So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug. 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider. http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony > -----Original Message----- > From: Geoff Huston [mailto:g...@apnic.net] > Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:12 PM > To: Randy Bush > Cc: NANOG Operators' Group > Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph > > > On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote: > > > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those > nice > > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :- > )/2 > > > > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs? > > gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in > presos. > > but of course. > > http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg > > This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the > predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy > (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the > event will occur in that particular month. > > The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up > across the regions and each region will work from its local address > pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region > gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their > demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not > possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond > the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage > looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for > the other RIRs are highly uncertain. > > Geoff
