Why is utah so for ahead on the testing? Is it something to do with
Mormonism and the teamwork thing or unrelated?
On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 11:16 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
> Because 100% of deaths in Utah are tested for Coronavirus...
>
> *From:* Robert
> *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 10:07 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
>
> There was just an interesting article written that lamented how inaccurate
> coroners have been on cause of death for the whole existence of
> coroners... Like 50% accurate. Why would they get better now?
>
> On 4/26/20 8:23 AM, Bill Prince wrote:
>
> There is so much we don't know for a number of frustrating reasons. One is
> the asymptomatic infection problem, and how long that lasts. The other is
> that the symptoms are "similar" to the flu, and sometimes other things. One
> headline that caught my attention this morning is that Santa Clara County
> had 29 people listed as "dying of flu-like symptoms", and 9 (roughly 1/3)
> have been reclassified as COVID-19 after they tested for the virus.
>
> I snipped this from the article, and it pretty well sums up the situation
> at present:
>
> *“We’ll never, ever know how many people contracted the coronavirus in San
> Clara County or California or the U.S. That ship has sailed. Even
> self-reporting would be inherently inaccurate or impossible,” Santa Clara
> County Supervisor Dave Cortese said. “Our only hope of getting a decent
> history of it is by counting the dead. I’m really disappointed that
> coroners all over the country haven’t done a better job. They’ve been
> signing death certificates as strokes or heart attacks or natural causes.”*
>
>
>
> bp
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
>
> On 4/26/2020 8:12 AM, Robert wrote:
>
> Does it bug anyone else that this "doctor" says that we aren't treating
> this like other epidemics and quarantining the sick, when Covid-19 IS NOT
> LIKE OTHER epidemics. It has a 2-10 day period of being contagious
> _without_ symptoms.
> I was agreeing with him up until that point.
> Then he goes into the NY numbers and he does the same extrapolation of
> the testing vs sick numbers that many have done before ( including myself )
> which is BAD Science. It's not a good test case to extrapolate to the gen
> pop from, because the testing has not been randomly done across gen pop!
> The people who get tested typically are those who exhibit symptoms. This
> may under guess the number who have gotten it OR over guess, but it's still
> NOT science.
> He also neglects the effect of the quarantine actions on the results
> of the number of cases in his region. Gee wilikers I want to hear the
> same information done from actual scientific method testing. Then he says
> "hundreds of thousands of deaths which were inaccurate"... Um we are over
> 54K deaths and the curve ISN'T going down. It seems to have leveled off
> but is still going strong. In basically 1.5 months. We are 1/4+ the way
> to the model with social distancing. Without social distancing we could
> start making a gain on the other models. I think this is yet another
> example of someone, this time a doctor, who looks at the results of
> successful social distancing and says it's overreaction. And then he
> talks about 0.1% of death and then 92% recovery. Um doesn't that sound
> like 8% who DON'T recover? And if you throw 8% at the hospitals of the
> population in a much shorter time from not social distancing, what happens
> to the hospitals? Sorry but this is an "agenda" again...
>
> IT'S NOT LIKE THE FLU!
>
> On 4/26/20 7:34 AM, James Howard wrote:
>
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2Z1n4E0sxMyXc82UZxrXNKJqf9oaC_kF53Be6NZaVPnuP8jwTDKxk5w4g
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF [mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Ken Hohhof
> *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 8:13 AM
> *To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' mailto:af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
>
>
>
> Steve, the usual solution is for nervous dwelling beings to engage in
> “spring cleaning”, to the annoyance of all other dwelling beings.
>
>
>
> https://www.gocomics.com/breaking-cat-news/2020/04/26
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
> *Sent:* Sunday, April 26, 2020 12:27 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Dang, not normal
>
>
>
> I just reread that and am going to have to call a lent. Sorry
>
>
>
> On Sun, Apr 26, 2020, 12:19 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> That's another thing that really needs kicked to the curb, political
> correctness. This is serious business, and housewives get nervous. A
> nervous housewife can make a whole lot of bad decisions. Those bad
> decisions have real world consequenses that dont care about being
> politically correct. You can say house person if you want. Well maybe
> being, since son is in person, indicating Male, if a gender actually
> exists. And I guess house indicates some level of financial status.
>
> Would you feel better about "dwelling being".
>
> "Keeping dwelling beings occupied and less nervous" does that make you
> feel better?
>
>
>
> Fyi, that's specifically the reason I have my wife, who is suffering
> severe post partum depression in the middle of the end of the world,
> looking for templates on making masks, so i dont come home to the real
> world consequense of my babies drown in the bathtub. I'm not quite sure if
> her doing that would be PC or not.
>
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 11:56 PM Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com> wrote:
>
> “keeping housewives occupied and less nervous”
>
>
>
> Really? You’re aware this is 2020, right?
>
>
>
> On Apr 25, 2020, at 8:18 PM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> You asked
>
>
>
> What was recomended by the White House. Regional opening with result
> driven response. (Without rhetoric, example, my county TRIPLED its cases
> over the weekend. It went from 1 to 3, the 2 new ones are related, so the
> increase is pretty irrelevant.) Tracing is more important than testing.
> That's just a matter of fact, testing is a slice in time, you can be
> infected, and test negative if you were recently infected, you can get
> infected at a test site. You can test positive from an environmental
> exposure without having actually caught it. It's like MRSA of the nairs.
>
>
>
> Once identified, the tracing leads back to likely hotspots. I'd personally
> put the bulk of the funding into tracing. Use every bit of data
> volunteered. Particularly request the tracking data from mobile devices. If
> its volunteered, you have a map. If they dont, well, you work with what you
> have.
>
> "Testing" is a tool of politics. The only way to effectively test would be
> real time monitoring. Which A. Doesnt exist and B. Wouldn't be feasible.
>
>
>
> The governors each now have in their possession the location of every
> single test processing facility in the nation. So what little relevance
> testing actually plays in management is their responsibility to delegate
> coordination. So it's a moot issue.
>
>
>
> Any location exposed in tracing gets a mandatory scrub scrub (to be
> honest, I dont understand any public venue that wouldn't be surface
> decontaminating once ever 24 hours minimum anyway, there's no shortage of
> killitol level disinfectants)
>
>
>
> I think the mandatory face covering is nonsense. If it were mandatory
> rated filtration masks that would be different.
>
> But there isnt a production capacity for that on the entire planet. But
> since it makes people feel like they're doing something, I'm all for it.
> Placebo is actually a powerful medication for much of what ails society.
> Plus the homemade masks are keeping housewives occupied and less nervous.
> That actually matters.
>
>
>
> Occasionally a tracing may require a mandatory compensated closure.
> Example being a county here in illinois that has a processor who has over
> 20 employees infected, they're still operational. There is autonomy and
> constitutional rights, and then there is stupidity and a true public health
> risk. That falls under the latter and should be closed pending
> decontamination.
>
>
>
> A forcible closure, from a document able and legitimate public health risk
> should require medical screening of all staff/administration prior to
> resuming activities. There is no shortage of available healthcare
> practitioners right now, so depts of public health can contract that . Once
> again, the focus should be on tracing. Heavily funded tracing. "Patient
> zero" in the above mentioned case has probably long since recovered.
> Tracing is where they are identified, as theyll test negative now. Cases
> like this are where antibody testing should be prioritized, assuming there
> is consent.
>
>
>
> Tracing
>
>
>
> The same applies to public venues. If tracing identifies probable
> contamination, the venue scrubs. Applicable staff are cleared, tracing,
> tracing tracing. Video surveillance has a huge role where it is voluntarily
> submitted. Voluntarily being key and subjective, since it will be a whole
> lot quicker to clear a location of all tracing resources are made readily
> available. Call it extortion if you want, it is what it is, and it is a
> tool.
>
>
>
> Metrics must be clearly defined. If two people happenned to have been in
> the same place, it doesnt need to necessarily be shut down. But the
> threshold must be clearly defined. We have very little that is clearly
> defined. That has a whole lot to do with the defiance. Selling seeds being
> a prime example, at no point did illinois shut that down, yet places
> cordoned them off and facebook images went nuts. This is literally the same
> thing that cause the rapid spread in the US, images of empty shelves. Many
> of the people protesting still dont know that nurseries and greenhouses
> were specifically deemed essential last week, but that's why they're there.
> Clearly define everything, on the state and county websites. Accurate
> information is critical. That and tracing.
>
>
>
> Define regional thresholds for stages of opening. If a region declines,
> shut it down. If a region does well, progress the stages. Exactly as the
> feds recommend.
>
>
>
> Define and justify every single essential and non essential industry. With
> a mandatory state clarification within 24 hours of a designation request.
> Justify being key. And publicly accessible designations. This would be
> fluid and ongoing.
>
>
>
> Leisure activities need designations. Nuclear family needs clarification.
> As it reads, I cant take my family fishing in illinois because the
> designated limit is 2. This will get police in situations with bad outcomes
> because nobody bothered to clarify.
>
>
>
> If a region's medical resources are verifiably and documented to be taxed
> to a predefined and clearly defined level, then ease back on the stages,
> all the way to lockdown if need be. But media reports and public opinion
> arent the metrics. The staffing levels and documented patient loads define
> that.
>
>
>
>
>
> I can continue
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 9:01 PM Chuck Macenski <ch...@macenski.com> wrote:
>
> Would you please articulate specifically "what is right" in this
> situation? I am asking for your non-political opinion of the most
> constructive way forward.
>
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020 at 8:24 PM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> I sit back and watch as people contradict their own statements. "Its going
> to be here like this for years" "tests are growing, as is the number" "it's
> been here longer than we think" "it hasn't peaked because muh testing"
> "it's going to be worse in fall" "mitigation has had a major impact"
>
> The best is regarding the medication mien fuehrer liked. "Its only
> anecdotal" "a tiny group had a negative outcome, thisnis the gold standard
> and this drug must be banned"
>
>
>
> I live in a state where our governor is in a pissing contest with the
> White House, but doing pretty much what the White House recommends, with
> the exception of looking at things by region. We only have two regions,
> chicago, and people who voted for the current president at 1600. So the
> whole of downstate will be punished for not voting the right way. When
> asked about the data, for the "science" behind this, we were told the state
> doesnt own the data, so we cant see it.
>
>
>
> I'm part of a foster parent group. One of the fosters is utterly destroyed
> right now. Her prior ward, that she stayed in contact with died 3 days ago
> at 15. He had returned home, but went back into the system during this (our
> state, in its infinite wisdom has effectively shut down the foster support
> system, non essential and all) he couldn't come back to her because she is
> at capacity. He had cancer and was in a drug trial. He had been thriving.
> The governors orders didnt allow for him to get access to the trial
> resources, so he lost his trial spot, as is the nature of trials. There
> were no resources available to get him into a linear treatment. 3 days ago
> he succumbed to the complication. While anecdotal, this is exactly what the
> cure being worse than the disease looks like. Granted, the speed at which
> he declined from thriving to dead indicates underlying issues, the chicago
> emperors orders made certain there were no resources. Right now, thanks to
> the emperors orders, there are approximately zero resources available to
> the foster families. Anticipate a whole lot of negative outcomes.
>
>
>
> Point is, everybody is more concerned about proving how wrong their
> political enemy is, that nobody is even actually looking for what is right.
>
>
>
> Thankfully mother nature doesnt care and this will, like all ailments of
> proximity, diminish in the next week or so.
>
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 5:48 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Just listened (in part) to a discussion about COVID-19 as it regards
> China/US relations. It is a discussion between Dubner, Michèle Flournoy (
> former undersecretary of defense and co-founder of strategic-advisory firm
> WestExec.), and Michael Auslin (historian at Stanford University’s Hoover
> Institution).
>
> Within the discussion Auslin asserts that the death toll within Wuhan
> alone was between 45 and 47 thousand; at least 10X what they have reported
> through official channels. He gets his data through croudsourcing
> crematoria activity and the number of people picking up urns of deceased
> family members.
>
> If you don't have time to listen to this, it is at least worth a read of
> the transcript.
>
> https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/
>
>
>
> bp
>
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
>
>
> On 4/25/2020 3:11 PM, Jaime Solorza wrote:
>
> This virus doesn't care if you are a Republican, a Democrat, an
> Independent, agnostic, religious or an atheist...if it gets you it might
> kill you...
>
> Stay smart, listen to doctors and scientists....not ineptus maximus
> politicians.
>
>
>
> On Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 12:45 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> As we test more, we are undoubtedly going to find more cases that were
> previously going undetected (asymptomatic infection). This is a long way
> from over. The other thing we have not come to grips with is the uneven
> spread/mitigation.
>
> There was an interesting graphic for the state of California showing the
> state as a whole versus just the Bay Area (Mercury News this morning). The
> 7 counties around the bay instituted shelter in place very early, and it's
> beginning to show in the statistics. The Bay Area accounts for almost 18%
> of the entire state population (7 of the 40 million).
>
>
>
>
>
> bp
>
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
>
>
> On 4/25/2020 8:45 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Might be Chebyshev BPF though... hopefully...Bessell.
>
> Hopefully not high pass...
>
>
>
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