Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism

Mon, 20 Apr 2020 09:10:00 -0700

I think fall is overly optimistic. That would barely be enough to get through early testing. Early 2021 is my bet for the earliest availability of an actual vaccine.


bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 9:05 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
Hopefully we will have a vaccine by fall.  Hopefully they will have sorted out what treatments work by July.  Hopefully lotsa good testing by June.
But baseball seems to be totally f*cked.  Hopefully not college football too...
 
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 9:49 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
 
I think double or even triple bumps are inevitable....  without China-level lock-downs or vaccines.

From: ch...@wbmfg.com
To: "AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group" <af@af.afmug.com>
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 10:44:50 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism

Unless we relax and get a double bump. 
 
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 9:44 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
 
I look at the curve and say we are half over. 
 
From: Ken Hohhof
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 9:33 AM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
 

That probably is (modestly) good news.  But how anyone can look at that curve and say it’s over, I don’t know.  That curve is probably dominated by the early hit densely populated areas like New York, where they are still only slightly off the peak death rate and are still piling bodies in refrigerated trucks at hospitals.  And the nursing homes and prisons.  It hasn’t even begun to sweep over the less dense areas with no hospitals, that will be the long tail of the curve.  Then we find out if we screwed up and brought a big second wave.

 

Very worrisome is the healthcare workers getting infected and dying, dealing with patients dying on every shift, worrying about infecting their families.  If this is still coming in waves 1-2 years from now, we aren’t going to have any doctors and nurses.  Who would do that job long term, even if they don’t get sick and die?  As various people have pointed out, this may be a war, but even soldiers aren’t asked to put their family’s lives at risk.

 

 

From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of ch...@wbmfg.com
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2020 10:21 AM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism

 

Looks a bit Gaussian to me.  I hope...

 

image

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