May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger? Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that). Complain complain complain.
Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of course, summary statistics. So: You said: > Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! How about: > Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics! Eric > On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > > The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today > > https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ > > <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/> > > The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog: > > https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1> > > Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data! > > Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take > two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try > offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated. > > -- rec -- > > > On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com > <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and > their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks > and lower spatial density. And further they attach themselves to these crazy > ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except people that > go way out of their way like Glen. > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On > Behalf Of David Eric Smith > Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com > <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax > > This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other > conditions. > > If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like jury > duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something else, > that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile by category. > > Time, time, time, to chase things down…. > > Eric > > > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com > > <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > > > > > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should fire > > her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun > > influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of > > hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think > > closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of > > hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she > > ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I > > decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of > > hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this: > > > > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK > > COVID-19 Data > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_ > > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n > > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1 > > > > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls > > Mandates ‘Diabolic’ > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co> > > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e > > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ > > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1 > > > > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun Gong > > outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want to > > do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But > > their source: > > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 > > > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1> > > seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4. > > > > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: > > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars > > <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars> > > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 > > > > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher than > > that among unvaxxed. > > > > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is mostly > > about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these counter > > examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? 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