Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER epidemics.   It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
     I was agreeing with him up until that point.
    Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself ) which is BAD Science.   It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop!   The people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms.   This may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT science.      He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of the number of cases in his region.   Gee wilikers I want to hear the same information done from actual scientific method testing.   Then he says "hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"...   Um we are over 54K deaths and the curve ISN'T going down.  It seems to have leveled off but is still going strong.   In basically 1.5 months.  We are 1/4+ the way to the model with social distancing.   Without social distancing we could start making a gain on the other models.       I think this is yet another example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social distancing and says it's overreaction.   And then he talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery.   Um doesn't that sound like 8% who DON'T recover?   And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens to the hospitals?     Sorry but this is an "agenda" again...

IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!

On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g

*From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken Hohhof
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
*To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.

https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26

*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry

On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:

    That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb,
    political correctness. This is serious business, and housewives
    get nervous. A nervous housewife can make a whole lot of bad
    decisions. Those bad decisions have real world consequenses that
    dont care about being politically correct. You can say house
    person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in person,
    indicating Male, if a gender actually exists. And I guess house
    indicates some level of financial status.

    Would you feel better about "dwelling being".

    "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that make
    you feel better?

    Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is
    suffering severe post partum depression in the middle of the end
    of the world, looking for templates on making masks, so i dont
    come home to the real world consequense of my babies drown in the
    bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that would be PC or not.

    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com
    <mailto:br...@pooh.com>> wrote:

        “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”

        Really?  You’re aware this is 2020, right?

            On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones
            <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com
            <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:

            

            You asked

            What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening
            with result driven response. (Without rhetoric, example,
            my county TRIPLED its cases over the weekend. It went from
            1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the increase is
            pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than
            testing. That's just a matter of fact, testing is a slice
            in time, you can be infected, and test negative if you
            were recently infected, you can get infected at a test
            site. You can test positive from an environmental exposure
            without having actually caught it. It's like MRSA of the
            nairs.

            Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely
            hotspots. I'd personally put the bulk of the funding into
            tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered. Particularly
            request the tracking data from mobile devices. If its
            volunteered, you have a map. If they dont, well, you work
            with what you have.

            "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to
            effectively test would be real time monitoring. Which A.
            Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.

            The governors each now have in their possession the
            location of every single test processing facility in the
            nation. So what little relevance testing actually plays in
            management is their responsibility to delegate
            coordination. So it's a moot issue.

            Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub
            scrub (to be honest, I dont understand any public venue
            that wouldn't be surface decontaminating once ever 24
            hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of killitol
            level disinfectants)

            I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it
            were mandatory rated filtration masks that would be
            different.

            But there isnt a production capacity for that on the
            entire planet. But since it makes people feel like they're
            doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is actually a
            powerful medication for much of what ails society. Plus
            the homemade masks are keeping housewives occupied and
            less nervous. That actually matters.

            Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated
            closure. Example being a county here in illinois that has
            a processor who has over 20 employees infected, they're
            still operational. There is autonomy and constitutional
            rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public
            health risk. That falls under the latter and should be
            closed pending decontamination.

            A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate
            public health risk should require medical screening of all
            staff/administration prior to resuming activities. There
            is no shortage of available healthcare practitioners right
            now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once
            again, the focus should be on tracing. Heavily funded
            tracing. "Patient zero" in the above mentioned case has
            probably long since recovered. Tracing is where they are
            identified, as theyll test negative now. Cases like this
            are where antibody testing should be prioritized, assuming
            there is consent.

            Tracing

            The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies
            probable contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff
            are cleared, tracing, tracing tracing. Video surveillance
            has a huge role where it is voluntarily submitted.
            Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a
            whole lot quicker to  clear a location of all tracing
            resources are made readily available. Call it extortion if
            you want, it is what it is, and it is a tool.

            Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned
            to have been in the same place, it doesnt need to
            necessarily be shut down. But the threshold must be
            clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly
            defined. That has a whole lot to do with the defiance.
            Selling seeds being a prime example, at no point did
            illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned them off and
            facebook images went nuts. This is literally the same
            thing that cause the rapid spread in the US, images of
            empty shelves. Many of the people protesting still dont
            know that nurseries and greenhouses were specifically
            deemed essential last week, but that's why they're there.
            Clearly define everything, on the state and county
            websites. Accurate information is critical. That and tracing.

            Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a
            region declines, shut it down. If a region does well,
            progress the stages. Exactly as the feds recommend.

            Define and justify every single essential and non
            essential industry. With a mandatory state clarification
            within 24 hours of a designation request. Justify being
            key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be
            fluid and ongoing.

            Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs
            clarification. As it reads, I cant take my family fishing
            in illinois because the designated limit is 2. This will
            get police in situations with bad outcomes because nobody
            bothered to clarify.

            If a region's medical resources are verifiably and
            documented to be taxed to a predefined and clearly defined
            level, then ease back on the stages, all the way to
            lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion
            arent the metrics. The staffing levels and documented
            patient loads define that.

            I can continue

            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski
            <ch...@macenski.com <mailto:ch...@macenski.com>> wrote:

                Would you please articulate specifically "what is
                right" in this situation? I am asking for your
                non-political opinion of the most constructive way
                forward.

                On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones
                <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com
                <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:

                    I sit back and watch as people contradict their
                    own statements. "Its going to be here like this
                    for years" "tests are growing, as is the number"
                    "it's been here longer than we think" "it hasn't
                    peaked because muh testing" "it's going to be
                    worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact"

                    The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer 
                    liked. "Its only anecdotal" "a tiny group had a
                    negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard and
                    this drug must be banned"

                    I live in a state where our governor is in a
                    pissing contest with the White House, but doing
                    pretty much what the White House recommends, with
                    the exception of looking at things by region. We
                    only have two regions, chicago, and people who
                    voted for the current president at 1600. So the
                    whole of downstate will be punished for not voting
                    the right way. When asked about the data, for the
                    "science" behind this, we were told the state
                    doesnt own the data, so we cant see it.

                    I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the
                    fosters is utterly destroyed right now. Her prior
                    ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3 days
                    ago at 15. He had returned home, but went back
                    into the system during this (our state, in its
                    infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the
                    foster support system, non essential and all) he
                    couldn't come back to her because she is at
                    capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug trial.
                    He had been thriving. The governors orders didnt
                    allow for him to get access to the trial
                    resources, so he lost his trial spot, as is the
                    nature of trials. There were no resources
                    available to get him into a linear treatment. 3
                    days ago he succumbed to the complication. While
                    anecdotal, this is exactly what the cure being
                    worse than the disease looks like. Granted, the
                    speed at which he declined from thriving to dead
                    indicates underlying issues, the chicago emperors
                    orders made certain there were no resources. Right
                    now, thanks to the emperors orders, there are
                    approximately zero resources available to the
                    foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of
                    negative outcomes.

                    Point is, everybody is more concerned about
                    proving how wrong their political enemy is, that
                    nobody is even actually looking for what is right.

                    Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this
                    will, like all ailments of proximity, diminish in
                    the next week or so.

                    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince
                    <part15...@gmail.com <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>>
                    wrote:

                        Just listened (in part) to a discussion about
                        COVID-19 as it regards China/US relations. It
                        is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle
                        Flournoy ( former undersecretary of defense
                        and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm
                        WestExec.), and Michael Auslin (historian at
                        Stanford University’s Hoover Institution).

                        Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the
                        death toll within Wuhan alone was between 45
                        and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have
                        reported through official channels. He gets
                        his data through croudsourcing crematoria
                        activity and the number of people picking up
                        urns of deceased family members.

                        If you don't have time to listen to this, it
                        is at least worth a read of the transcript.

                            https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

                        bp

                        <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                        On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:

                            This virus doesn't care if you are a
                            Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
                            agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it
                            gets you it might kill you...

                            Stay smart, listen to doctors and
                            scientists....not ineptus maximus
                            politicians.

                            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince
                            <part15...@gmail.com
                            <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:

                                As we test more, we are undoubtedly
                                going to find more cases that were
                                previously going undetected
                                (asymptomatic infection). This is a
                                long way from over. The other thing we
                                have not come to grips with is the
                                uneven spread/mitigation.

                                There was an interesting graphic for
                                the state of California showing the
                                state as a whole versus just the Bay
                                Area (Mercury News this morning). The
                                7 counties around the bay instituted
                                shelter in place very early, and it's
                                beginning to show in the statistics.
                                The Bay Area accounts for almost 18%
                                of the entire state population (7 of
                                the 40 million).

                                bp

                                <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                                On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com
                                <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:

                                    Might be Chebyshev BPF though...
                                    hopefully...Bessell.

                                    Hopefully not high pass...

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