On Dec 6, 2007 11:38 AM, Rémi Coulom <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Jason House wrote: > > > > This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign > > values to the patterns. > > I did not mention this in my paper, but you can rather easily estimate > uncertainty margins around Elo values. This involves computing the > second-order derivative of the probability distribution with respect to > log(gamma). Since the distribution has a shape that looks very much like > a Gaussian, the second-order derivative at the maximum is a good > estimation of -1/sigma². That is how I compute confidence intervals in > bayeselo. >
What do you mean by the probability distribution with respect to log(gamma)? Do you mean a plot of the prediction rate with only the gamma of interest varying?
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