Brings up a Quote that someone once told me about an hour after I found out my mom had been killed by a drunk driver.   I was sailboat racing in BVI at the time.   "It's all unimportant ( referring to all the other stuff we do ) when someone dear to us dies )...

On 4/26/20 10:07 AM, Lewis Bergman wrote:
Not the only way. We could just open everything back up and let those that have resistance win the day. Eventually, things will level out, burial related industries will struggle to keep up for a while but that will also even out.

On Sun, Apr 26, 2020 at 10:39 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:

    What happens if we learn that you are not immune after having had
    it before...  We all just presume that there may be a herd
    immunity feature available to us.  Perhaps not.  Perhaps
    isolation, hard quarantining and hopefully an effective treatment
    is the only way out...
    *From:* Bill Prince
    *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 9:23 AM
    *To:* af@af.afmug.com
    *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

    There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating
    reasons. One is the asymptomatic infection problem, and how long
    that lasts. The other is that the symptoms are "similar" to the
    flu, and sometimes other things. One headline that caught my
    attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people
    listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have
    been reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.

    I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the
    situation at present:

        /“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the
        coronavirus in San Clara County or California or the U.S. That
        ship has sailed. Even self-reporting would be inherently
        inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave
        Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history of it
        is by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners
        all over the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been
        signing death certificates as strokes or heart attacks or
        natural causes.”/

    bp
    <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

    On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
    Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't
    treating this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick,
    when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER epidemics. It has a 2-10 day
    period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
         I was agreeing with him up until that point.
        Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same
    extrapolation of the testing vs sick numbers that many have done
    before ( including myself ) which is BAD Science.   It's not a
    good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from, because the
    testing has not been randomly done across gen pop!   The people
    who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms.   This
    may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but
    it's still NOT science.
         He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the
    results of the number of cases in his region.   Gee wilikers I
    want to hear the same information done from actual scientific
    method testing.   Then he says "hundreds of thousands of deaths
    which were inaccurate"...   Um we are over 54K deaths and the
    curve ISN'T going down.  It seems to have leveled off but is
    still going strong.   In basically 1.5 months.  We are 1/4+ the
    way to the model with social distancing. Without social
    distancing we could start making a gain on the other
    models.       I think this is yet another example of someone,
    this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social
    distancing and says it's overreaction. And then he talks about
    0.1% of death and then 92% recovery.   Um doesn't that sound like
    8% who DON'T recover?   And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of
    the population in a much shorter time from not social distancing,
    what happens to the hospitals?     Sorry but this is an "agenda"
    again...

    IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!

    On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:

    
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g

    *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken
    Hohhof
    *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
    *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
    *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

    Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to
    engage in “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other
    dwelling beings.

    https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26

    *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
    *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
    *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
    *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

    I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry

    On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones
    <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

        That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb,
        political correctness. This is serious business, and
        housewives get nervous. A nervous housewife can make a whole
        lot of bad decisions. Those bad decisions have real world
        consequenses that dont care about being politically correct.
        You can say house person if you want. Well maybe being,
        since son is in person, indicating Male, if a gender
        actually exists. And I guess house indicates some level of
        financial status.

        Would you feel better about "dwelling being".

        "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does
        that make you feel better?

        Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is
        suffering severe post partum depression in the middle of the
        end of the world, looking for templates on making masks, so
        i dont come home to the real world consequense of my babies
        drown in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that
        would be PC or not.

        On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson
        <br...@pooh.com> wrote:

            “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”

            Really? You’re aware this is 2020, right?

                On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones
                <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

                

                You asked

                What was recomended by the White House. Regional
                opening with result driven response. (Without
                rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases over
                the weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are
                related, so the increase is pretty irrelevant.)
                Tracing is more important than testing. That's just
                a matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you
                can be infected, and test negative if you were
                recently infected, you can get infected at a test
                site. You can test positive from an environmental
                exposure without having actually caught it. It's
                like MRSA of the nairs.

                Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely
                hotspots. I'd personally put the bulk of the funding
                into tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered.
                Particularly request the tracking data from mobile
                devices. If its volunteered, you have a map. If they
                dont, well, you work with what you have.

                "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to
                effectively test would be real time monitoring.
                Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.

                The governors each now have in their possession the
                location of every single test processing facility in
                the nation. So what little relevance testing
                actually plays in management is their responsibility
                to delegate coordination. So it's a moot issue.

                Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory
                scrub scrub (to be honest, I dont understand any
                public venue that wouldn't be surface
                decontaminating once ever 24 hours minimum anyway,
                there's no shortage of killitol level disinfectants)

                I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If
                it were mandatory rated filtration masks that would
                be different.

                But there isnt a production capacity for that on the
                entire planet. But since it makes people feel like
                they're doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is
                actually a powerful medication for much of what ails
                society. Plus the homemade masks are keeping
                housewives occupied and less nervous. That actually
                matters.

                Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory
                compensated closure. Example being a county here in
                illinois that has a processor who has over 20
                employees infected, they're still operational. There
                is autonomy and constitutional rights, and then
                there is stupidity and a true public health risk.
                That falls under the latter and should be closed
                pending decontamination.

                A forcible closure, from a document able and
                legitimate public health risk should require medical
                screening of all staff/administration prior to
                resuming activities. There is no shortage of
                available healthcare practitioners right now, so
                depts of public health can contract that . Once
                again, the focus should be on tracing. Heavily
                funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the above
                mentioned case has probably long since recovered.
                Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test
                negative now. Cases like this are where antibody
                testing should be prioritized, assuming there is
                consent.

                Tracing

                The same applies to public venues. If tracing
                identifies probable contamination, the venue scrubs.
                Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, tracing
                tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it
                is voluntarily submitted. Voluntarily being key and
                subjective, since it will be a whole lot quicker to
                clear a location of all tracing resources are made
                readily available. Call it extortion if you want, it
                is what it is, and it is a tool.

                Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people
                happenned to have been in the same place, it doesnt
                need to necessarily be shut down. But the threshold
                must be clearly defined. We have very little that is
                clearly defined. That has a whole lot to do with the
                defiance. Selling seeds being a prime example, at no
                point did illinois shut that down, yet places
                cordoned them off and facebook images went nuts.
                This is literally the same thing that cause the
                rapid spread in the US, images of empty shelves.
                Many of the people protesting still dont know that
                nurseries and greenhouses were specifically deemed
                essential last week, but that's why they're there.
                Clearly define everything, on the state and county
                websites. Accurate information is critical. That and
                tracing.

                Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If
                a region declines, shut it down. If a region does
                well, progress the stages. Exactly as the feds
                recommend.

                Define and justify every single essential and non
                essential industry. With a mandatory state
                clarification within 24 hours of a designation
                request. Justify being key. And publicly accessible
                designations. This would be fluid and ongoing.

                Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family
                needs clarification. As it reads, I cant take my
                family fishing in illinois because the designated
                limit is 2. This will get police in situations with
                bad outcomes because nobody bothered to clarify.

                If a region's medical resources are verifiably and
                documented to be taxed to a predefined and clearly
                defined level, then ease back on the stages, all the
                way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and
                public opinion arent the metrics. The staffing
                levels and documented patient loads define that.

                I can continue

                On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski
                <ch...@macenski.com> wrote:

                    Would you please articulate specifically "what
                    is right" in this situation? I am asking for
                    your non-political opinion of the most
                    constructive way forward.

                    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones
                    <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

                        I sit back and watch as people contradict
                        their own statements. "Its going to be here
                        like this for years" "tests are growing, as
                        is the number" "it's been here longer than
                        we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh
                        testing" "it's going to be worse in fall"
                        "mitigation has had a major impact"

                        The best is regarding the medication mien
                        fuehrer liked. "Its only anecdotal" "a tiny
                        group had a negative outcome, thisnis the
                        gold standard and this drug must be banned"

                        I live in a state where our governor is in a
                        pissing contest with the White House, but
                        doing pretty much what the White House
                        recommends, with the exception of looking at
                        things by region. We only have two regions,
                        chicago, and people who voted for the
                        current president at 1600. So the whole of
                        downstate will be punished for not voting
                        the right way. When asked about the data,
                        for the "science" behind this, we were told
                        the state doesnt own the data, so we cant
                        see it.

                        I'm part of a foster parent group. One of
                        the fosters is utterly destroyed right now.
                        Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact
                        with died 3 days ago at 15. He had returned
                        home, but went back into the system during
                        this (our state, in its infinite wisdom has
                        effectively shut down the foster support
                        system, non essential and all) he couldn't
                        come back to her because she is at capacity.
                        He had cancer and was in a drug trial. He
                        had been thriving. The governors orders
                        didnt allow for him to get access to the
                        trial resources, so he lost his trial spot,
                        as is the nature of trials. There were no
                        resources available to get him into a linear
                        treatment. 3 days ago he succumbed to the
                        complication. While anecdotal, this is
                        exactly what the cure being worse than the
                        disease looks like. Granted, the speed at
                        which he declined from thriving to dead
                        indicates underlying issues, the chicago
                        emperors orders made certain there were no
                        resources. Right now, thanks to the emperors
                        orders, there are approximately zero
                        resources available to the foster families.
                        Anticipate a whole lot of negative outcomes.

                        Point is, everybody is more concerned about
                        proving how wrong their political enemy is,
                        that nobody is even actually looking for
                        what is right.

                        Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and
                        this will, like all ailments of proximity,
                        diminish in the next week or so.

                        On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince
                        <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                            Just listened (in part) to a discussion
                            about COVID-19 as it regards China/US
                            relations. It is a discussion between
                            Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( former
                            undersecretary of defense and co-founder
                            of strategic-advisory firm WestExec.),
                            and Michael Auslin (historian at
                            Stanford University’s Hoover Institution).

                            Within the discussion Auslin asserts
                            that the death toll within Wuhan alone
                            was between 45 and 47 thousand; at least
                            10X what they have reported through
                            official channels. He gets his data
                            through croudsourcing crematoria
                            activity and the number of people
                            picking up urns of deceased family members.

                            If you don't have time to listen to
                            this, it is at least worth a read of the
                            transcript.

                                https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

                            bp

                            <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                            On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:

                                This virus doesn't care if you are a
                                Republican, a Democrat, an
                                Independent, agnostic, religious or
                                an atheist...if it gets you it might
                                kill you...

                                Stay smart, listen to doctors and
                                scientists....not ineptus maximus
                                politicians.

                                On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill
                                Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                                    As we test more, we are
                                    undoubtedly going to find more
                                    cases that were previously going
                                    undetected (asymptomatic
                                    infection). This is a long way
                                    from over. The other thing we
                                    have not come to grips with is
                                    the uneven spread/mitigation.

                                    There was an interesting graphic
                                    for the state of California
                                    showing the state as a whole
                                    versus just the Bay Area
                                    (Mercury News this morning). The
                                    7 counties around the bay
                                    instituted shelter in place very
                                    early, and it's beginning to
                                    show in the statistics. The Bay
                                    Area accounts for almost 18% of
                                    the entire state population (7
                                    of the 40 million).

                                    bp

                                    <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                                    On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM,
                                    ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

                                        Might be Chebyshev BPF
                                        though... hopefully...Bessell.

                                        Hopefully not high pass...

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