I would say this is perhaps atypical but may depend on the customer type(s).
If they’re residential and use OTT data then sure. If it’s SMB you’re likely in better shape. - Jared > On Apr 2, 2019, at 5:21 PM, Paul Nash <p...@nashnetworks.ca> wrote: > > FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix. I have > had no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years. I have been planning to bump > them to 1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic > justification. > > paul > > >> On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog@nanog.org> wrote: >> >> Certainly. >> >> Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone, >> edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth >> is quite another. >> >> And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the >> nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on >> home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network >> analysis. >> >> Louie >> Google Fiber. >> >> >> >> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <ja...@puck.nether.net> wrote: >> >> >>> On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deles...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>> +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a >>> broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do >>> some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with >>> more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the >>> methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per >>> sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The >>> "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are >>> all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the >>> question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is >>> nearing straight up :) >> >> >> I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate >> scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers. >> >> The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900. You get >> different population scale and average usage. >> >> I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet >> usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G connection you >> can support 500-800 subscribers these days. Ideally you can get a 10G link >> for a reasonable price. Your scale looks different as well as you can work >> with “the content guys” once you get far enough. >> >> Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday. >> >> - Jared
