Yes, but that will most likely be the the middle number. With a few ups and downs. 23 mill would be easy if the average hit 1000 a couple times. Plus every good Fundraiser that's well publisized has a big surge at the end. Humans being un-mathematical in their actions means numbers are just rough estimates.
I'm very optimistic, only question is, do I wanna switch to GSM right now. Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com> wrote: >Correction, "The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic", where >"that" >refers to your $80,000,000 number. The real numbers aren't nearly >*that* optimistic. >They're in the range of $20,000,000 or so for all pledges combined >throughout the next month. > > >On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com> >wrote: > >> If you look at my graph, the average is significantly skewed by the >$600 >> perk. The average slope for the 2nd half of the graph is $605.43 per >90 >> seconds. The real numbers aren't nearly that optimistic, which fits >with >> what I said in my earlier emails. >> >> >> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 11:13 AM, Daniel Clem <clem11...@gmail.com> >wrote: >> >>> If that trend holds there will be a total of almost 80,000,000. >Obviously >>> it will have ups and downs, but even half that average would reach >the >>> goal. Will re-investigate GSM's signal strength in my area, as well >as data >>> plans. >>> >>> >>> Josh Leverette <coder...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>> The only number I'm writing down is the total funding amount so far >at >>>> each interval, I'm not writing anything down about individual >users. I feel >>>> like anything more than just looking at the total would be kind of >sketchy. >>>> I ran some analysis and out of all of the 90 second periods, the >most >>>> amount of contribution that the project received was $18,432 total >during >>>> one 90 second interval. The average so far has been about $2,607 >per 90 >>>> second interval. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:56 AM, Omar B. <estela...@hotmail.com> >wrote: >>>> >>>>> Nice, thx for recording the data and the graph. >>>>> >>>>> did you get any data on individuals who may had purchased multiple >>>>> times consecutively? , how many each individual got ? >>>>> >>>>> I Think indiegogo only lets you select one perk even if you add >more >>>>> cash to the amount. >>>>> >>>>> So it wouldn't be a surprise if some made multiple purchases >>>>> consecutively. >>>>> >>>>> Anyway this will be a crucial week, hope their double edge and >other >>>>> perks get mass acceptance. >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> From: coder...@gmail.com >>>>> Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 10:41:00 -0500 >>>>> >>>>> Subject: Re: [Ubuntu-phone] Ubuntu Edge (the Ubuntu handset) >>>>> To: estela...@hotmail.com >>>>> CC: ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Actually, this will probably help. This is the amount of funding >the >>>>> project had received over time. The data was sampled at a rate of >once >>>>> every 90 seconds. You can clearly see the moment when the $600 >phone option >>>>> ran out. Calculating the trend line for the second half of the >graph >>>>> indicates that the campaign will raise about $20,000,000 total >over the >>>>> full period of the campaign, which is not enough. I believe that >this is >>>>> the reason Canonical introduced the Double Edge option a few >minutes ago, >>>>> which might boost sales by a little bit more. Hopefully this >clarifies my >>>>> point. There lines are very smooth. If a company bought 100 units >all at >>>>> once, there would be a visible blip on the graph, in my opinion. >That would >>>>> be $60,000 in pledges all at once, which would break the monotony >of the >>>>> graph. >>>>> >>>>> [image: Inline image 1] >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:34 AM, Josh Leverette ><coder...@gmail.com>wrote: >>>>> >>>>> I'm not saying companies *couldn't* buy from the indiegogo deal. >I'm >>>>> just saying the companies with the money to buy from this >fundraiser >>>>> wouldn't be able to move fast enough to have gotten in on the 1st >day of >>>>> sales. Companies move slowly for the most part, and I was watching >the >>>>> sales figures carefully. I've even plotted them on a graph over >time as the >>>>> data has come in, starting at about $1.5million dollars in sales. >I >>>>> should've started the data collection earlier, but I stupidly >didn't think >>>>> to. I watched the number from the start though, even though they >weren't >>>>> being recorded. The rates were constant. There was no bulk >purchase done by >>>>> any one company. If you would like to review my numbers, I can >send you the >>>>> spreadsheet. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 10:16 AM, Omar B. ><estela...@hotmail.com>wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >Stores and resellers were not purchasing from indiegogo >yesterday. >>>>> There might have been one or two, but that's simply not what >happened. This >>>>> whole campaign is all about individuals buying these phones. I >don't want >>>>> to see this campaign fail anymore than you do. People will either >buy them >>>>> at $830, or they won't. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> yes... sure. >>>>> >>>>> I didn't see anywhere that said limited one per client. >>>>> >>>>> Or that you shouldn't get involved with business reasons in mind >and >>>>> get a bunch of them. >>>>> >>>>> There's nothing to lose at the moment, which makes it even better. >In >>>>> fact anyone can come in and buy most of the 35k remaining, I don't >think >>>>> its prohibited. >>>>> >>>>> I believe even companies got into the discounted 600 tier and took >>>>> their share and is why you see 0 in the enterprise tier. Why would >you as a >>>>> company pay 80/160k when you can pay 60/120k right there (Big >discount in >>>>> one go), is a no brainer, they wouldn't survive as companies by >being dumb >>>>> about $, specially on this economy. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Sincerely, >>>>> Josh >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Sincerely, >>>>> Josh >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Sincerely, >>>> Josh >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> >>>> >>>> Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net >>>> Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone >>>> >>>> >>>> More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp >>>> >>>> >> >> >> -- >> Sincerely, >> Josh >> > > > >-- >Sincerely, > Josh
-- Mailing list: https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone Post to : ubuntu-phone@lists.launchpad.net Unsubscribe : https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-phone More help : https://help.launchpad.net/ListHelp