Excellent. Thanks for the Gelman and Morris explanations. As for paying for a couple of days off for Tami, she's only here for ~3 hours every 2 weeks. So, it's unclear how to go about giving her 2 days off... I'd gladly pay her $100 or so to go get the free vaccine. But my guess is that would be insulting.
On 8/18/21 3:00 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: > The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today > > https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ > > <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/> > > The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: > > https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated > > <https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated> > > Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! > > Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take > two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try > offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. > > -- rec -- > > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com > <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > > Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy > and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social > networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to > these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except > people that go way out of their way like Glen. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com > <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith > Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com > <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax > > This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other > conditions. > > If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like > jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something > else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile by > category. > > Time, time, time, to chase things down…. > > Eric > > > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com > <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > > > > > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should > fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun > influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of > hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think > closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of > hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she > ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I > decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of > hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: > > > > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK > > COVID-19 Data > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ > > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n > > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 > > > > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor > Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’ > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e > > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ > > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 > > > > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun > Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want > to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But > their source: > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1> > seems legit. And the numbers in the > article seem to match Table 4. > > > > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: > > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars > <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars> > > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 > > > > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher > than that among unvaxxed. > > > > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is > mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these > counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be > within error? > > -- ☤>$ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
