Correction, "The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic", where "that" refers to your $80,000,000 number. The real numbers aren't nearly *that* optimistic. They're in the range of $20,000,000 or so for all pledges combined throughout the next month.
On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com> wrote: > If you look at my graph, the average is significantly skewed by the $600 > perk. The average slope for the 2nd half of the graph is $605.43 per 90 > seconds. The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic, which fits with > what I said in my earlier emails. > > > On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:13 AM, Daniel Clem <clem11...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> If that trend holds there will be a total of almost 80,000,000. Obviously >> it will have ups and downs, but even half that average would reach the >> goal. Will re-investigate GSM's signal strength in my area, as well as data >> plans. >> >> >> Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>> The only number I'm writing down is the total funding amount so far at >>> each interval, I'm not writing anything down about individual users. I feel >>> like anything more than just looking at the total would be kind of sketchy. >>> I ran some analysis and out of all of the 90 second periods, the most >>> amount of contribution that the project received was $18,432 total during >>> one 90 second interval. The average so far has been about $2,607 per 90 >>> second interval. >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:56 AM, Omar B. <estela...@hotmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> Nice, thx for recording the data and the graph. >>>> >>>> did you get any data on individuals who may had purchased multiple >>>> times consecutively? , how many each individual got ? >>>> >>>> I Think indiegogo only lets you select one perk even if you add more >>>> cash to the amount. >>>> >>>> So it wouldn't be a surprise if some made multiple purchases >>>> consecutively. >>>> >>>> Anyway this will be a crucial week, hope their double edge and other >>>> perks get mass acceptance. >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> From: coder...@gmail.com >>>> Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0500 >>>> >>>> Subject: Re: [Ubuntu-phone] Ubuntu Edge (the Ubuntu handset) >>>> To: estela...@hotmail.com >>>> CC: ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>> >>>> >>>> Actually, this will probably help. This is the amount of funding the >>>> project had received over time. The data was sampled at a rate of once >>>> every 90 seconds. You can clearly see the moment when the $600 phone option >>>> ran out. Calculating the trend line for the second half of the graph >>>> indicates that the campaign will raise about $20,000,000 total over the >>>> full period of the campaign, which is not enough. I believe that this is >>>> the reason Canonical introduced the Double Edge option a few minutes ago, >>>> which might boost sales by a little bit more. Hopefully this clarifies my >>>> point. There lines are very smooth. If a company bought 100 units all at >>>> once, there would be a visible blip on the graph, in my opinion. That would >>>> be $60,000 in pledges all at once, which would break the monotony of the >>>> graph. >>>> >>>> [image: Inline image 1] >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM, Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com>wrote: >>>> >>>> I'm not saying companies *couldn't* buy from the indiegogo deal. I'm >>>> just saying the companies with the money to buy from this fundraiser >>>> wouldn't be able to move fast enough to have gotten in on the 1st day of >>>> sales. Companies move slowly for the most part, and I was watching the >>>> sales figures carefully. I've even plotted them on a graph over time as the >>>> data has come in, starting at about $1.5million dollars in sales. I >>>> should've started the data collection earlier, but I stupidly didn't think >>>> to. I watched the number from the start though, even though they weren't >>>> being recorded. The rates were constant. There was no bulk purchase done by >>>> any one company. If you would like to review my numbers, I can send you the >>>> spreadsheet. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:16 AM, Omar B. <estela...@hotmail.com>wrote: >>>> >>>> >Stores and resellers were not purchasing from indiegogo yesterday. >>>> There might have been one or two, but that's simply not what happened. This >>>> whole campaign is all about individuals buying these phones. I don't want >>>> to see this campaign fail anymore than you do. People will either buy them >>>> at $830, or they won't. >>>> >>>> >>>> yes... sure. >>>> >>>> I didn't see anywhere that said limited one per client. >>>> >>>> Or that you shouldn't get involved with business reasons in mind and >>>> get a bunch of them. >>>> >>>> There's nothing to lose at the moment, which makes it even better. In >>>> fact anyone can come in and buy most of the 35k remaining, I don't think >>>> its prohibited. >>>> >>>> I believe even companies got into the discounted 600 tier and took >>>> their share and is why you see 0 in the enterprise tier. Why would you as a >>>> company pay 80/160k when you can pay 60/120k right there (Big discount in >>>> one go), is a no brainer, they wouldn't survive as companies by being dumb >>>> about $, specially on this economy. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Sincerely, >>>> Josh >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Sincerely, >>>> Josh >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Sincerely, >>> Josh >>> >>> -- >>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>> >>> >>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>> >>> >>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>> >>> > > > -- > Sincerely, > Josh > -- Sincerely, Josh
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