> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take >> two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try >> offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> >> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com >> <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: >> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and >> their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks >> and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to these >> crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except >> people that go way out of their way like Glen. >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> >> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith >> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com >> <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax >> >> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other >> conditions. >> >> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like >> jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something >> else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile by >> category. >> >> Time, time, time, to chase things down…. >> >> Eric >> >> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com >> > <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: >> > >> > >> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should fire >> > her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun >> > influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of >> > hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think >> > closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of >> > hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she >> > ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I >> > decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of >> > hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: >> > >> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK >> > COVID-19 Data >> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> >> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ >> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n >> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 >> > >> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls >> > Mandates ‘Diabolic’ >> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> >> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e >> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ >> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 >> > >> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun Gong >> > outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want to >> > do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But >> > their source: >> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 >> > >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1> >> > seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. >> > >> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: >> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars >> > <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars> >> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 >> > >> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher >> > than that among unvaxxed. >> > >> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is >> > mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these >> > counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be >> > within error? >> > >> > -- >> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ >> > >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn >> > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,fqQLi64iLssMYVmLhhr5W8t0KdMj_LE-IXRGm1vT8wMK2gPQywI6g3jvt0TsGwGqKRw2xXOg23Kouyrwk3s4pQeq7aJKphQnq4nB-Bu-GNStrNrMtw,,&typo=1> >> > un/subscribe >> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailm >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailm> >> > an%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2f2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,MKGWfqQ2Rq5b4hn9iSRvaahs4WgjbW9jAOdeU4ZqoXzT9toPBd-7CCO4Ts4HQA671NbIIzIkOILwQx2tI_FgCroihk_CnjcQHa4fNIGzmgDIVm5fvekhsNfMgKnJ&typo=1>&c=E,1,5m3q9gwLjB5XgPfPMCUS8tSOyRmgs8 >> > oigic3gckRviSyeVj6o_a-VaEwwwPhcJt7wS65-CWA2pK-6wFh36mmNd1jOvXxdQYJTlzg >> > ky_HdveQg2ry8kGqzQ,,&typo=1 FRIAM-COMIC >> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspo >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspo> >> > t.com >> > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ft.com&c=E,1,-7XZAMRZP6TA8dSxx_53ATuhaKiiofnaexLhMNZ74_ziSZfpFtS3N_L93yVoiW9xuICVr2DylBCCoHCtdKgUwMx7Ht-W9A4Q0-4GYJ6oO7X41yHzWBVf3ujc-1w,&typo=1>%2f&c=E,1,g2WREPPELfNBefvRDG6LLsnR1UKZKBLNBalnm3PnxQvK_DKQefTBvLl >> > Zy9Ci6bQW70bCMXoDcDNcdxjOxvGNQiXt9fPCIhZ6E-r5HJQdjHEGI71jMQ,,&typo=1 >> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> >> >> >> - 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