Louie, Its almost like us old guys knew something, and did know everything back then, the more things have changed the more that they have stayed the same :)
-jim On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 3:52 PM Louie Lee <lou...@google.com> wrote: > +1 Also on this. > > From my viewpoint, the game is roughly the same for the last 20+ years. > You might want to validate that your per-customer bandwidth use across your > markets is roughly the same for the same service/speeds/product. If you > have that data over time, then you can extrapolate what each market's > bandwidth use would be when you lay on a customer growth forecast. > > But for something that's simpler and actionable now, yeah, just make sure > that your upstream and peering(!!) links are not congested. I agree that > the 50-75% is a good target not only for the lead time to bring up more > capacity, but also to allow for spikes in traffic for various events > throughout the year. > > Louie > Google Fiber > > > On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 11:36 AM jim deleskie <deles...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a >> broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do >> some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with >> more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the >> methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per >> sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The >> "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are >> all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the >> question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is >> nearing straight up :) >> >> -jim >> >> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 3:26 PM Mikael Abrahamsson <swm...@swm.pp.se> >> wrote: >> >>> On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Tom Ammon wrote: >>> >>> > Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really >>> > asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are >>> going >>> > to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks >>> > such as QUIC and TCP BBR? >>> >>> I don't see how QUIC and BBR is going to change how much bandwidth is >>> flowing. >>> >>> If you want to make your eyeballs happy then make sure you're not >>> congesting your upstream links. Aim for max 50-75% utilization in 5 >>> minute >>> average at peak hour (graph by polling interface counters every 5 >>> minutes). Depending on your growth curve you might need to initiate >>> upgrades to make sure they're complete before utilization hits 75%. >>> >>> If you have thousands of users then typically just look at the >>> statistics >>> per user and extrapolate. I don't believe this has fundamentally changed >>> in the past 20 years, this is still best common practice. >>> >>> If you go into the game of running your links full parts of the day then >>> you're into the game of trying to figure out QoE values which might mean >>> you spend more time doing that than the upgrade would cost. >>> >>> -- >>> Mikael Abrahamsson email: swm...@swm.pp.se >>> >>
