On Sun, Mar 2, 2025 at 08:02 AM, hari kumar wrote:

> 
> I do think that just as most Marxist-Leninists and Marxists would
> generally agree that the rule of an capitalist ruling class domestically
> in a single state - is most unlikely to be overcome by the proletarian or
> toilers except by the use of force. There may be rare exceptions - but
> overall it is most unlikely to happen peacefully. I think in the
> international imperialist realm similar considerations apply.

I don't the the analogy does apply, Hari.  I also don't know of any instance 
when the transfer of power *between* classes has occured peacefully, and it 
would be no different if the working class were to try to seize state power 
today. But there have been many shifts of power *within* classes - for example, 
from large agrarian producers favoiring protection to manufacturers favouring 
free trade or from craft to industrial workers - where conflcits have been 
resolved by political and economic pressures rather than military means.  Even 
today, US, Eueropean, and Asian transnationals backed by their respective 
states aggressively compete with each other without these erupting into war.

The competition with the Soviet Union was a different matter. Its wholly 
state-owned model posed an existential threat to capitalism in the context of 
already widespread class struggle which it encouraged and further deverloped 
through the worldwide formation of mass Communit parties. The Soviets were 
twice invaded by imperialist powers - immediately after the October revolution 
and then by the Nazis in WW II. As it happened, the allied imperialist powers 
came to the aid of the USSR in WW II but this was a marriage of convenience 
forced on them by the simultaneous efforts of Germany and its Axis partners to 
contest their domination of the world economy. If the Soviets had not developed 
nuclear weapons, the subsequent Cold War with the Americans would have been a 
hot one instead.  It's telling when the USSR collapsed, it did not result from 
war but from sustained economic pressure from the more advanced and prosperous 
West and its own internal rot at the state level and other contradictions.

Frankly, I'm surprised to see all the drum-beating for an inevitable or likely 
war with China since many on the list who promote it don’t see much difference 
between the two social systems. China is widely characterized as “state 
capitalist” and it doesnt actively seek to export its ideology. The only real 
influence it wields abroad is not through mass parties of anti-capitalist 
workers but among aspiring entrepreneurs, intellectuals, and politicians in 
emerging markets (and even in the West) who prefer its model of state-directed 
capitalism to the older US private sector model it sees as stagnating and in 
decline. I also noted previously that China does not have  its own 
self-contained economic system as did the USSR and its allies but instead 
welcomes foreign capital and has energetically sought to integrate into the 
glonal capitalist economy.

This is why I think it is more rather than less likely that the US and China 
will resolve their differences short of war which could quickly turn nuclear 
though, like yourself, I'm not insisting that mine is the "certain" or 
"inevitable" outcome,  just my attempt at reasonably informed speculation.


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