of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 1:48 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied
ank Wimberly
>>
>> My memoir:
>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
>>
>> My scientific publications:
>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
>>
>> Phone (505) 670-9918
>>
>> On Thu, Jan 2, 2020, 10:51 AM wro
t;>
>>
>> I think he is going to say that the migration IS the treatment.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>
>> Clark University
>>
>>
cks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, January 2, 2020 1:48 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] cl
erhaps "existing political boundaries" are no longer a viable or
> rational concept? >
>
>
>
> Side effects is a good way to look at it. No drug that works doesn't have
> side effects. Just have to ride them out and let the treatment do its
> thi
du/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 10:46 AM
> *To:* Tom Johnson ; The Friday Morning Applied
> Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
>
>
> Dave wr
I really appreciate lists like this. I'd add a few of my own: only fly on
business and only when necessary, work remotely as much as possible,
consolidate online orders to reduce the number of deliveries, tap water, etc. I
fail often, though, e.g. taking 2 extra bodies with me on my last busines
ly.
Marcus
From: Friam on behalf of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, January 2, 2020 10:48 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
And what treatment do you suggest, Marcus?
On Thu, Jan 2, 2020 at 9:4
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 10:46 AM
> *To:* Tom Johnson ; The Friday Morning Applied
> Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change
n/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Thursday, January 2, 2020 10:46 AM
To: Tom Johnson ; The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Dave writes:
< Even more scary are all the side eff
Just have to ride them out and let the treatment do
> its thing.
>
> Marcus
> --
> *From:* Friam on behalf of Tom Johnson <
> t...@jtjohnson.com>
> *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 1:20 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity C
ay, January 2, 2020 1:20 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
RE Dave West: So perhaps "existing political boundaries" are no longer a viable
or rational concept? (But I have yet to find a potential alternative.)
Tom
ay, January 2, 2020 2:39 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Merle wrote:
" ... the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes
facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the U.S ..."
Echo that
Merle wrote:
*" ... the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes
facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the U.S ..."*
Echo that
-- I am now experiencing two kinds of deep personal shame at the moment. One
because everybody but me knows and conver
y, January 1, 2020 12:30 PM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
> Nick,
>
> I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; it is
> the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even more scary
> are a
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:30 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Nick,
I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; it is
the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even more scary
are all the side effects as
Steven Smith and Stephen Guerin were two of the complex systems scientists
our organization (The Center for Emergent Diplomacy) invited to join a
conference we organized in Stockholm a few weeks ago--combining our guys
with our Swedish network of scientists and policy wonks working seriously
on cli
rsity
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:19 PM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
Dave writes:
< I don't see the point in supporting politicians like Ocasio-Cortez or even
Warren and trying to convince people to give up their cars or quit eating meat
in order to reduce the amount of carbon being put into the atmosphere, simply
because I have zero belief that it will happen.
On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 12:16 PM Douglass Carmichael
wrote:
> We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2, it is clear that
> we must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there is no existing
> politics todo it because it mans loss of jobs, failures of mortgages,
> collapse of banks
gt;
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:19 PM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
&g
Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:19 PM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subjec
Hi:
Mostly I monitor the group, but today since I'm very much involved in
solving the warming issue, I'll offer my argument. First, let's avoid the
estimates and look at what is happening. Most agree that storms,
earthquakes, fires, and other natural disasters are increasing. Let's just
focus o
Per Prof West's comments --
In some cases you state degrees F and in others the scale is unspecified.
It is good to keep the scale consistent. The IPCC uses degrees C.
For a good overview of the IPCC (including brief summaries of models) see
the wikipedia page. Since the IPCC is a large group whi
mpnicks...@gmail.com
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:59 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Marcus,
I haven’t known a Marxist for many years, but I think this corresponds to a
dictum of Marxist thought: Stop Feeding
ary 1, 2020 12:37 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>
>
> Let’s say we are able to bring the price of solar generated
> electricity below that of electricit
From: Friam On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:45 PM
To: doug carmichael ; The Friday Morning Applied
Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
It seems to me the solution is to do nothing. The world has to become
relative
can heal.
> --
> *From:* Friam on behalf of doug carmichael <
> d...@dougcarmichael.com>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:37 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change question
: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:37 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Let’s say we are able to bring the price of solar generated electricity below
that of electricity generated by fossil fuels. This leaves several important
/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:19 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
convict of what?
premeditated Gaia murder?
voluntary climate slaughter?
involuntary clima
g the jury.
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>> Clark University
>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>>> https://wordpress.clar
Nick,
I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; it is the
variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even more scary are all
the side effects as massive migrations that fail to respect existing political
boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in nationa
gt;>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>> Clark University
>> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam *On Behalf
d Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2, it is clear that we
must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there is no existing politics todo
it because it mans loss of jobs, failures of mortgages, colla
Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Com
ompson/>
>
>
> From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On
> Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate
as Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly
> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 202
il.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>Fr
>From NASA:
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/
---
Frank Wimberly
My memoir:
https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
My scientific publications:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
Phone (505) 670-9918
What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point
and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.
Frank
---
Frank Wimberly
My memoir:
https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly
My scientific publications:
https://www.resea
Dave,
I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a
challenge.
What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if
somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change
and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes,
chology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Pieter
> Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Sunday, December 31, 2017 12:39 AM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Ap
Although the sophist- ... icated tangent into groupthink and goodness of
thought might be interesting, it's politically bankrupt, as is any sort of
philosophical skepticism.
The problem is what to *do*, if anything. I think Carl's post targets this
most directly. It seems to me our policy opt
t/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Prof
> David West *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 8:36 PM *To:*
> friam@redfish.com *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change>
> In my most humble opinion:
>
>
ber 31, 2017 12:39 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Nick,
Referring to your What are the properties of good GroupThought: i.e., Group
Thought that is likely to survive experience into the deep future?
How does one define the
___
From: Friam on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Sunday, December 31, 2017 12:39:29 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Nick,
Referring to your What are the properties of good GroupThought: i.e., Group
Tho
of the works of individuals, but for it to be
coherent it needs to be made readable and writable in ways that are not
completely lossy.
Marcus
From: Friam on behalf of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, December 30, 2017 8:35 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re
to:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Prof
> David West *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 8:36 PM *To:*
> friam@redfish.com *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change>
> In my most humble opinion:
>
> 1) it evolves in real-time, not only when new data is received but
gt;
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Pieter
> Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Saturda
ttp://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/>
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, December 30, 2017 8:36 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
In m
December 30, 2017 1:32 PM *To:* The
> Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change>
> Nick,
>
> *_What are the properties of GroupThought that is likely to survive
> experience into the deep future?_*>
> Philip Tetlock
7 1:32 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Nick,
What are the properties of GroupThought that is likely to survive experience
into the deep future?
Philip Tetlock has done excellent work answering exactly that question. His
v
ick Thompson
Sent: Saturday, December 30, 2017 10:20:15 AM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Pieter,
Some months back, at the Friday Meeting of the FRIAM Mother Church at St.
Johns, we had a long discussion about the degree
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Pieter
> Steenekamp
> *Sent:* Saturday, December 30, 2017 5:27 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee
lexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Glen,
I'd like to comment on your comment a few posts earlier:
"*That* is why I think focusing on the workflows (modeling) is important.
Those of us who distrust the experts bear the burden of proof. Hence, we have
to r
satellite data. Obviously, these measurements
>>> were not possible except in the last few decades, never mind in the middle
>>> ages or before humans. So whether or not there were even particular kinds
>>> of climate anomalies is a subject of some debate.For example, were
>>> those periods wet or
global or
>> localized to certain regions?
>>
>>
>> Marcus
>> --
>> *From:* Friam on behalf of Nick Thompson <
>> nickthomp...@earthlink.net>
>> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 8:27:21 PM
>> *To:* 'The F
t>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 8:27:21 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> I dunno, I thought Pietr's point was kind of interesting. IF (and I don't
> know if the condition i
egions?
Marcus
From: Friam on behalf of Nick Thompson
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 8:27:21 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
I dunno, I thought Pietr's point was kind of interesting
Steve, I had hoped for awhile that climate change studies would yield the
possibility of a truly transdisciplinary breakthrough in complex systems
modeling, rather than the interdisciplinary effort you recall that provided
"useful checks and balances" on academic honestly. I take it from the
threa
or of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
-Original Message-
From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 5:40 PM
To: FriAM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
Well, I mean "
Well, I mean "models" writ large. Even when gathering and reducing
observational data, there's a workflow for doing that. That workflow relies on
a model of a sort. And integrating different data sets so that they're
commensurate also requires models. E.g. correlating tree ring based with oth
Pieter -
I think Eric responded extremely well to the actual gist of the (bent)
thread on Climate Change as it was elaborating.
The (thread's subject) question of whether there is significant
anthropogenic climate changes underway, the extent of them, how bad the
consequences are likely to be (
ogne could be fun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 1:04:39 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
My problem is that I fear that we have passed the p
No. I was truly asking. Sorry if I came off like I know something you don't.
I did try to keep up with the open sourced climate models I knew about, but
never managed to do it. This might be a good resource:
https://climate.apache.org/
On 12/29/2017 11:45 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> Ma
Maybe I do not appreciate fully how the models have evolved since 1990. I
have studied the reports and even for me it's it'd very complicated. Do you
mind giving me a simple explanation of what you are referring to?
On 29 December 2017 at 21:28, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> I agree that admitting one's mist
I agree that admitting one's mistakes and specifying (honest) uncertainty lends
credibility. But, as Eric says in his recent post, expressions of uncertainty
can be abused, as well. In this regard, scientists face a very difficult
dilemma.
It's interesting to consider a topic just as controve
Sorry; it would have helped if I had spelled your name correctly the first time.
Hurry is not of God,
Eric
> On Dec 29, 2017, at 12:18 PM, Eric Smith wrote:
>
> Hi Peter,
>
> By all means. I do not intend either aggression or even disrespect toward
> anybody who will argue any position hone
Hi Peter,
By all means. I do not intend either aggression or even disrespect toward
anybody who will argue any position honestly and in good faith.
The thing that I was attacking below, and which I think needs to be regarded as
an existential threat, is what I interpret as coordinated acting i
Thank you, I do appreciate.
Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in
engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40
years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not
necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine A
Yes, I think so. The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those with
whom we disagree. If someone posts, without rancor, an argument (preferably
with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way, I know *I* would
be interested.
I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn,
Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the
accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are
heading for disaster is challenged?
On 29 December 2017 at 20:25, Eric Smith wrote:
> I agree with both Glen and Jillian,
>
> this is more on the right tack.
I agree with both Glen and Jillian,
this is more on the right tack. It’s not about stupidity. It’s about a kind
of character degeneracy further down, and a certain kind of vileness that
becomes possible at that level.
I would add one thing to Jill’s and Glen’s emphasis (attention trolling),
And BTW, I don't merely mean "provoke", in a vapid way. I still believe Trump
and people like him, consciously or not, speak in ways such that the audience
or other discussants will fill in the blanks, themselves (as Lakoff pointed
out). Similar techniques are "dog whistling" and poetry. This
Sorry. A draft has gone.
On Friday, December 29, 2017, Alfredo Covaleda Vélez
wrote:
> A couple of years ago was published that about simulations predicting
permanent freezing un Europeos and North America because of global warming.
>
> On Friday, December 29, 2017, Jochen Fromm wrote:
>> This i
You called it, Gillian. Trump and his ilk (Milo, Spencer, etc.) thrive on
their ability to invoke. Beliefs and knowledge take a back seat, which is why
they are so capable of munging the facts and changing their tune when
confronted.
So I have to disagree fundamentally with Nick, Merle, Tom,
ntries.
Marcus
From: Friam on behalf of Tom Johnson
Sent: Friday, December 29, 2017 9:50:30 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
I think, too, it is a fundamental issue of education, or lack of it, in the
U.
al.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
-J.
Original message From: Nick Thompson
Date: 12/29/17 16:13 (GMT+01:00) To: 'The Friday
Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re:
[FRIAM] Climate Change
This is “our” fault. We have failed to articul
He is one of these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
The games I enjoy have a zero tollerance pollicy for trolls. The giant jerk
kind that just want attention. Generally the community ignores them. Then a
Game Assistant bans them. Then that company shows other companies about the
probl
I think, too, it is a fundamental issue of education, or lack of it, in the
U.S. For example, scientists say, "Well, yes, the global or ocean
temperatures are expected to increase 1.8 degrees Centigrade." First,
Americas don't understand this centigrade stuff. Second, they think, "
Well, if the
Nick is right. The uneducated (who also vote) do not understand, for
example, that climate events will continue to be more intense, if not more
frequent. And the ambiguity necessary to nonlinear models causes great
confusion. People need certainly and prediction and have been led to
believe scie
This is “our” fault. We have failed to articulate and distribute a language
that adequately relates changes in probabilities of events with changes in
particular events. We say that “harvey” was caused by global warming, but then
we bridle when senators carry snowballs into congress. Yes, thi
Yes, he’s really that stupid. And is manipulated by people who know better, but
whose short-term interests are best served by pretending global climate change
is a fiction.
> On Dec 29, 2017, at 12:23 AM, Jochen Fromm wrote:
>
> This is what Donald wrote on Twitter tonight:
> "In the East, it
Yes.
I suspect that climate change, including global warming, would require that
locally, in some locations, colder than normal conditions would occur.
Frank
Frank Wimberly
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
Phone (505) 670-9918
On Dec 29, 2017 1:23 AM, "Jochen Fromm" w
Alas the link was wrong, but Julie's article was very good. The real link
is _http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070804/mathtrek.asp_
(http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070804/mathtrek.asp)
cheers Paul Paryski
** Get a sneak peek of the all-new A
Some of you may be interested in the specific interventions suggested by the
United Nations Development Programme (my former employer) to adapt to
climate change: ABMs might be useful for some of these strategies.
_http://www.undp.org/gef/adaptation/climate_change/02d.htm_
(http://www.u
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