Jason House wrote:
This may serve as a good test of if there is enough data to assign values to the patterns.
I did not mention this in my paper, but you can rather easily estimate uncertainty margins around Elo values. This involves computing the second-order derivative of the probability distribution with respect to log(gamma). Since the distribution has a shape that looks very much like a Gaussian, the second-order derivative at the maximum is a good estimation of -1/sigma². That is how I compute confidence intervals in bayeselo.
Also, in the conclusion of my paper, I suggest that it may be better to avoid using consecutive positions in the same game as learning data, because they are not independent, and the whole learning process assumes independence. Some quick experiments I made tend to indicate that this is important. Using 3 times more games, and keeping only one position out of 3 improved learning. I did not investigate this very deeply, so I cannot give more precise data, but keep in mind that it is dangerous to use consecutive positions because their are too similar, and may lead to over-estimation of the confidence in pattern evaluation.
Rémi _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list computer-go@computer-go.org http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
