[Edited Message Follows]
[Reason: Apologies. Editorial corrections.]

On Sun, Mar 2, 2025 at 08:02 AM, hari kumar wrote:

> 
> I do think that just as most Marxist-Leninists and Marxists would
> generally agree that the rule of an capitalist ruling class domestically
> in a single state - is most unlikely to be overcome by the proletarian or
> toilers except by the use of force. There may be rare exceptions - but
> overall it is most unlikely to happen peacefully. I think in the
> international imperialist realm similar considerations apply.

I don't the analogy does apply, Hari.  I also don't know of any instance when 
the transfer of power *between* classes has occurred peacefully, and it would 
be no different if the working class were to try to seize state power today. 
But there have been many shifts of power *within* classes - for example, from 
large agrarian producers favouring protection to manufacturers favouring free 
trade or from craft to industrial workers - where conflicts have been resolved 
by political and economic pressures rather than by military means.  Even today, 
US, European, and Asian transnationals backed by their respective states 
aggressively compete with each other without these conflicts erupting into war.

The competition with the Soviet Union was a different matter. Its wholly 
state-owned model posed an existential threat to capitalism in the context of 
already widespread class struggle which it encouraged and further developed 
through the worldwide formation of mass Communist parties. The Soviets were 
twice invaded by imperialist powers - immediately after the October revolution 
and then by the Nazis in WW II. As it happened, the allied imperialist powers 
came to the aid of the USSR in WW II but this was a marriage of convenience 
forced on them by the simultaneous efforts of Germany and its Axis partners to 
contest their domination of the world economy. If the Soviets had not developed 
nuclear weapons, the subsequent Cold War with the Americans would have been a 
hot one instead.  It's telling when the USSR finally collapsed, it did not 
result from war but from sustained economic pressure from the more advanced and 
prosperous West and its own internal rot at the state level and other 
contradictions.

Frankly, I'm surprised to see all the drum-beating for an inevitable or likely 
war with China since many on the list who hold this view don’t see much 
difference between the two social systems. China is widely characterized as 
“state capitalist” and it doesn't actively seek to export its ideology. The 
only real influence it wields abroad is not through mass parties of 
anti-capitalist workers but with aspiring entrepreneurs, intellectuals, and 
politicians in emerging markets (and even in the West) who prefer its model of 
state-directed capitalism to the older US private sector model it sees as 
stagnating and in decline.  I also noted previously that China does not have a 
closed economic system as did the USSR and its allies but instead welcomes 
foreign capital and has energetically sought for decades to integrate more 
fully into the global capitalist economy.

This is why I think it is more rather than less likely that the US and China 
will resolve their increasing economic rivalry short of war which could quickly 
turn nuclear though, like yourself, I'm not insisting that mine is the 
"certain" or "inevitable" outcome,  just my attempt at reasonably informed 
speculation.


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