At 02:30 PM 4/21/2002 -0700, Kelsey Cummings wrote:
>On Sun, Apr 21, 2002 at 05:06:55PM -0400, Eric S. Johansson wrote:
> > So, any ideas on:
> >
> >       number of active spammers per day
>
>NFC
>
> >       number of pieces of Spam sent per day
>
>I support ~30k users, I see ~1.5m messages a day, and block ~1m of them as
>spam

is this you see 1.5 million spam or you see 1.5 million messages total with 
one million of them being spam?


> >       number of people receiving Spam everyday
>
>NFC
>
> >       total population of e-mail users
>
>NFC but I'm guessing it's the same # as above.

I've heard that the total population of Internet users is roughly in the 
range of one billion.  Let's extrapolate your numbers (a dangerous 
proposition I know but it can be fun).

given the confusion above, let's pick the lower number of the two possible.

if 30,000 users get a 1 million pieces of spam, then that works out to 
approximately 33 pieces of spam per user per day.  Extrapolating to one 
billion users, this works out to 33 billion pieces of spam per day 
worldwide.  This is probably high by at least a factor of 2 to 4 given the 
history of net growth and how spammers acquire e-mail addresses.  So let's 
say it's closer to 8 billion pieces of spam per day.

Good golly.  That's a lot of spam.

Given that high-end Pentium 4 machines can generate a hashcash coin once 
every three seconds on average, that means one would need

one machine generates 28,800 coins per day which means you would need 
277,777 machines running 24 by 7 to generate all the necessary coins.  If 
the net really does pass closer to 30 million pieces of spam per day, will 
be looking at 1.1 million machines necessary for generating coins.  But 
even if the model is off by an order of magnitude, we are still looking at 
somewhere between 30,000 and 100,000 additional machines necessary for 
spammers to be able to deliver their wares.

modeling solutions can be lots of fun.  when I get the write-up done, I'll 
post a pointer.

---eric


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