Utah seems to be far ahead of the curve...   Yep the mormons understand disease...

On 4/26/20 9:16 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
Because 100% of deaths in Utah are tested for Coronavirus...
*From:* Robert
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 10:07 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
There was just an interesting article written that lamented how inaccurate coroners have been on cause of death for the whole existence of coroners...   Like 50% accurate.   Why would they get better now?

On 4/26/20 8:23 AM, Bill Prince wrote:

There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is the asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is that the symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One headline that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have been reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.

I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation at present:

    /“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the
    coronavirus in San Clara County or California or the U.S. That
    ship has sailed. Even self-reporting would be inherently
    inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave
    Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history of it is
    by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners all
    over the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been signing
    death certificates as strokes or heart attacks or natural causes.”/

bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER epidemics.   It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms.
     I was agreeing with him up until that point.
    Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself ) which is BAD Science.   It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop!   The people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms.   This may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT science.      He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of the number of cases in his region.   Gee wilikers I want to hear the same information done from actual scientific method testing.   Then he says "hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"...   Um we are over 54K deaths and the curve ISN'T going down.  It seems to have leveled off but is still going strong.   In basically 1.5 months.  We are 1/4+ the way to the model with social distancing.   Without social distancing we could start making a gain on the other models.       I think this is yet another example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social distancing and says it's overreaction.   And then he talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery.   Um doesn't that sound like 8% who DON'T recover?   And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens to the hospitals?     Sorry but this is an "agenda" again...

IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!

On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g

*From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken Hohhof
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
*To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.

https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26

*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal

I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry

On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

    That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb,
    political correctness. This is serious business, and housewives
    get nervous. A nervous housewife can make a whole lot of bad
    decisions. Those bad decisions have real world consequenses
    that dont care about being politically correct. You can say
    house person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in
    person, indicating Male, if a gender actually exists. And I
    guess house indicates some level of financial status.

    Would you feel better about "dwelling being".

    "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that
    make you feel better?

    Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is
    suffering severe post partum depression in the middle of the
    end of the world, looking for templates on making masks, so i
    dont come home to the real world consequense of my babies drown
    in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that would be
    PC or not.

    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com>
    wrote:

        “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”

        Really?  You’re aware this is 2020, right?

            On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones
            <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

            

            You asked

            What was recomended by the White House. Regional
            opening with result driven response. (Without rhetoric,
            example, my county TRIPLED its cases over the weekend.
            It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the
            increase is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more
            important than testing. That's just a matter of fact,
            testing is a slice in time, you can be infected, and
            test negative if you were recently infected, you can
            get infected at a test site. You can test positive from
            an environmental exposure without having actually
            caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs.

            Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely
            hotspots. I'd personally put the bulk of the funding
            into tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered.
            Particularly request the tracking data from mobile
            devices. If its volunteered, you have a map. If they
            dont, well, you work with what you have.

            "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to
            effectively test would be real time monitoring. Which
            A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.

            The governors each now have in their possession the
            location of every single test processing facility in
            the nation. So what little relevance testing actually
            plays in management is their responsibility to delegate
            coordination. So it's a moot issue.

            Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub
            scrub (to be honest, I dont understand any public venue
            that wouldn't be surface decontaminating once ever 24
            hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of killitol
            level disinfectants)

            I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it
            were mandatory rated filtration masks that would be
            different.

            But there isnt a production capacity for that on the
            entire planet. But since it makes people feel like
            they're doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is
            actually a powerful medication for much of what ails
            society. Plus the homemade masks are keeping housewives
            occupied and less nervous. That actually matters.

            Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory
            compensated closure. Example being a county here in
            illinois that has a processor who has over 20 employees
            infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy
            and constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity
            and a true public health risk. That falls under the
            latter and should be closed pending decontamination.

            A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate
            public health risk should require medical screening of
            all staff/administration prior to resuming activities.
            There is no shortage of available healthcare
            practitioners right now, so depts of public health can
            contract that . Once again, the focus should be on
            tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the
            above mentioned case has probably long since recovered.
            Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test
            negative now. Cases like this are where antibody
            testing should be prioritized, assuming there is consent.

            Tracing

            The same applies to public venues. If tracing
            identifies probable contamination, the venue scrubs.
            Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, tracing tracing.
            Video surveillance has a huge role where it is
            voluntarily submitted. Voluntarily being key and
            subjective, since it will be a whole lot quicker to 
            clear a location of all tracing resources are made
            readily available. Call it extortion if you want, it is
            what it is, and it is a tool.

            Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people
            happenned to have been in the same place, it doesnt
            need to necessarily be shut down. But the threshold
            must be clearly defined. We have very little that is
            clearly defined. That has a whole lot to do with the
            defiance. Selling seeds being a prime example, at no
            point did illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned
            them off and facebook images went nuts. This is
            literally the same thing that cause the rapid spread in
            the US, images of empty shelves. Many of the people
            protesting still dont know that nurseries and
            greenhouses were specifically deemed essential last
            week, but that's why they're there. Clearly define
            everything, on the state and county websites. Accurate
            information is critical. That and tracing.

            Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a
            region declines, shut it down. If a region does well,
            progress the stages. Exactly as the feds recommend.

            Define and justify every single essential and non
            essential industry. With a mandatory state
            clarification within 24 hours of a designation request.
            Justify being key. And publicly accessible
            designations. This would be fluid and ongoing.

            Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family
            needs clarification. As it reads, I cant take my family
            fishing in illinois because the designated limit is 2.
            This will get police in situations with bad outcomes
            because nobody bothered to clarify.

            If a region's medical resources are verifiably and
            documented to be taxed to a predefined and clearly
            defined level, then ease back on the stages, all the
            way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and
            public opinion arent the metrics. The staffing levels
            and documented patient loads define that.

            I can continue

            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski
            <ch...@macenski.com> wrote:

                Would you please articulate specifically "what is
                right" in this situation? I am asking for your
                non-political opinion of the most constructive way
                forward.

                On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones
                <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:

                    I sit back and watch as people contradict their
                    own statements. "Its going to be here like this
                    for years" "tests are growing, as is the
                    number" "it's been here longer than we think"
                    "it hasn't peaked because muh testing" "it's
                    going to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had
                    a major impact"

                    The best is regarding the medication mien
                    fuehrer  liked. "Its only anecdotal" "a tiny
                    group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold
                    standard and this drug must be banned"

                    I live in a state where our governor is in a
                    pissing contest with the White House, but doing
                    pretty much what the White House recommends,
                    with the exception of looking at things by
                    region. We only have two regions, chicago, and
                    people who voted for the current president at
                    1600. So the whole of downstate will be
                    punished for not voting the right way. When
                    asked about the data, for the "science" behind
                    this, we were told the state doesnt own the
                    data, so we cant see it.

                    I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the
                    fosters is utterly destroyed right now. Her
                    prior ward, that she stayed in contact with
                    died 3 days ago at 15. He had returned home,
                    but went back into the system during this (our
                    state, in its infinite wisdom has effectively
                    shut down the foster support system, non
                    essential and all) he couldn't come back to her
                    because she is at capacity. He had cancer and
                    was in a drug trial. He had been thriving. The
                    governors orders didnt allow for him to get
                    access to the trial resources, so he lost his
                    trial spot, as is the nature of trials. There
                    were no resources available to get him into a
                    linear treatment. 3 days ago he succumbed to
                    the complication. While anecdotal, this is
                    exactly what the cure being worse than the
                    disease looks like. Granted, the speed at which
                    he declined from thriving to dead indicates
                    underlying issues, the chicago emperors orders
                    made certain there were no resources. Right
                    now, thanks to the emperors orders, there are
                    approximately zero resources available to the
                    foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of
                    negative outcomes.

                    Point is, everybody is more concerned about
                    proving how wrong their political enemy is,
                    that nobody is even actually looking for what
                    is right.

                    Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this
                    will, like all ailments of proximity, diminish
                    in the next week or so.

                    On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince
                    <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                        Just listened (in part) to a discussion
                        about COVID-19 as it regards China/US
                        relations. It is a discussion between
                        Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( former
                        undersecretary of defense and co-founder of
                        strategic-advisory firm WestExec.), and
                        Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford
                        University’s Hoover Institution).

                        Within the discussion Auslin asserts that
                        the death toll within Wuhan alone was
                        between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X
                        what they have reported through official
                        channels. He gets his data through
                        croudsourcing crematoria activity and the
                        number of people picking up urns of
                        deceased family members.

                        If you don't have time to listen to this,
                        it is at least worth a read of the transcript.

                            https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

                        bp

                        <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                        On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:

                            This virus doesn't care if you are a
                            Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
                            agnostic, religious or an atheist...if
                            it gets you it might kill you...

                            Stay smart, listen to doctors and
                            scientists....not ineptus maximus
                            politicians.

                            On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill
                            Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:

                                As we test more, we are undoubtedly
                                going to find more cases that were
                                previously going undetected
                                (asymptomatic infection). This is a
                                long way from over. The other thing
                                we have not come to grips with is
                                the uneven spread/mitigation.

                                There was an interesting graphic
                                for the state of California showing
                                the state as a whole versus just
                                the Bay Area (Mercury News this
                                morning). The 7 counties around the
                                bay instituted shelter in place
                                very early, and it's beginning to
                                show in the statistics. The Bay
                                Area accounts for almost 18% of the
                                entire state population (7 of the
                                40 million).

                                bp

                                <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

                                On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM,
                                ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:

                                    Might be Chebyshev BPF
                                    though... hopefully...Bessell.

                                    Hopefully not high pass...

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