Currently there is no policy in ARIN that would do that short of the last /10, so, the line should change at 1/4 of the last /8.
Owen On Feb 2, 2011, at 10:43 AM, Richard Barnes wrote: > Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level > out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out" > policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving > at 1 /8 left as depletion. > > Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies? > > [1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10> > [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1> > [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html> > > > > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-i...@tndh.net> wrote: >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jh...@unsane.co.uk] >>> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM >>> To: nanog@nanog.org >>> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph >>> >>> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: >>>> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-i...@tndh.net> wrote: >>>>> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't >>> get my >>>>> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 >>> months >>>>> and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs >>> Aug. >>>>> 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. >>>>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf >>>>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf >>>>> >>>>> Tony >>>> Two things: >>>> >>>> 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple >>>> image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ >>> Not wishing to advertise google but >>> >>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- >>> rir-pools.pdf >>> and >>> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- >>> rir-pools-zoom.pdf >>> >>> >>> works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer >> >> For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg >> >> >>> >>> Vince >>> >>> >>> >>>> 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale >>>> of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of >>>> pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request? >> >> I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for >> scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' >> policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something >> readable. >> >> >>>> >>>> But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which >>>> is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^; >> >> Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0 >> >> >>>> >>>> Matt >> >> >> >>
