Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Ben Cannon
A 100/100 enterprise connection can easily support hundreds of desktop users if not more. It’s a lot of bandwidth even today. -Ben > On Apr 2, 2019, at 10:35 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote: > >> On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Paul Nash wrote: >> >> FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Mikael Abrahamsson
On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Paul Nash wrote: FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix. I have had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years. I have been planning to bump them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic justification. I know FTTH footprints

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Tom Ammon
On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 2:20 PM Josh Luthman wrote: > We have GB/mo figures for our customers for every month for the last ~10 > years. Is there some simple figure you're looking for? I can tell you off > hand that I remember we had accounts doing ~15 GB/mo and now we've got 1500 > GB/mo at simi

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Paul Nash
Mixed residential (ages 25 - 75, 1 - 6 people per unit), group who worked together to keep costs down. Works well for them. Friday nights we get to about 85% utilization (Netflix), other than that, usually sits between 25 - 45% paul > On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:44 PM, Jared Mauch wrote: >

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Jared Mauch
I would say this is perhaps atypical but may depend on the customer type(s). If they’re residential and use OTT data then sure. If it’s SMB you’re likely in better shape. - Jared > On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:21 PM, Paul Nash wrote: > > FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into T

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Paul Nash
FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix. I have had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years. I have been planning to bump them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic justification. paul > On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANO

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Louie Lee via NANOG
Certainly. Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth is quite another. And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT stre

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Louie Lee via NANOG
+1 Also on this. >From my viewpoint, the game is roughly the same for the last 20+ years. You might want to validate that your per-customer bandwidth use across your markets is roughly the same for the same service/speeds/product. If you have that data over time, then you can extrapolate what each

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Jared Mauch
> On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie wrote: > > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a > broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do some > very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with more > math

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread jim deleskie
Louie, Its almost like us old guys knew something, and did know everything back then, the more things have changed the more that they have stayed the same :) -jim On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 3:52 PM Louie Lee wrote: > +1 Also on this. > > From my viewpoint, the game is roughly the same for the l

Google AS15169 trace route request

2019-04-02 Thread Tom Connolly via NANOG
Hello all, If there’s someone on the Google (AS15169) network, preferably in San Jose or Denver area, could you please send me a trace route to the following IP: 2600:1010:b062:616f:f0da:421c:c752:2780 Off-list would be great, we are trying to identify the return path for traffic being sourced

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Robert M. Enger
An article was published recently that discusses the possible impact of Cloud-based gaming on last-mile capacity requirements, as well as external connections. The author suggests that decentralized video services won't be the only big user of last-mile capacity. https://medium.com/@rudolfvande

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread jim deleskie
+1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the methods

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Mikael Abrahamsson
On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Tom Ammon wrote: Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are going to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks such as QUIC and TCP BBR? I don't see how QUIC

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Josh Luthman
We have GB/mo figures for our customers for every month for the last ~10 years. Is there some simple figure you're looking for? I can tell you off hand that I remember we had accounts doing ~15 GB/mo and now we've got 1500 GB/mo at similar rates per month. Josh Luthman Office: 937-552-2340 Direc

RE: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Aaron Gould
“…especially in the face of transport tweaks such as QUIC and TCP BBR? “ Do these “quic and tcp bbr” change bandwidth utilization as we’ve know it for years ? -Aaron

RE: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Aaron Gould
We use trendline/95% trendline that’s built into a lot of graphing tools… solarwinds, I think even cdn cache portals have trendlines… forecasts, etc. My boss might use other growth percentages gleaned from previous years… but yeah, like another person mentioned, the more history you have the b

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Scott Weeks
:: How do people model and try to project residential :: subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do :: you base it primarily on historical data? -- Yes, if you have a lot of quality data that goes far back in the past you can make

Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Ben Cannon
Residential whatnow? Sorry, to be honest, there really isn’t any. I suppose if one is buying lit services, this is important to model. But an *incredibly* huge residential network can be served by a single basic 10/40g backbone connection or two. And if you own the glass it’s trivial to s

Re: request for help: 192.139.135.0/24

2019-04-02 Thread Job Snijders
Ack for NTT On Mon, Apr 1, 2019 at 21:36 Christopher Morrow wrote: > (from offline chat and pokery) > > It looks like 701/1239/3356 are permitting 4837 to announce this prefix > because: > $ whois -h whois.radb.net 192.139.135.0 > route: 192.139.135.0/24 > descr: managedway company > o

modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

2019-04-02 Thread Tom Ammon
How do people model and try to project residential subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do you base it primarily on historical data? Are there more sophisticated approaches that you use to figure out how much backbone bandwidth you need to build to keep your eyeballs happy? Netflow for hi

Re: request for help: 192.139.135.0/24

2019-04-02 Thread Smith, Courtney
Any luck reaching AS4837? route-views>show ip bgp 192.139.135.0/24 longer-prefixes BGP table version is 103101215, local router ID is 128.223.51.103 Status codes: s suppressed, d damped, h history, * valid, > best, i - internal, r RIB-failure, S Stale, m multipath, b backup-path, f