WHEN they start using the accurate tests...

On 4/26/20 8:33 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
After the fact, large numbers of antibody testing will tell the tale.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 9:23 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is the asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is that the symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One headline that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have been reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.

I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation at present:

    /“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the
    coronavirus in San Clara County or California or the U.S. That
    ship has sailed. Even self-reporting would be inherently
    inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave
    Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history of it is
    by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners all
    over the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been signing
    death certificates as strokes or heart attacks or natural causes.”/

bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER epidemics.   It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
     I was agreeing with him up until that point.
    Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself ) which is BAD Science.   It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop!   The people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms.   This may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT science.      He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of the number of cases in his region.   Gee wilikers I want to hear the same information done from actual scientific method testing.   Then he says "hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"...   Um we are over 54K deaths and the curve ISN'T going down.  It seems to have leveled off but is still going strong.   In basically 1.5 months.  We are 1/4+ the way to the model with social distancing.   Without social distancing we could start making a gain on the other models.       I think this is yet another example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social distancing and says it's overreaction.   And then he talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery.   Um doesn't that sound like 8% who DON'T recover?   And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens to the hospitals?     Sorry but this is an "agenda" again...

IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!

On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g

*From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken Hohhof
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
*To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.

https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26

*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry

On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

    That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb,
    political correctness. This is serious business, and housewives
    get nervous. A nervous housewife can make a whole lot of bad
    decisions. Those bad decisions have real world consequenses that
    dont care about being politically correct. You can say house
    person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in person,
    indicating Male, if a gender actually exists. And I guess house
    indicates some level of financial status.

    Would you feel better about "dwelling being".

    "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that
    make you feel better?

    Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is
    suffering severe post partum depression in the middle of the end
    of the world, looking for templates on making masks, so i dont
    come home to the real world consequense of my babies drown in
    the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that would be PC or
    not.

    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com>
    wrote:

        “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”

        Really?  You’re aware this is 2020, right?

            On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones
            <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

            

            You asked

            What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening
            with result driven response. (Without rhetoric, example,
            my county TRIPLED its cases over the weekend. It went
            from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the increase
            is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than
            testing. That's just a matter of fact, testing is a
            slice in time, you can be infected, and test negative if
            you were recently infected, you can get infected at a
            test site. You can test positive from an environmental
            exposure without having actually caught it. It's like
            MRSA of the nairs.

            Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely
            hotspots. I'd personally put the bulk of the funding
            into tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered.
            Particularly request the tracking data from mobile
            devices. If its volunteered, you have a map. If they
            dont, well, you work with what you have.

            "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to
            effectively test would be real time monitoring. Which A.
            Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.

            The governors each now have in their possession the
            location of every single test processing facility in the
            nation. So what little relevance testing actually plays
            in management is their responsibility to delegate
            coordination. So it's a moot issue.

            Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub
            scrub (to be honest, I dont understand any public venue
            that wouldn't be surface decontaminating once ever 24
            hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of killitol
            level disinfectants)

            I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it
            were mandatory rated filtration masks that would be
            different.

            But there isnt a production capacity for that on the
            entire planet. But since it makes people feel like
            they're doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is
            actually a powerful medication for much of what ails
            society. Plus the homemade masks are keeping housewives
            occupied and less nervous. That actually matters.

            Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory
            compensated closure. Example being a county here in
            illinois that has a processor who has over 20 employees
            infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy
            and constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity
            and a true public health risk. That falls under the
            latter and should be closed pending decontamination.

            A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate
            public health risk should require medical screening of
            all staff/administration prior to resuming activities.
            There is no shortage of available healthcare
            practitioners right now, so depts of public health can
            contract that . Once again, the focus should be on
            tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the
            above mentioned case has probably long since recovered.
            Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test
            negative now. Cases like this are where antibody testing
            should be prioritized, assuming there is consent.

            Tracing

            The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies
            probable contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable
            staff are cleared, tracing, tracing tracing. Video
            surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily
            submitted. Voluntarily being key and subjective, since
            it will be a whole lot quicker to  clear a location of
            all tracing resources are made readily available. Call
            it extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a
            tool.

            Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned
            to have been in the same place, it doesnt need to
            necessarily be shut down. But the threshold must be
            clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly
            defined. That has a whole lot to do with the defiance.
            Selling seeds being a prime example, at no point did
            illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned them off
            and facebook images went nuts. This is literally the
            same thing that cause the rapid spread in the US, images
            of empty shelves. Many of the people protesting still
            dont know that nurseries and greenhouses were
            specifically deemed essential last week, but that's why
            they're there. Clearly define everything, on the state
            and county websites. Accurate information is critical.
            That and tracing.

            Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a
            region declines, shut it down. If a region does well,
            progress the stages. Exactly as the feds recommend.

            Define and justify every single essential and non
            essential industry. With a mandatory state clarification
            within 24 hours of a designation request. Justify being
            key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be
            fluid and ongoing.

            Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family
            needs clarification. As it reads, I cant take my family
            fishing in illinois because the designated limit is 2.
            This will get police in situations with bad outcomes
            because nobody bothered to clarify.

            If a region's medical resources are verifiably and
            documented to be taxed to a predefined and clearly
            defined level, then ease back on the stages, all the way
            to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public
            opinion arent the metrics. The staffing levels and
            documented patient loads define that.

            I can continue

            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski
            <ch...@macenski.com> wrote:

                Would you please articulate specifically "what is
                right" in this situation? I am asking for your
                non-political opinion of the most constructive way
                forward.

                On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones
                <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

                    I sit back and watch as people contradict their
                    own statements. "Its going to be here like this
                    for years" "tests are growing, as is the number"
                    "it's been here longer than we think" "it hasn't
                    peaked because muh testing" "it's going to be
                    worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact"

                    The best is regarding the medication mien
                    fuehrer liked. "Its only anecdotal" "a tiny
                    group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold
                    standard and this drug must be banned"

                    I live in a state where our governor is in a
                    pissing contest with the White House, but doing
                    pretty much what the White House recommends,
                    with the exception of looking at things by
                    region. We only have two regions, chicago, and
                    people who voted for the current president at
                    1600. So the whole of downstate will be punished
                    for not voting the right way. When asked about
                    the data, for the "science" behind this, we were
                    told the state doesnt own the data, so we cant
                    see it.

                    I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the
                    fosters is utterly destroyed right now. Her
                    prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died
                    3 days ago at 15. He had returned home, but went
                    back into the system during this (our state, in
                    its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down
                    the foster support system, non essential and
                    all) he couldn't come back to her because she is
                    at capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug
                    trial. He had been thriving. The governors
                    orders didnt allow for him to get access to the
                    trial resources, so he lost his trial spot, as
                    is the nature of trials. There were no resources
                    available to get him into a linear treatment. 3
                    days ago he succumbed to the complication. While
                    anecdotal, this is exactly what the cure being
                    worse than the disease looks like. Granted, the
                    speed at which he declined from thriving to dead
                    indicates underlying issues, the chicago
                    emperors orders made certain there were no
                    resources. Right now, thanks to the emperors
                    orders, there are approximately zero resources
                    available to the foster families. Anticipate a
                    whole lot of negative outcomes.

                    Point is, everybody is more concerned about
                    proving how wrong their political enemy is, that
                    nobody is even actually looking for what is right.

                    Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this
                    will, like all ailments of proximity, diminish
                    in the next week or so.

                    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince
                    <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                        Just listened (in part) to a discussion
                        about COVID-19 as it regards China/US
                        relations. It is a discussion between
                        Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( former
                        undersecretary of defense and co-founder of
                        strategic-advisory firm WestExec.), and
                        Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford
                        University’s Hoover Institution).

                        Within the discussion Auslin asserts that
                        the death toll within Wuhan alone was
                        between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X
                        what they have reported through official
                        channels. He gets his data through
                        croudsourcing crematoria activity and the
                        number of people picking up urns of deceased
                        family members.

                        If you don't have time to listen to this, it
                        is at least worth a read of the transcript.

                            https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

                        bp

                        <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                        On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:

                            This virus doesn't care if you are a
                            Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
                            agnostic, religious or an atheist...if
                            it gets you it might kill you...

                            Stay smart, listen to doctors and
                            scientists....not ineptus maximus
                            politicians.

                            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill
                            Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                                As we test more, we are undoubtedly
                                going to find more cases that were
                                previously going undetected
                                (asymptomatic infection). This is a
                                long way from over. The other thing
                                we have not come to grips with is
                                the uneven spread/mitigation.

                                There was an interesting graphic for
                                the state of California showing the
                                state as a whole versus just the Bay
                                Area (Mercury News this morning).
                                The 7 counties around the bay
                                instituted shelter in place very
                                early, and it's beginning to show in
                                the statistics. The Bay Area
                                accounts for almost 18% of the
                                entire state population (7 of the 40
                                million).

                                bp

                                <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                                On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM,
                                ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

                                    Might be Chebyshev BPF though...
                                    hopefully...Bessell.

                                    Hopefully not high pass...

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