See the third "Read More" item on the NASA page cited above. ----------------------------------- Frank Wimberly
My memoir: https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly My scientific publications: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 Phone (505) 670-9918 On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:56 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > Friammers: > > > > Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The jury can > have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise we remain a hung > jury. > > > > So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea level rise, > disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening”? > > > > If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those > changes? > > > > I am polling the jury. > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > > > From NASA: > > https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/ > > > > ----------------------------------- > Frank Wimberly > > My memoir: > https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly > > My scientific publications: > https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 > > Phone (505) 670-9918 > > > > On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: > > What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point > and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references. > > > > Frank > > ----------------------------------- > Frank Wimberly > > My memoir: > https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly > > My scientific publications: > https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 > > Phone (505) 670-9918 > > > > On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Dave, > > I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a > challenge. > > What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if > somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate > change > and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of > engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because, > if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be > beyond > human reach. > > So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as > stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as > bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe > that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been > exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even > there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of > my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I > am talking about. Ugh! > > I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: > what > we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming, > is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed > in > Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate > supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year > the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from > one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden > knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of > your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in > my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short > as > 90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last > frost > dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a > very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from > something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50 > wasteplot. > > I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is > a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY. > I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last > ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that > anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do > agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole > idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less > the > same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing > more > or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation > would obliterate that possibility. > > If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we > are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I > could > scare the Living Crap out of you. > > The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it, > and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could > be > harvested for the long run. > > Happy New Year! > > Nick > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > thompnicks...@gmail.com > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM > To: friam@redfish.com > Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate > change. > > In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because > of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 > degrees > Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees > Fahrenheit by 2020. > > The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature > increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations > being 3-5 by the year 2020. > > The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100. > > The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end > of > domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020. > > The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree. > > Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate, > argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly > incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, > and > over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or > simply "circulation" motives. > > In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone > expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush? > > Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the > proposed > "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?" > > Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon > scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human > socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them? > > Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, > how > do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our > chances? > > davew > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
