Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out" policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving at 1 /8 left as depletion.
Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies? [1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10> [2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1> [3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html> On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Tony Hain <alh-i...@tndh.net> wrote: >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jh...@unsane.co.uk] >> Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM >> To: nanog@nanog.org >> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph >> >> On 02/02/2011 17:22, Matthew Petach wrote: >> > On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 9:01 AM, Tony Hain <alh-i...@tndh.net> wrote: >> >> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't >> get my >> >> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 >> months >> >> and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs >> Aug. >> >> 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. >> >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf >> >> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf >> >> >> >> Tony >> > Two things: >> > >> > 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple >> > image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :/ >> Not wishing to advertise google but >> >> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- >> rir-pools.pdf >> and >> http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4- >> rir-pools-zoom.pdf >> >> >> works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer > > For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site. > http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg > http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg > > >> >> Vince >> >> >> >> > 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale >> > of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of >> > pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request? > > I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for > scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation' > policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something > readable. > > >> > >> > But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which >> > is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^; > > Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0 > > >> > >> > Matt > > > >
