Why must it be one of two things, completely locked down or completely free?
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
Midwest Internet Exchange
The Brothers WISP
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lewis Bergman" <lewis.berg...@gmail.com>
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" <af@af.afmug.com>
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:07:52 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
Not the only way. We could just open everything back up and let those that have
resistance win the day. Eventually, things will level out, burial related
industries will struggle to keep up for a while but that will also even out.
On Sun, Apr 26, 2020 at 10:39 AM < ch...@wbmfg.com > wrote:
What happens if we learn that you are not immune after having had it before...
We all just presume that there may be a herd immunity feature available to us.
Perhaps not. Perhaps isolation, hard quarantining and hopefully an effective
treatment is the only way out...
From: Bill Prince
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 9:23 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is the
asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is that the
symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One headline
that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people
listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have been
reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.
I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation at
present:
<blockquote>
“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the coronavirus in San Clara
County or California or the U.S. That ship has sailed. Even self-reporting
would be inherently inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara County Supervisor
Dave Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history of it is by
counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners all over the country
haven’t done a better job. They’ve been signing death certificates as strokes
or heart attacks or natural causes.”
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
<blockquote>
Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this
like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER
epidemics. It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
I was agreeing with him up until that point.
Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of the
testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself ) which
is BAD Science. It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from,
because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop! The people who
get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms. This may under guess the
number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT science.
He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of the
number of cases in his region. Gee wilikers I want to hear the same information
done from actual scientific method testing. Then he says "hundreds of thousands
of deaths which were inaccurate"... Um we are over 54K deaths and the curve
ISN'T going down. It seems to have leveled off but is still going strong. In
basically 1.5 months. We are 1/4+ the way to the model with social distancing.
Without social distancing we could start making a gain on the other models. I
think this is yet another example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at
the results of successful social distancing and says it's overreaction. And
then he talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery. Um doesn't that sound
like 8% who DON'T recover? And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the
population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens to
the hospitals? Sorry but this is an "agenda" again...
IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!
On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:
<blockquote>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g
From: AF [ mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com ] On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in “spring
cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.
https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26
From: AF < af-boun...@af.afmug.com > On Behalf Of Steve Jones
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group < af@af.afmug.com >
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry
On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones < thatoneguyst...@gmail.com > wrote:
<blockquote>
That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb, political
correctness. This is serious business, and housewives get nervous. A nervous
housewife can make a whole lot of bad decisions. Those bad decisions have real
world consequenses that dont care about being politically correct. You can say
house person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in person, indicating
Male, if a gender actually exists. And I guess house indicates some level of
financial status.
Would you feel better about "dwelling being".
"Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that make you feel
better?
Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is suffering severe
post partum depression in the middle of the end of the world, looking for
templates on making masks, so i dont come home to the real world consequense of
my babies drown in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that would be
PC or not.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson < br...@pooh.com > wrote:
<blockquote>
“keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”
Really? You’re aware this is 2020, right?
<blockquote>
On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones < thatoneguyst...@gmail.com > wrote:
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
You asked
What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening with result driven
response. (Without rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases over the
weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the increase is
pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than testing. That's just a
matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you can be infected, and test
negative if you were recently infected, you can get infected at a test site.
You can test positive from an environmental exposure without having actually
caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs.
Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely hotspots. I'd personally put
the bulk of the funding into tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered.
Particularly request the tracking data from mobile devices. If its volunteered,
you have a map. If they dont, well, you work with what you have.
"Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to effectively test would be real
time monitoring. Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.
The governors each now have in their possession the location of every single
test processing facility in the nation. So what little relevance testing
actually plays in management is their responsibility to delegate coordination.
So it's a moot issue.
Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub scrub (to be honest, I
dont understand any public venue that wouldn't be surface decontaminating once
ever 24 hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of killitol level
disinfectants)
I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it were mandatory rated
filtration masks that would be different.
But there isnt a production capacity for that on the entire planet. But since
it makes people feel like they're doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is
actually a powerful medication for much of what ails society. Plus the homemade
masks are keeping housewives occupied and less nervous. That actually matters.
Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated closure. Example
being a county here in illinois that has a processor who has over 20 employees
infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy and constitutional
rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public health risk. That falls
under the latter and should be closed pending decontamination.
A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate public health risk
should require medical screening of all staff/administration prior to resuming
activities. There is no shortage of available healthcare practitioners right
now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once again, the focus should
be on tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the above mentioned
case has probably long since recovered. Tracing is where they are identified,
as theyll test negative now. Cases like this are where antibody testing should
be prioritized, assuming there is consent.
Tracing
The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies probable
contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, tracing
tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily submitted.
Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a whole lot quicker to
clear a location of all tracing resources are made readily available. Call it
extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a tool.
Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned to have been in the
same place, it doesnt need to necessarily be shut down. But the threshold must
be clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly defined. That has a
whole lot to do with the defiance. Selling seeds being a prime example, at no
point did illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned them off and facebook
images went nuts. This is literally the same thing that cause the rapid spread
in the US, images of empty shelves. Many of the people protesting still dont
know that nurseries and greenhouses were specifically deemed essential last
week, but that's why they're there. Clearly define everything, on the state and
county websites. Accurate information is critical. That and tracing.
Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a region declines, shut it
down. If a region does well, progress the stages. Exactly as the feds
recommend.
Define and justify every single essential and non essential industry. With a
mandatory state clarification within 24 hours of a designation request. Justify
being key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be fluid and
ongoing.
Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs clarification. As it
reads, I cant take my family fishing in illinois because the designated limit
is 2. This will get police in situations with bad outcomes because nobody
bothered to clarify.
If a region's medical resources are verifiably and documented to be taxed to a
predefined and clearly defined level, then ease back on the stages, all the way
to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion arent the metrics.
The staffing levels and documented patient loads define that.
I can continue
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski < ch...@macenski.com > wrote:
<blockquote>
Would you please articulate specifically "what is right" in this situation? I
am asking for your non-political opinion of the most constructive way forward.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones < thatoneguyst...@gmail.com >
wrote:
<blockquote>
I sit back and watch as people contradict their own statements. "Its going to
be here like this for years" "tests are growing, as is the number" "it's been
here longer than we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh testing" "it's going
to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact"
The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer liked. "Its only anecdotal"
"a tiny group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard and this drug
must be banned"
I live in a state where our governor is in a pissing contest with the White
House, but doing pretty much what the White House recommends, with the
exception of looking at things by region. We only have two regions, chicago,
and people who voted for the current president at 1600. So the whole of
downstate will be punished for not voting the right way. When asked about the
data, for the "science" behind this, we were told the state doesnt own the
data, so we cant see it.
I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the fosters is utterly destroyed
right now. Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3 days ago at
15. He had returned home, but went back into the system during this (our state,
in its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the foster support system, non
essential and all) he couldn't come back to her because she is at capacity. He
had cancer and was in a drug trial. He had been thriving. The governors orders
didnt allow for him to get access to the trial resources, so he lost his trial
spot, as is the nature of trials. There were no resources available to get him
into a linear treatment. 3 days ago he succumbed to the complication. While
anecdotal, this is exactly what the cure being worse than the disease looks
like. Granted, the speed at which he declined from thriving to dead indicates
underlying issues, the chicago emperors orders made certain there were no
resources. Right now, thanks to the emperors orders, there are approximately
zero resources available to the foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of
negative outcomes.
Point is, everybody is more concerned about proving how wrong their political
enemy is, that nobody is even actually looking for what is right.
Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this will, like all ailments of
proximity, diminish in the next week or so.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote:
<blockquote>
Just listened (in part) to a discussion about COVID-19 as it regards China/US
relations. It is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( former
undersecretary of defense and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm WestExec.),
and Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution).
Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the death toll within Wuhan alone was
between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have reported through
official channels. He gets his data through croudsourcing crematoria activity
and the number of people picking up urns of deceased family members.
If you don't have time to listen to this, it is at least worth a read of the
transcript.
<blockquote>
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/
</blockquote>
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:
<blockquote>
This virus doesn't care if you are a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it gets you it might kill you...
Stay smart, listen to doctors and scientists....not ineptus maximus
politicians.
On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote:
<blockquote>
As we test more, we are undoubtedly going to find more cases that were
previously going undetected (asymptomatic infection). This is a long way from
over. The other thing we have not come to grips with is the uneven
spread/mitigation.
There was an interesting graphic for the state of California showing the state
as a whole versus just the Bay Area (Mercury News this morning). The 7 counties
around the bay instituted shelter in place very early, and it's beginning to
show in the statistics. The Bay Area accounts for almost 18% of the entire
state population (7 of the 40 million).
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
<blockquote>
Might be Chebyshev BPF though... hopefully...Bessell.
Hopefully not high pass...
</blockquote>
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