Bryon, These are great questions!
> -----Original Message----- > From: Bryon Daly [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Tuesday, March 02, 2004 12:59 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: RE: Race to the Bottom > > > >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > >I have to side against the Fool in this case. His point was that his > >job > >was > >threatened by the outsourcing scourge. I work in IT, and I > do not see the > >threat. But then I am an analyst and not principally a > programmer. It is > >the > > I don't know any good solutions, but I am concerned about the problem. I am too for that matter - but for different reasons. > > >heads down programmers, web developers, and phone support > that is being > >threatened by outsourcing. It is clear that programming is > difficult, > >but its rather technical work (like fabrication or > assembly), meaning > >that large scale innovation is no > > Most factory workers do not have a 4 year college degree or > need one to do > their job. I do not as well, nor do many of the people I work with. I did my time working the phones, desktop support, system administration, etc. I am a blue-collar High tech worker. My college background was a bit of medical training. > > Any way, for your industry, maybe you are correct, but not > all programming > is like that, and it's not just the rote "technician" stuff > that's getting > transferred offshore: Example: > A few years back, I was offered a software job at GE Medical > Systems out > near Milwaukee. This division designs/builds stuff like MRI > and CAT scan > equipment. They had a split set up, using programmers in > India for some of > the system coding, along with some programmers in Milwaukee. > I can assure > you that though the software architecture was chiefly done in > the US, the > work the Indian programmers were doing was not by any means > "fabrication/assembly" work, it was real engineering work. I am sure of that. They are pretty good at it. However, the Specs for the equipment came from the U.S. The invisioning was on this side of the pond. The solution is always tough but academic. > > >longer driven by the programmers. It is the architects and analysts > >that provide the innovation. What has to happen is these same > >programmers need to shift their careers to analysis. > > Easy to say, but how many positions are available for analysts and > architects, > versus how many programmer jobs are open to being displaced? > I'm guessing there's a 1:10 to 1:20 ratio of > analysts/architects to programmers. I can only speak for what I know. At Freightliner, There is a 50/50 ration between Analysts and programmers. However, both groups together only represent about 20% of the organization. Operational support surpasses the consultative support side. Developers are a small minority of the IT workers and the analysts are matched evenly. The rest of the programming is outsourced, but this is only about 10% of the total work performed by IT. In our business, Analysis is the bottleneck. We have money to spend on development, but we can't get the analysis done fast enough. We are having a hard time finding good analysts. > > What do you suggest the other 9-19 programmers do? > > Are the jobs lost overseas being replaced at all by alternate, > equivalent-quality > jobs? If not, who'd going to be able to buy all those cheap > DVD players and TV's? Those jobs represent infrastructure, someone needs to sell them software, hardware and telecommunications. That comes from the U.S. Only the labor is cheap. They pay the same as the U.S. for the infrastructure. That infrastructure comes from the U.S. > > >No off-shore worker can provide business requirements or delve deep > >into legacy systems to solve business problems. The focus of IT is > >business. This fundamental belief is lost with those who are > bothered > >by outsourcing. The days are gone of the Mainframe > programmer/analyst, > >who did it all with respect to creating mainframe apps. No > one person > >can write a large program any more. The technology is too > >sophisticated, and the business requirements are too massive for one > >person. The programming has become the easy part of the technical > >solution. It's the analysis of determining the business > behind the bits > >that's important. > > So your vision is companies consisting of small groups of > management and > lead > analysts/architects, while all the actual body of technical > work is done > offshore? It's not my vision. I am only adapting to the changing tide. Its not so much the technical work as much as it is the time intensive work. Development is hard, but tangable. Requirements translates into solutions. Solutions take time. As I said before, we are struggling to find developers with legacy knowledge. We are forced to look elsewhere because the workforce is not there. > > And then when the offshore developers learn the business > better, and canned software packages simplify the analysis > tasks, the analyst jobs can be moved offshore, too, right? They can only learn the business by being here, and that makes them contributors to our economy. Freightliner is not about to move a data center to a third world to save money. Its too costly and risky. > > >And what about those little manuals that come with most > Asian computer > >components. Ever read one that did not have some significant English > >spelling or syntax error? We are the Masters of English. It is this > >mastery that will keep us on top. > > Keep a small select few on top, perhaps. My (high-tech) > company of about 800 people currently has two tech writers on > staff, and that is only part of > their > role. Tech writing is not going to save many people's jobs. I agree. However, we deliver "deliverables" to other countries in English. As an analyst, I create documents every day. Its not just about end-user documentation. My point is that a major advantage is that we are able to convert our intellectual capital into "deliverables", feed this into a machine that produces products or cost savings for pennies on the dollar. > > >And about those outsourcing companies... Rumor has it that > the Indians > >are now not satisfied with the rates being offered by American > >companies for the work, so they are now doing offshore > outsourcing to > >countries like Russia and Viet Nam. This tells me that the American > >programmer is going the way of > >the punch card operator, and that things will shift world-wide. > > Back when people started worrying about the loss of US blue-collar, > manufacturing > jobs overseas, the standard reply was that we needed to > transistion to a > high-tech > economy, and we needed to prepare/retrain workers to deal with it and > transition over. That has happened. The trend of change is quicker now with globalization. It will continue to happen. Strangely, we are having a hard time finding qualified people for the top paying positions at Freightliner. That was not the case 9 months ago. The pool of intellectual talent in the U.S. is drying up. The jobs are here. We are struggling to find people who want to analyis at a contracted billing rate 75-100$/hr. Explain that?!??!?!! Freightliner was penalized taxwise last year because they could not spend its IT budget fast enough. How's that for a business problem! You try spending 30 million in 3 months. We were in a total panic. Analysis was the bottleneck. We got developers at $25/hr. We can outsource for much less. But we can't spend money until the paperwork is done, and we can't find people to the work? You tell me why developers don't want to do analysis for double the pay? I don't know.... > > Now, high-tech, white collar jobs are also migrating away. > Where are the > replacement jobs going to come from? They can't all become > analysts and > architects. I don't agree with this. If they can write code, which is an expression of ideas, they can do analysis - which is the analysis of ideas. I spend 70% of my day looking over source code, log files, and reports to determine how something works - to understand the nature of the system. Developers will now have to realize they can no longer be pure coders - they need to do the other work they were taught in college - writing, math, accounting, statistics, etc. > > >I hear stories about phone support people off-shore, who > place marbles > >in their mouth while speaking to straighten out their accents. Phone > >support people here complain if they have to be nice to > customers. How > >hungry are you to do this job? Try putting a marble in your > mouth the > >next time you put a headset on. This is what you are up > against. Those > >foreign workers are hungrier than you, and they are kicking > your ass! I > >don't think Americans are wanting to compete, they just want to > >complain about foreigners taking their jobs, asking for special > >protections so they can maintain their lazy lifestyle > > Compete how? Have you ever worked on a tech support line? They are measured by how fast they can blow off customers, not how technically savvy they are. Managers are measured on how much crap they can patiently take from mad customers. Technical phone support staff who are Americans are paid to do support by managing a phone queue, not managing customers. Its because they don't really provide tech support that it can be moved overseas. > > US workers are up against workers that make a quarter or > fifth (or less!) > the hourly > rate US workers do. I think actually much less. More like $3-25 a day - closer to an eighth in most cases. Maybe you'd consider that fat and lazy, > but those same wages here would leave someone squarely at the > poverty level. I have talked to some of these oursourcers. People beg them for work at these wages. Remember that what is poverty level here is wealth there. But lets make the comparision. A day's worth of food in India costs pennies. A day's worth of food in the U.S. cost Dollars. Its all relative. > > In grad school in 1992, one of my fellow students, from > India, worked as an > engineer > there for several years after getting her B.S.EE before > coming to the US. > She told me that > she was getting paid more money working as a part-time > teaching assistant > (10 hrs/week, > approx $8-10k/year) than she got paid as a full-time engineer > in India. So > again, I ask, if the engineering jobs are moving there, how > do US engineers > compete? They can't.... That's my point. So you move on to something you can compete with them on. > > >I do hope they see the writing on the wall. Its time to move on. > > Move on to what? > > Again, I don't have any answers, but I am concerned, and I'm > not buying > arguments > about whining "lazy Americans" just needing to "compete harder". Hehehe... Americans are anything but lazy. Americans kick ass. The fire is not there yet to get them motivated. If I was to state my position on how to solve the problem, I think we are already on the way. I see it in the schools, in business, and in American culture. Analysis is another word for criticism. This is what we do best. The new age is coming. Nerd From Hell > > _________________________________________________________________ > Fast. Reliable. Get MSN 9 Dial-up - 3 months for the price of 1! > (Limited-time Offer) > http://click.atdmt.com/AVE/go/onm00200361ave/d> irect/01/ > > > _______________________________________________ > http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
