So the key distillation is that: 1. The public-sector layoffs are real and completed (so, cemented in the past). 2. The offsetting private-sector new jobs are aspirational, something the “administration aims to” accomplish as a consequence of “stimulat[ing] economic growth”. The quotes from Milei use the past tense, as if this were also (like the layoffs) completed, but the AI summary unpacks them as aspirational.
Point 2 is a pretty standard neoliberal claim, on which there are many variants. Where the rubber meets the road, then, is determining whether the projected outcomes have been happening, if so how far along they are relative to the claims, and to what extent the causation (stimulation) is supported. Increasingly, going forward, for non-experts to figure out what data are reliable (especially on macro-things), and what kinds of causal analysis are as-valid-as-we-can-expect in these fields, will be both important and difficult. About things that don’t really matter, I don’t mind idly speculating, and it is a fun exercise in arm-chair lucubration. But for stuff that matters, I am increasingly bothered by the fact that I don’t have reliable tracks to do almost-anything in these areas. The thing that fights off a program of atomizing the society, and making people cynical and apathetic, is having the ability to get things right by methods you know and can repeat. Would be nice to build that up. Eric > On Nov 20, 2024, at 7:28 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <piet...@randcontrols.co.za> > wrote: > > I asked MS Copilot and she gave the following answer: > > Me: > Please help clarify this for me? In an interview, Javier Milei, the President > of Argentina, made two seemingly contradictory claims: (a) 50,000 public > employees were laid off, and (b) not a single job was lost. How can both > statements be true? What actually happened in Argentina over the past year? > MS Copilot: > Javier Milei's statements might seem contradictory at first, but they can be > understood in the context of his broader economic policies and the specific > actions taken by his administration. > > What Happened in Argentina > > • Layoffs of Public Employees: > > • Javier Milei's administration laid off a significant number > of public employees. Reports indicate that around 50,000 state employees were > laid off as part of his efforts to reduce government spending and streamline > the public sector2. This move was part of a broader strategy to cut public > spending and reduce the national deficit. > > • Economic Context: > > • Argentina has been facing severe economic challenges, > including high inflation and a struggling economy. Milei's administration has > implemented various austerity measures to address these issues, which > included reducing the number of public sector employees. > > • Private Sector Job Creation: > > • Despite the layoffs in the public sector, Milei's > administration has been focused on creating jobs in the private sector. The > claim that "not a single job was lost" likely refers to the overall > employment situation, where the administration aims to offset public sector > job losses with private sector job creation. This approach is intended to > stimulate economic growth and reduce the burden on the state. > > Summary > > While the layoffs of public employees are a fact, the claim that "not a > single job was lost" can be interpreted as an assertion that the overall > employment situation has not worsened due to efforts to create jobs in the > private sector. This reflects Milei's broader economic strategy of reducing > government expenditure while promoting private sector growth. > > Does this help clarify the situation for you? > > References: > 1reason.com2buenosairesherald.com3www.batimes.com.ar > > > On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 01:02, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > How can you have "laid off 50,000 public employees so far [...] while [...] > not losing jobs."? Are public employees not working at jobs? Are jobs not > lost if you destroy them on purpose? > > -- rec -- > > On Wed, Nov 20, 2024 at 10:05 AM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > Axios may be on to something. MSNBC is more like therapy than news. > > > > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp > <piet...@randcontrols.co.za> > Date: Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:57 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Javier Milei > > Claude deserves some applause for doing a solid job summarizing the podcast — > well done! The conclusion, "As with any extreme ideology, a degree of > skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence validates the theories," > seems pretty spot-on. It’s a good reminder that bold ideas often need to > prove themselves in the wild. > > I’m genuinely curious to see how things play out in the next year or so. > Let’s be honest, Argentina could really use a win when it comes to improving > things. Fingers crossed for fewer missteps and more meaningful strides > forward! > > > > On Wed, 20 Nov 2024 at 18:03, glen <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Nearly 2 hrs? No thanks. Here's Claude's summation, FWIW. > > -------------------- > Claim 1: Milei says he came to understand the ideas of freedom and Austrian > economics in 2013-2014 after reading works by Rothbard, Mises, Hayek and > others. This caused a "revolution" in his thinking. > > Claim 2: Milei describes himself as an anarcho-capitalist in principle, but a > minarchist in practice given real-world constraints. He wants to minimize the > state as much as possible. > > Claim 3: Upon taking office, Milei says Argentina had annual inflation > heading towards 17,000%, poverty near 50%, fiscal deficits of 15% of GDP, and > was on the brink of hyperinflation and economic collapse. > > Claim 4: Milei says his government achieved fiscal balance in its first > month, cut ministries by over half, laid off 50,000 public employees so far, > cut social plans, and reduced inflation from a 17,000% annual rate to 2.4% in > six months, all while avoiding price controls and not losing jobs. > > Claim 5: Milei's goal is to make Argentina the freest country in the world > through deregulation and free market reforms. He believes this will > dramatically increase GDP per capita. > > Claim 6: Milei is aligned geopolitically with the US and Israel, which he > sees as representing freedom and Western liberal democracy against autocracy. > He wants stronger trade ties with the US. > > Claim 7: Milei believes free market capitalism is the best system for human > cooperation and prosperity. He rejects the notion of market failures and says > neoclassical economics enables harmful government interventions. > > In summary, Milei makes bold claims about rapidly improving Argentina's > economy through free market policies. More data over time is needed to fully > assess the results. His broader philosophical arguments express common > libertarian/anarcho-capitalist views, which are influential in some circles > but rejected by many mainstream economists and experts. As with any extreme > ideology, a degree of skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence > validates the theories. > > On 11/20/24 01:29, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: >> I’m not entirely convinced this group will be moonwalking with joy over >> Javier Milei’s actions, but I must admit I’m intrigued by what he claims to >> have achieved in Argentina over the past year, as he shared on Lex Fridman’s >> podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk >> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk>. > > -- > ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... > --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,laHV_9IRw7AWCp3-JTAeX2yIdDgmXh485n7jWeOK8F7KtAczEJKm6kBpyU7b_JrhTjJ4SF-qZSAqlaZE30hGQXwXcUY99t00BNqisuqZMVU-fOZWVeo,&typo=1 > to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,5kbAg3fbp5rqvp0vCmcm_uFSZihvXYf4hz-BiCtiD0Idw6uIDBIgU4C5g3Dvka2Z5yF8Rel4euCQAlwurAs5Efsdg8IyzsGuy3xGcW8b5LOoNyChYw,,&typo=1 > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,zhr0iw4LzrkVD2mpkXt_Vg3etN2P0xkosZnmRHbXiDwk5hfg4RwCeyWmKaf_4DeuEGNWY3GghWtWBXEU9fR619y6FnbCLUlyod6y1RcVuecpoQ,,&typo=1 > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,cTqRBlpMta_Y8FlaJuTKE9u31WB2Aca82tejnvO7yvo3OWyMtiPIDATJgyoDZyt1D91vO0ySEwQDjBtieRMN--gGzXF0s10frF6ja4Z53mtXw0Vxmg9AvEc,&typo=1 > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. 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