Certainly. Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth is quite another.
And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network analysis. Louie Google Fiber. On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <ja...@puck.nether.net> wrote: > > > > On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deles...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for > a broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do > some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with > more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the > methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per > sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The > "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are > all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the > question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is > nearing straight up :) > > > I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate > scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers. > > The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900. You get > different population scale and average usage. > > I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth > internet usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G > connection you can support 500-800 subscribers these days. Ideally you can > get a 10G link for a reasonable price. Your scale looks different as well > as you can work with “the content guys” once you get far enough. > > Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday. > > - Jared
