Yes. The model need not be structurally analogous to the referent. And the proof is in the pudding. If your estimator works better than those around you, as Eric seems to say, your cup's plenty full. But for me, there's a kind of frustration. I have friends who skillfully use filter bubbles. They may still, sporadically, have to interact in some relatively deep way with some outsider who doesn't have access to the lessons a failed prediction can teach. And they have coping mechanisms for those interactions (e.g. a Peter Principle boss or co-author). For some reason, I don't have the facility with the filter bubble. Or maybe I'm addicted to chaos <https://youtu.be/ntrMqThnzTU?si=pzlZj0OFd_rDjnf1>.
But there's still something there. Art like The Curse <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Curse_(American_TV_series)> seem like genius to me. They're little more than a derivation from things like Jackass <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackass_(franchise)>. But these things dig at something deep. Some of us, for whatever reason, experience empathy (which I'll define as "experiencing another's feelings", where feelings are higher order emotions). This trait seems distinct from mentalizing (modeling another's mind). I'm pretty good at mentalizing, say, a Trump supporter. I don't have empathy for the Trump supporters I've met, though. And that seems important. It suggests to me that my estimator *could* be more accurate and efficient if I could somehow feel what they feel, especially if I could turn it on and off at will. On 10/16/24 11:53, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I take the asocial view: Reliable, rapidly retargetable prediction methods are all that matter. Can one anticipate what will happen in the world and get ahead of it? With that capability, there is no need to use truth as a cudgel. The power the prediction methods provide are a deeper source of power. Sure, the truths can be high order stabilities. Who cares?
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