So the key distillation is that:
1. The public-sector layoffs are real and completed (so, cemented in
the
past).
2. The offsetting private-sector new jobs are aspirational, something
the
“administration aims to” accomplish as a consequence of
“stimulat[ing]
economic growth”. The quotes from Milei use the past tense, as if
this
were also (like the layoffs) completed, but the AI summary unpacks
them as
aspirational.
Point 2 is a pretty standard neoliberal claim, on which there are
many
variants. Where the rubber meets the road, then, is determining
whether
the projected outcomes have been happening, if so how far along they
are
relative to the claims, and to what extent the causation
(stimulation) is
supported.
Increasingly, going forward, for non-experts to figure out what data
are
reliable (especially on macro-things), and what kinds of causal
analysis
are as-valid-as-we-can-expect in these fields, will be both important
and
difficult.
About things that don’t really matter, I don’t mind idly
speculating, and
it is a fun exercise in arm-chair lucubration. But for stuff that
matters,
I am increasingly bothered by the fact that I don’t have reliable
tracks to
do almost-anything in these areas. The thing that fights off a
program of
atomizing the society, and making people cynical and apathetic, is
having
the ability to get things right by methods you know and can repeat.
Would
be nice to build that up.
Eric
On Nov 20, 2024, at 7:28 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <
piet...@randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
I asked MS Copilot and she gave the following answer:
Me:
Please help clarify this for me? In an interview, Javier Milei, the
President of Argentina, made two seemingly contradictory claims: (a)
50,000
public employees were laid off, and (b) not a single job was lost.
How can
both statements be true? What actually happened in Argentina over the
past
year?
MS Copilot:
Javier Milei's statements might seem contradictory at first, but
they
can be understood in the context of his broader economic policies and
the
specific actions taken by his administration.
What Happened in Argentina
• Layoffs of Public Employees:
• Javier Milei's administration laid off a
significant
number of public employees. Reports indicate that around 50,000 state
employees were laid off as part of his efforts to reduce government
spending and streamline the public sector2. This move was part of a
broader
strategy to cut public spending and reduce the national deficit.
• Economic Context:
• Argentina has been facing severe economic
challenges,
including high inflation and a struggling economy. Milei's
administration
has implemented various austerity measures to address these issues,
which
included reducing the number of public sector employees.
• Private Sector Job Creation:
• Despite the layoffs in the public sector, Milei's
administration has been focused on creating jobs in the private
sector. The
claim that "not a single job was lost" likely refers to the overall
employment situation, where the administration aims to offset public
sector
job losses with private sector job creation. This approach is
intended to
stimulate economic growth and reduce the burden on the state.
Summary
While the layoffs of public employees are a fact, the claim that
"not a
single job was lost" can be interpreted as an assertion that the
overall
employment situation has not worsened due to efforts to create jobs
in the
private sector. This reflects Milei's broader economic strategy of
reducing
government expenditure while promoting private sector growth.
Does this help clarify the situation for you?
References:
1reason.com2buenosairesherald.com3www.batimes.com.ar
On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 01:02, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote:
How can you have "laid off 50,000 public employees so far [...]
while
[...] not losing jobs."? Are public employees not working at jobs?
Are
jobs not lost if you destroy them on purpose?
-- rec --
On Wed, Nov 20, 2024 at 10:05 AM Marcus Daniels
<mar...@snoutfarm.com>
wrote:
Axios may be on to something. MSNBC is more like therapy than
news.
From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter
Steenekamp <
piet...@randcontrols.co.za>
Date: Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:57 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
friam@redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Javier Milei
Claude deserves some applause for doing a solid job summarizing the
podcast — well done! The conclusion, "As with any extreme ideology,
a
degree of skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence validates
the
theories," seems pretty spot-on. It’s a good reminder that bold
ideas often
need to prove themselves in the wild.
I’m genuinely curious to see how things play out in the next year
or so.
Let’s be honest, Argentina could really use a win when it comes to
improving things. Fingers crossed for fewer missteps and more
meaningful
strides forward!
On Wed, 20 Nov 2024 at 18:03, glen <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote:
Nearly 2 hrs? No thanks. Here's Claude's summation, FWIW.
--------------------
Claim 1: Milei says he came to understand the ideas of freedom and
Austrian economics in 2013-2014 after reading works by Rothbard,
Mises,
Hayek and others. This caused a "revolution" in his thinking.
Claim 2: Milei describes himself as an anarcho-capitalist in
principle,
but a minarchist in practice given real-world constraints. He wants
to
minimize the state as much as possible.
Claim 3: Upon taking office, Milei says Argentina had annual
inflation
heading towards 17,000%, poverty near 50%, fiscal deficits of 15% of
GDP,
and was on the brink of hyperinflation and economic collapse.
Claim 4: Milei says his government achieved fiscal balance in its
first
month, cut ministries by over half, laid off 50,000 public employees
so
far, cut social plans, and reduced inflation from a 17,000% annual
rate to
2.4% in six months, all while avoiding price controls and not losing
jobs.
Claim 5: Milei's goal is to make Argentina the freest country in the
world through deregulation and free market reforms. He believes this
will
dramatically increase GDP per capita.
Claim 6: Milei is aligned geopolitically with the US and Israel,
which
he sees as representing freedom and Western liberal democracy against
autocracy. He wants stronger trade ties with the US.
Claim 7: Milei believes free market capitalism is the best system
for
human cooperation and prosperity. He rejects the notion of market
failures
and says neoclassical economics enables harmful government
interventions.
In summary, Milei makes bold claims about rapidly improving
Argentina's
economy through free market policies. More data over time is needed
to
fully assess the results. His broader philosophical arguments express
common libertarian/anarcho-capitalist views, which are influential in
some
circles but rejected by many mainstream economists and experts. As
with any
extreme ideology, a degree of skepticism is warranted until
real-world
evidence validates the theories.
On 11/20/24 01:29, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
I’m not entirely convinced this group will be moonwalking with
joy over
Javier Milei’s actions, but I must admit I’m intrigued by what he
claims to
have achieved in Argentina over the past year, as he shared on Lex
Fridman’s podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk <
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk> .
--
ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙
ꙮ
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