I would say this is perhaps atypical but may depend on the customer type(s).

If they’re residential and use OTT data then sure.  If it’s SMB you’re likely 
in better shape.

- Jared


> On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:21 PM, Paul Nash <p...@nashnetworks.ca> wrote:
> 
> FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix.  I have 
> had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years.  I have been planning to bump 
> them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic 
> justification.
> 
>       paul
> 
> 
>> On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> wrote:
>> 
>> Certainly.
>> 
>> Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, 
>> edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth 
>> is quite another.
>> 
>> And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the 
>> nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on 
>> home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network 
>> analysis.
>> 
>> Louie
>> Google Fiber.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <ja...@puck.nether.net> wrote:
>> 
>> 
>>> On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deles...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> 
>>> +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a 
>>> broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do 
>>> some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with 
>>> more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the 
>>> methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per 
>>> sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The 
>>> "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are 
>>> all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the 
>>> question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is 
>>> nearing straight up :)
>> 
>> 
>> I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate 
>> scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers.
>> 
>> The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900.  You get 
>> different population scale and average usage.
>> 
>> I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet 
>> usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G connection you 
>> can support 500-800 subscribers these days.  Ideally you can get a 10G link 
>> for a reasonable price.  Your scale looks different as well as you can work 
>> with “the content guys” once you get far enough.
>> 
>> Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.
>> 
>> - Jared

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