And what treatment do you suggest, Marcus? On Thu, Jan 2, 2020 at 9:46 AM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote:
> Dave writes: > > < Even more scary are all the side effects as massive migrations that fail > to respect existing political boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in > nationalism and all the joys it will bring us.> > > Tom writes: > > < So perhaps "existing political boundaries" are no longer a viable or > rational concept? > > > *Side effects* is a good way to look at it. No drug that works doesn't > have side effects. Just have to ride them out and let the treatment do > its thing. > > Marcus > ------------------------------ > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Tom Johnson < > t...@jtjohnson.com> > *Sent:* Thursday, January 2, 2020 1:20 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > RE Dave West: So perhaps "existing political boundaries" are no longer a > viable or rational concept? (But I have yet to find a potential > alternative.) > Tom Johnson > > On Thu, Jan 2, 2020, 8:18 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Well we certainly agree on that. > > So should we put it before the Jury? > > N > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > thompnicks...@gmail.com > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:30 PM > To: friam@redfish.com > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > Nick, > > I am not overwhelmingly concerned with steady climate change per se; it is > the variability that is the real concern, as you point out. Even more scary > are all the side effects as massive migrations that fail to respect > existing > political boundaries ensue with a concomitant rise in nationalism and all > the joys it will bring us. > > davew > > > On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 7:09 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > > Dave, > > > > I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them > > as a challenge. > > > > What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if > > somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate > > change and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by > > what rules of engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that > > matter. Because, if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement > > would seem to be beyond human reach. > > > > So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as > > stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not > > as bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to > > believe that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel > > I have been exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial > > melting. But even there, I would be hard pressed to match your > > specific references to any of my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, > > I disagree, but I don't know what I am talking about. Ugh! > > > > I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: > > what we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term > > climate warming, is increases in year-to-year climate variability. > > You can grow rape seed in Canada and maize in the US, and as the > > climate alters, the bands of climate supporting these two crops will > > move north. But what happens if one year the climate demands one crop > > and the next the other? And the switch from one to the other is > > entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden knows that only > > two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of your garden: > > first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in my > > garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short > > as 90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had > > last frost dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It > > would take a very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn > > my garden from something that could support life for a year in New > England > into a 30 x 50 wasteplot. > > > > I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the > > Holocene, is a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in > climate VARIABILITY. > > I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the > > last ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent > > on that anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to > > do agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. > > The whole idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make > > more or less the same kind of living by staying more or less in the > > same place and doing more or less the same thing. A return to > > Pleistocene year-to-year variation would obliterate that possibility. > > > > If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global > > Warming-- we are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by > > God, I think I could scare the Living Crap out of you. > > > > The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do > > it, and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's > > value could be harvested for the long run. > > > > Happy New Year! > > > > Nick > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University > > thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West > > Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM > > To: friam@redfish.com > > Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > > > Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of > climate > > change. > > > > In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that > because > > of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 > degrees > > Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 > degrees > > Fahrenheit by 2020. > > > > The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature > > increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations > > being 3-5 by the year 2020. > > > > The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100. > > > > The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end > of > > domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020. > > > > The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree. > > > > Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate, > > argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly > > incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, > and > > over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or > > simply "circulation" motives. > > > > In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar > everyone > > expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush? > > > > Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the > proposed > > "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?" > > > > Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to > carbon > > scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human > > socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them? > > > > Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, > how > > do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our > > chances? > > > > davew > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe > > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA merlelefk...@gmail.com <merlelef...@gmail.com> mobile: (303) 859-5609 skype: merle.lelfkoff2 twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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