On Tue, Nov 24, 2009 at 23:58, Nick Wedd <n...@maproom.co.uk> wrote:
> Vlad Dumitrescu <vladd...@gmail.com> writes
>> Please try to explain why the "hahn calculation" isn't working in a
>> normal game so as to ensure a win. I'm talking about strong human
>> players.
>
> Are you talking about omniscient players?  If not, I have already answered:
>
>> Suppose my attempts to read the game tell me "If I seal off my
>> territory at A, I will win by 5 points.  If instead I invade at
>> B, then 70% of the time I will win by 25 points, 30% of the time
>> I will lose by 5 points".
>
>> If I am playing Go, I will prefer A.  If I am playing bang neki,
>> [or Hahn scoring] I will prefer B.

Hi Nick,

I'm not talking about omniscient players. My problem with your answer
above is that "70% of the time I will win by 25 points" contains
implicit assumptions, which affect the exact numbers and thus the
choice one would make.

How is the 70% calculated? Against whom? The ratio will be different
against someone 3 stones stronger, against someone of my strength or
someone three stones weaker. Do the playlines leading to a 25 points
win involve a stupid mistake that the opponent must make, or are they
about luring him gently in a non-optimal position? Or is it a big
fight that is involved, I can't read it but feel 70% confident I can
win it?

Opponent modeling will also play a role and then the percentage can't
even be computed anymore, the player has to guess, to gamble. It is
here that one's personality comes to play. "This guy doesn't like to
invade deep, let's expand this moyo". "That guy is a fierce fighter,
better to play it safe".

Personally, I would almost always play A in a tournament situation (or
with money involved). In a Hahn tournament, it depends on the overall
situation, if a small win in this game isn't enough then I must try B
if I want to win. If it's for fun, then exploring B is much more
interesting and offers more opportunity to learning.

best regards,
Vlad
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