Maybe I do not appreciate fully how the models have evolved since 1990. I have studied the reports and even for me it's it'd very complicated. Do you mind giving me a simple explanation of what you are referring to?
On 29 December 2017 at 21:28, uǝlƃ ☣ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: > I agree that admitting one's mistakes and specifying (honest) uncertainty > lends credibility. But, as Eric says in his recent post, expressions of > uncertainty can be abused, as well. In this regard, scientists face a very > difficult dilemma. > > It's interesting to consider a topic just as controversial to scientists, > but opaque to the laity: the big bang and inflation. I think it's pretty > clear there was no big bang, at least not as naively conceived. When one > cosmologist talks to another, they probably freely admit that. But when a > cosmologist talks to a regular person, of course there was a big bang. > > So, it's easy to see why the IPCC would hesitate to proclaim their > uncertainty very loudly. Their conclusions could easily be lost. > > But more to your point, yes, their predictions from 1990 were bound to be > wrong to some extent (as are all predictions). Their new predictions will > be wrong, too. And it's good for everyone to know the full dimension of > the predictions. However, what you didn't mention was the extent to which > the models have *evolved* from 1990 to 2014 (and 2014 to today). What we > need is a fuller understanding of the modeling workflow. All models are > iteratively constructed. Do you know how the models have evolved from 1990 > to today? > > > On 12/29/2017 11:16 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: > > In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3 > degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of > 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years. > > > > Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would > give them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties. > > > -- > ☣ uǝlƃ > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
