Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-04 Thread Mark Smith
On Wed, 02 Feb 2011 06:25:18 +0900 Randy Bush wrote: > > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg > > > > This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the > > predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy > > (whatever that policy may be), and the relativ

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Owen DeLong
o.uk] >>> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM >>> To: nanog@nanog.org >>> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph >>> >>> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: >>>> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain wrote: >>&g

RE: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Tony Hain
> -Original Message- > From: Richard Barnes [mailto:richard.bar...@gmail.com] > Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:44 AM > To: Tony Hain > Cc: Vincent Hoffman; nanog@nanog.org > Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph > > Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lin

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Richard Barnes
ncent Hoffman [mailto:jh...@unsane.co.uk] >> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM >> To: nanog@nanog.org >> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph >> >> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: >> > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain wrote:

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Ken Chase
On Wed, Feb 02, 2011 at 10:11:48AM -0800, Tony Hain said: >For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. >http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg >http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg 13:13 < dec0de> africa is where it's at 13:15 < mo

RE: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Tony Hain
> -Original Message- > From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jh...@unsane.co.uk] > Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM > To: nanog@nanog.org > Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph > > On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: > > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM,

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Vincent Hoffman
On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain wrote: >> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my >> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months >> and the idea of a 50% probability that thei

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Matthew Petach
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain wrote: > So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my > head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months > and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. > 2011", here are

RE: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Tony Hain
hs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf Tony > -Original Message- > From: Geoff Huston [mailto:g...@apnic.net] > Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:12 PM > To: Randy Bush > Cc: NANOG Operators&

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-02 Thread Tore Anderson
* Geoff Huston > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg Ohh, very nice, Geoff! Thank you! A few questions, though: 1) The graph shows the most probable APNIC depletion date to be in July. However your site at says 25-Sep-2011. What's the reason for this discrepancy?

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Randy Bush
> the prboability distribution with the error bars is a pretty useful > tool to throw over the wall to management so that they know how long > they have to get their affairs in order. i suspect it's more like most folk should save a gif so they can say "i warned you," when they need a bunch of mon

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Joel Jaeggli
On 2/1/11 1:08 PM, Randy Bush wrote: >> FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for >> /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last >> to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues. > > this is not the murdoch press or fox news.

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Rubens Kuhl
On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote: > > On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > >> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice >> graphs any more.  might we have one last one for the turnstiles?  :-)/2 >> >> and would you mind doing the curves now

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Scott Weeks
--- towns...@cisco.com wrote: From: Mark Townsley On Feb 1, 2011, at 9:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote: > On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: >> graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 >> >> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? >

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Mark Townsley
On Feb 1, 2011, at 9:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote: > > On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > >> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice >> graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 >> >> and would you mind doing the curves now

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Randy Bush
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg > > This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the > predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy > (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the > event will occur in that particular mont

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Benson Schliesser
On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:08 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > >> Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all >> be flat before the end of the year? > > we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat > supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we l

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Randy Bush
> FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for > /24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last > to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues. this is not the murdoch press or fox news. i very much doubt chaos will ensue. our job

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Geoff Huston
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 > > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? > gotta give us all something to

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Arturo Servin
; > >> -Original Message- >> From: Randy Bush [mailto:ra...@psg.com] >> Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:02 AM >> To: Geoff Huston >> Cc: NANOG Operators' Group >> Subject: ipv4's last graph >> >> with the iana free pool

RE: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Tony Hain
. Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the end of the year? Tony > -Original Message- > From: Randy Bush [mailto:ra...@psg.com] > Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:02 AM > To: Geoff Huston > Cc: NANOG Operators' Grou

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Raymond Macharia
All manner of dooms day-like stories and headlines tomorrow..I dare predict :-) http://www.cio.co.ke/Top-Stories/address-allocation-kicks-off-ipv4-endgame.html Raymond Macharia On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 2:31 PM, Iljitsch van Beijnum wrote: > On 1 feb 2011, at 9:02, Randy Bush wrote: > > > with t

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Iljitsch van Beijnum
On 1 feb 2011, at 9:02, Randy Bush wrote: > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 Enjoy this while it lasts then: http://www.bgpexpert.com/ianaglobalpool2.php

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread bmanning
On Tue, Feb 01, 2011 at 04:10:59PM +0800, Adrian Chadd wrote: > On Tue, Feb 01, 2011, Randy Bush wrote: > > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice > > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 > > > > and would you mind doing the curve

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Antonio Querubin
On Tue, 1 Feb 2011, Adrian Chadd wrote: I think having a graph that reached full and stays there will be quite powerful. :) Headline material - IPv4 flatlines ... the world as we know it will come to an end :) Antonio Querubin e-mail/xmpp: t...@lava.net

Re: ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Adrian Chadd
On Tue, Feb 01, 2011, Randy Bush wrote: > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 > > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? > gotta give us all something to repeat

ipv4's last graph

2011-02-01 Thread Randy Bush
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2 and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos. randy