Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

I was doing an in-depth review of Hunter's paper over the extended weekend... I think I now see the value of the MM algorithms, and the understand the divergence problem. MM has the nice property that convergence is guaranteed. Newton-Raphson (N-R) carries no such guarantee. The paper includes

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Jason House wrote: Given that doing one parameter at a time may be less ideal, I don't know if my method would really inherit those properties or not. Probably not, because the Hessian has significant non-diagonal values. But I expect it would still converge in less iterations than MM.

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 21, 2007 10:03 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I am sure MM is a perfectly good algorithm for this purpose, but it has > the serious down side that I don't understand it. :) I do understand the > general idea behind it and how it works in some simple cases, but I don't > know

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 21, 2007 8:53 AM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Hi, > > Minorization-maximization is a simple optimization method, and I agree > that it is likely that more efficient algorithms can be applied. > > Newton's method implies estimating the inverse of the Hessian matrix. > Really com

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 21, 2007 8:53 AM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Hi, > > Minorization-maximization is a simple optimization method, and I agree > that it is likely that more efficient algorithms can be applied. > > Newton's method implies estimating the inverse of the Hessian matrix. > Really com

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Hi, Minorization-maximization is a simple optimization method, and I agree that it is likely that more efficient algorithms can be applied. Newton's method implies estimating the inverse of the Hessian matrix. Really computing the inverse has a cost cubic in the size of the matrix, so it is

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 20, 2007 10:36 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 20, 2007 5:39 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Over lunch I thought of another way of doing it that would be very > > general and easy to implement. Basically, I can compute the log-likelihood > > for a

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 20, 2007 5:39 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I was trying to come up with my own algorithm to maximize likelihood and I > am having a hard time getting it all in my mind. I managed to write a > working algorithm for the case of logistic regression, but it was kind of > brittl

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 20, 2007 11:43 AM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I seem to have more time to think than to code lately. I believe I've > derived an alternate update method. > Thinking more, I realize I messed up a three things... For one, Newton-Raphson requires new gamma - gamma = -*L/**L i

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

I was trying to come up with my own algorithm to maximize likelihood and I am having a hard time getting it all in my mind. I managed to write a working algorithm for the case of logistic regression, but it was kind of brittle and I didn't know how to extend it to the softmax case, which is what I

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 5, 2007 4:44 AM, Lars <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I have some questions concernig this paper of Remi: > http://remi.coulom.free.fr/Amsterdam2007/MMGoPatterns.pdf > > @Remi: How many iterations you had used? > > Anyone of you have similar or other experiences with the algorithm? I seem t

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 12, 2007 4:27 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Clearly I'm missing something, because I still don't understand. Let's > > take a simple example of a move is on the 3rd line and has a gamma value of > > 1.75. What is the equation or sequence of discrete values that I can > > t

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Jason House wrote: On Dec 12, 2007 3:09 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: On Dec 12, 2007 3:05 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: On Dec 12, 2007 2:59 PM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 12, 2007 3:31 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 12, 2007 3:09 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > On Dec 12, 2007 3:05 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > On Dec 12, 2007 2:59 PM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 12, 2007 3:09 PM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 12, 2007 3:05 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > On Dec 12, 2007 2:59 PM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > Do you mean a plot of the prediction rate with only the > > > > gamma of

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 12, 2007 3:05 PM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 12, 2007 2:59 PM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Do you mean a plot of the prediction rate with only the > > > gamma of interest varying? > > > > No the prediction rate, but the probability of the training

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 12, 2007 2:59 PM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Do you mean a plot of the prediction rate with only the > > gamma of interest varying? > > No the prediction rate, but the probability of the training data. More > precisely, the logarithm of that probability. I still don't know

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Jason House wrote: On Dec 6, 2007 11:38 AM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: Jason House wrote: > > This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign > values to the patterns. I did not mention this in my paper, but you c

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 6, 2007 11:38 AM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Jason House wrote: > > > > This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign > > values to the patterns. > > I did not mention this in my paper, but you can rather easily estimate > uncertainty margins around Elo va

Re[2]: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Yes! You are write. I haven't mentioned this. It's a good idea to swap them all in the form that black has the move-right. Thank you! I'll fix that. But not today ;) If you find any inconsistencies in the data please let me know! By the way: I forgot to cut the file at the end. You should only u

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Jason House wrote: This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign values to the patterns. I did not mention this in my paper, but you can rather easily estimate uncertainty margins around Elo values. This involves computing the second-order derivative of the probability

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 6, 2007 10:13 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 6, 2007 10:06 AM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > On Dec 6, 2007 7:13 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > 88|0|17.033168 > > > 88|1|12.263955 > > > > > > and > > > > > > 164|0|17.38

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 6, 2007 10:06 AM, Jason House <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Dec 6, 2007 7:13 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > 88|0|17.033168 > > 88|1|12.263955 > > > > and > > > > 164|0|17.388714 > > 164|1|25.862695 > > > > Are identical except for swapping the roles of white and bla

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 6, 2007 7:13 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > 88|0|17.033168 > 88|1|12.263955 > > and > > 164|0|17.388714 > 164|1|25.862695 > > Are identical except for swapping the roles of white and black Curiously, the gamma values in your example are way different 17.033168 vs 25.862595

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Oh, I didn't notice at first that the player-to-move was encoded seperatly from the pattern shape. On Dec 6, 2007 9:53 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > On Dec 6, 2007 9:31 AM, Chris Fant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > But then you lose information on player-to-move, right? > > N

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 6, 2007 9:31 AM, Chris Fant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > But then you lose information on player-to-move, right? No. What I am saying is that it is as urgent for black to play on . . . . . X X O . as it is for white to play in . . . . . O O X . Precisely one way of implementing what I

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

But then you lose information on player-to-move, right? On Dec 6, 2007 7:18 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Oh, I see you have applied the symmetries, but not the swapping of roles. > Still, this should probably be done and cut the number of gamma values in > half. > > Álvaro. > > >

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Oh, I see you have applied the symmetries, but not the swapping of roles. Still, this should probably be done and cut the number of gamma values in half. Álvaro. On Dec 6, 2007 7:13 AM, Álvaro Begué <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Thanks for the file! This should be very helpful when I try to repr

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Thanks for the file! This should be very helpful when I try to reproduce results. It looks like you are not taking advantage of symmetries. For instance, 88|0|17.033168 88|1|12.263955 and 164|0|17.388714 164|1|25.862695 Are identical except for swapping the roles of white and black (88 == 1120

[computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Lars wrote: > Anyone of you have similar or other experiences with the algorithm? I use at runtime the same Bradley-Terry formulas Remí introduces in his paper. That is a huge advance compared to "naif urgency" scores because it gives a measure of how hard it was to "win" for a move candidate. B

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

While you can find the gamma-values of non-shape patterns in the paper of Remi, I can give you the list of shape-pattern gamma-values. The source-code is mixed with my engine-code, which i don't like to publish. But the algorithm is more or less easy to implement.. I'll try to attach the file to

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 5, 2007 3:17 PM, Lars <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Thank you for your explanations! > You were right, it was a bug, and now it works really fine. > Are you (or Remi) willing to publish any of the following? 1. Source code for extracting ELO ratings for moves 2. Full list of gamma values, i

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Thank you for your explanations! You were right, it was a bug, and now it works really fine. My results look more or less similar than yours now. But I still don't understand where you get the standard deviation 302 from. But the mean 0 is clear now! ;) @Jason: Thank you although! I'm already

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

On Dec 5, 2007 4:44 AM, Lars <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > 2. I had run the algorithm on 400 games (including handicap-games) from > the same game-records source Remi used (Section 3.2), but i used an > other month. I concidered only 3x3 shape-patterns and simple non-shape > pattern including dist-

Re: [computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

Lars wrote: I have some questions concernig this paper of Remi: http://remi.coulom.free.fr/Amsterdam2007/MMGoPatterns.pdf 1. Which sense make the prior (Section 3.3 in the paper and where is the application? I understand it the way that you put 2 more competitions to each pattern in the minoriza

[computer-go] ELO Ratings of move pattern

I have some questions concernig this paper of Remi: http://remi.coulom.free.fr/Amsterdam2007/MMGoPatterns.pdf 1. Which sense make the prior (Section 3.3 in the paper and where is the application? I understand it the way that you put 2 more competitions to each pattern in the minorization-maximizat