And it went from winter of 1917 through summer in 1918 with summer 1917
almost dying away due to better results in warm weather than Covid-19.
The burst back in 1918 was apparently pretty nasty..
On 4/20/20 4:51 PM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
Just look at the Spanish flu curves. They had no vaccine. They
conquered it by quarantine and social distancing.
*From:* Robert
*Sent:* Monday, April 20, 2020 5:37 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Then you don't understand social distancing and herd immunity. This
is just moving the infection rate out into the future spread over a
much longer range. We still get infected to 70-80% before herd
immunity kicks in about 2-3 months _before_ the current schedule of
vaccine availability. 1/2 over will be 3-4 months from now. Now if
someone comes out with a vaccine, different ball game. Oh and the
ebola anti-viral... Gilead is testing with the best case possible
patients. And results so far don't show anything better with those
cases than leaving the patients alone. Sounds like Gilead is doing
everything they can to make it sound like their stuff is a winner
without actually proving it...
On 4/20/20 8:44 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
I look at the curve and say we are half over.
*From:* Ken Hohhof
*Sent:* Monday, April 20, 2020 9:33 AM
*To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group'
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
That probably is (modestly) good news. But how anyone can look at
that curve and say it’s over, I don’t know. That curve is probably
dominated by the early hit densely populated areas like New York,
where they are still only slightly off the peak death rate and are
still piling bodies in refrigerated trucks at hospitals. And the
nursing homes and prisons. It hasn’t even begun to sweep over the
less dense areas with no hospitals, that will be the long tail of the
curve. Then we find out if we screwed up and brought a big second wave.
Very worrisome is the healthcare workers getting infected and dying,
dealing with patients dying on every shift, worrying about infecting
their families. If this is still coming in waves 1-2 years from now,
we aren’t going to have any doctors and nurses. Who would do that
job long term, even if they don’t get sick and die? As various
people have pointed out, this may be a war, but even soldiers aren’t
asked to put their family’s lives at risk.
*From:* AF mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com *On Behalf Of *ch...@wbmfg.com
*Sent:* Monday, April 20, 2020 10:21 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Looks a bit Gaussian to me. I hope...
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