It seems they are talking that you may need antibodies + T-cells for immunity, just a positive antibody test may not say you are immune. But the WHO statements seem to say there is no proof regarding immunity, in other words they don’t know yet. It’s like Kim Jong Un, he may be dead, he may be fine, they don’t know. The world is full of Schrodinger cats lately.
If forced to guess, I would say most people who have been infected have immunity, and most people with a positive antibody test are immune. I am also optimistic about convalescent plasma therapy, which relies on antibodies. And I am optimistic that a vaccine will eventually be available, although probably not this year. What nobody seems to believe is that immunity to this virus will last a lifetime or even more than a year or two. So in the future the vast majority of the population will have to get flu shots every year. And even this year, those like me who never get a flu shot need to get one, because we don’t need seasonal flu going on at the same time as Covid-19. From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 10:39 AM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal What happens if we learn that you are not immune after having had it before... We all just presume that there may be a herd immunity feature available to us. Perhaps not. Perhaps isolation, hard quarantining and hopefully an effective treatment is the only way out... From: Bill Prince Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 9:23 AM To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is the asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is that the symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One headline that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County had 29 people listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3) have been reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus. I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation at present: “We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the coronavirus in San Clara County or California or the U.S. That ship has sailed. Even self-reporting would be inherently inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara County Supervisor Dave Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent history of it is by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that coroners all over the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been signing death certificates as strokes or heart attacks or natural causes.” bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote: Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT LIKE OTHER epidemics. It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious _without_ symptoms. I was agreeing with him up until that point. Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself ) which is BAD Science. It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen pop from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop! The people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms. This may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still NOT science. He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results of the number of cases in his region. Gee wilikers I want to hear the same information done from actual scientific method testing. Then he says "hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"... Um we are over 54K deaths and the curve ISN'T going down. It seems to have leveled off but is still going strong. In basically 1.5 months. We are 1/4+ the way to the model with social distancing. Without social distancing we could start making a gain on the other models. I think this is yet another example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of successful social distancing and says it's overreaction. And then he talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery. Um doesn't that sound like 8% who DON'T recover? And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens to the hospitals? Sorry but this is an "agenda" again... IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU! On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g> &feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g From: AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings. https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26 From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> > On Behalf Of Steve Jones Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> > Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> > wrote: That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb, political correctness. This is serious business, and housewives get nervous. A nervous housewife can make a whole lot of bad decisions. Those bad decisions have real world consequenses that dont care about being politically correct. You can say house person if you want. Well maybe being, since son is in person, indicating Male, if a gender actually exists. And I guess house indicates some level of financial status. Would you feel better about "dwelling being". "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that make you feel better? Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is suffering severe post partum depression in the middle of the end of the world, looking for templates on making masks, so i dont come home to the real world consequense of my babies drown in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if her doing that would be PC or not. On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com <mailto:br...@pooh.com> > wrote: “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous” Really? You’re aware this is 2020, right? On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> > wrote: You asked What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening with result driven response. (Without rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases over the weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the increase is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than testing. That's just a matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you can be infected, and test negative if you were recently infected, you can get infected at a test site. You can test positive from an environmental exposure without having actually caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs. Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely hotspots. I'd personally put the bulk of the funding into tracing. Use every bit of data volunteered. Particularly request the tracking data from mobile devices. If its volunteered, you have a map. If they dont, well, you work with what you have. "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to effectively test would be real time monitoring. Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible. The governors each now have in their possession the location of every single test processing facility in the nation. So what little relevance testing actually plays in management is their responsibility to delegate coordination. So it's a moot issue. Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub scrub (to be honest, I dont understand any public venue that wouldn't be surface decontaminating once ever 24 hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of killitol level disinfectants) I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it were mandatory rated filtration masks that would be different. But there isnt a production capacity for that on the entire planet. But since it makes people feel like they're doing something, I'm all for it. Placebo is actually a powerful medication for much of what ails society. Plus the homemade masks are keeping housewives occupied and less nervous. That actually matters. Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated closure. Example being a county here in illinois that has a processor who has over 20 employees infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy and constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public health risk. That falls under the latter and should be closed pending decontamination. A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate public health risk should require medical screening of all staff/administration prior to resuming activities. There is no shortage of available healthcare practitioners right now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once again, the focus should be on tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient zero" in the above mentioned case has probably long since recovered. Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test negative now. Cases like this are where antibody testing should be prioritized, assuming there is consent. Tracing The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies probable contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff are cleared, tracing, tracing tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily submitted. Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a whole lot quicker to clear a location of all tracing resources are made readily available. Call it extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a tool. Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned to have been in the same place, it doesnt need to necessarily be shut down. But the threshold must be clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly defined. That has a whole lot to do with the defiance. Selling seeds being a prime example, at no point did illinois shut that down, yet places cordoned them off and facebook images went nuts. This is literally the same thing that cause the rapid spread in the US, images of empty shelves. Many of the people protesting still dont know that nurseries and greenhouses were specifically deemed essential last week, but that's why they're there. Clearly define everything, on the state and county websites. Accurate information is critical. That and tracing. Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a region declines, shut it down. If a region does well, progress the stages. Exactly as the feds recommend. Define and justify every single essential and non essential industry. With a mandatory state clarification within 24 hours of a designation request. Justify being key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be fluid and ongoing. Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs clarification. As it reads, I cant take my family fishing in illinois because the designated limit is 2. This will get police in situations with bad outcomes because nobody bothered to clarify. If a region's medical resources are verifiably and documented to be taxed to a predefined and clearly defined level, then ease back on the stages, all the way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion arent the metrics. The staffing levels and documented patient loads define that. I can continue On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski <ch...@macenski.com <mailto:ch...@macenski.com> > wrote: Would you please articulate specifically "what is right" in this situation? I am asking for your non-political opinion of the most constructive way forward. On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> > wrote: I sit back and watch as people contradict their own statements. "Its going to be here like this for years" "tests are growing, as is the number" "it's been here longer than we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh testing" "it's going to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact" The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer liked. "Its only anecdotal" "a tiny group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard and this drug must be banned" I live in a state where our governor is in a pissing contest with the White House, but doing pretty much what the White House recommends, with the exception of looking at things by region. We only have two regions, chicago, and people who voted for the current president at 1600. So the whole of downstate will be punished for not voting the right way. When asked about the data, for the "science" behind this, we were told the state doesnt own the data, so we cant see it. I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the fosters is utterly destroyed right now. Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3 days ago at 15. He had returned home, but went back into the system during this (our state, in its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the foster support system, non essential and all) he couldn't come back to her because she is at capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug trial. He had been thriving. The governors orders didnt allow for him to get access to the trial resources, so he lost his trial spot, as is the nature of trials. There were no resources available to get him into a linear treatment. 3 days ago he succumbed to the complication. While anecdotal, this is exactly what the cure being worse than the disease looks like. Granted, the speed at which he declined from thriving to dead indicates underlying issues, the chicago emperors orders made certain there were no resources. Right now, thanks to the emperors orders, there are approximately zero resources available to the foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of negative outcomes. Point is, everybody is more concerned about proving how wrong their political enemy is, that nobody is even actually looking for what is right. Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this will, like all ailments of proximity, diminish in the next week or so. On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com <mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote: Just listened (in part) to a discussion about COVID-19 as it regards China/US relations. It is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle Flournoy ( former undersecretary of defense and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm WestExec.), and Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution). Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the death toll within Wuhan alone was between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have reported through official channels. He gets his data through croudsourcing crematoria activity and the number of people picking up urns of deceased family members. If you don't have time to listen to this, it is at least worth a read of the transcript. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/ bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote: This virus doesn't care if you are a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it gets you it might kill you... Stay smart, listen to doctors and scientists....not ineptus maximus politicians. On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com <mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote: As we test more, we are undoubtedly going to find more cases that were previously going undetected (asymptomatic infection). This is a long way from over. The other thing we have not come to grips with is the uneven spread/mitigation. There was an interesting graphic for the state of California showing the state as a whole versus just the Bay Area (Mercury News this morning). The 7 counties around the bay instituted shelter in place very early, and it's beginning to show in the statistics. The Bay Area accounts for almost 18% of the entire state population (7 of the 40 million). bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: Might be Chebyshev BPF though... hopefully...Bessell. Hopefully not high pass... -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com !DSPAM:5ea4fd705986622617646! -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com !DSPAM:5ea4fd705986622617646! -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com _____ Total Control Panel Login <https://asp.reflexion.net/login?domain=litewire.net> To: ja...@litewire.net <https://asp.reflexion.net/address-properties?aID=242260993&domain=litewire.net> From: af-boun...@af.afmug.com <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> You received this message because the domain afmug.com is on your allow list. _____ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
-- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
